Metasequoia

3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

you gotta love tracking snowstorms...one day its to far south...the next day its to far north...theres time for more wobbles before it gets here...

In theory, the size of the wobbles diminish every subsequent model run and we are only 48 hours out.

Seems like with these types of events it's very difficult to predict where the thermal boundary sets up. I certainly don't trust the forecast 3 or 4 days out. I'd rather be in Poughkeepsie for this,  but I think NYC has a shot at a prolonged period of frozen precipitation. As crappy as this Winter has been, I'll take it.

Seems like we need several things to go right for decent accumulating snow near NYC because of the marginal temps...hence it would be wise to keep evs weenie hopes in check. Basically, it's a no go unless there is a very strong low bombing out south of the area, taking a benchmark track. A beautifuly placed 990 mb low ain't going to cut it...nor will a 970 mb low tucked into the coast. I'm holding out some hope for perfection, but the odds are not on our side. 

3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

That’s just east of the benchmark right?

Looks like it's a tad north and east...

Per the New England folks. EPS looks promising at this range.

4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Euro looks good let’s see what the next frame shows...

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011912&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&m=ecmwf_full#

Much better website for EURO.

Snow is actually sticking to things other than car tops...nice change of pace for Manhattan.

Snowing in Battery Park City.

Looks like radar is filling in nicely for NYC as well.

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

you do realize its 9:50am... the main show is later this afternoon.

That and the banding on either side of NYC isn't that strong.

21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Just saw the whole run

6+ for NYC  west with some 10 inch marks in North NJ.

I'm cherry picking obviously, but this wouldn't suck.

Can't quite tell what latesr Ukie run indicates. Saw this on NE forum...

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Still watching for the potential of a coastal around the 20th

If only 00Z CMC would verify...

Just landed at LGA. Looks like all snow to me.

Any mets care to weigh in on possibly of thundersnow? How do those soundings look?

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is colder than 12z.

Best precip is along the coast

6-10 for NYC and areas just to the north and west of the city.

Axis of heaviest snow is right over NYC and along coast.

10 to 1 ratio would give NYC 6 to 12 inches.

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro would pretty much change NYC over to rain

Looks like it doesn't change to rain in NYC, but maybe you've looked at thermals.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019030212/new-jersey/significant-weather/20190304-0800z.html

We are within 24 or so hours of the first flakes. Seems like we should start focussing more on shorter range models.

Courtesy of the NE forum...12Z UKIE.

I think this is NYC's storm...and LHV + Central NJ + LI.

A wider vantage point. Would be impressive if this verifies. I'd like to see LI join in the fun...

10 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Wouldn't go that far necessarily. Caving implies still in the process, which could mean a lot of things. 

But some hard stats would be nice if anyone could oblige?

We'll see.

I would love to see a EURO clownmap if someone has one. I suspect it's 8 plus for NYC based on the use of the word, "caving".

Just now, weatherpruf said:

I thought this was good. I'm confused here.

It is good in this instance...