Metasequoia

Maybe there's something to the idea of a transfer to low off Virginia afterall...

3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

This is a wee bit painful,,this waiting = Ukie anyone ?

From the New England forum. Check them out.  They post a lot of good stuff that's often relevant to us.

0Z Ukie looks good fo Me. Would love to have soundings...

Per NE forum.  00Z Ukie came east.

Not that it matters, but here's my take...

SECS - 6 TO 12

MECS - 12 TO 18

HECS - 18 TO 30

BECS - 30 PLUS

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I actually think 3-5" of sleet would be pretty interesting. Doubt that's what actually happens though. 

The march 14th, 2017 storm gave NYC around 5 inches of sleet. It honestly was pretty interesting...and painful to be outside in. The sleet was so loud...kinda awesome. Not a weather event I'll ever forget. 

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah the only other 12Z model that really resembled the Euro on the overrunning was the NAM.  Everything else wants to just destroy the overrunning stuff or have it way more south  

I don't mind a EURO / NAM combo...

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

that includes tonights rain ?

Yes. About a tenth or so inch of rain from tonight's rain judging by the maps

8 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Yeah. 00Z Para GFS looks pretty good.

https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model

00Z Para GFS actually looks great.  Cumulative precip map shows 1 plus inches of liquid.

Yeah. 00Z Para GFS looks pretty good.

https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model

Let's see what the Euro Ensembles look like. Seems too early to focus on operational runs.

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Huge inverted trough signal for C/S NJ, RGEM/NAM/GFS all show potential with amounts as high as 6"+. 

That should be interesting to see unfold, Norluns typically end up further north than forecast.

Yeah. Seems like you can't tell where a Norlun will setup until the day of.

A clear win for the EURO.

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The saving grace will be if the storm stalls just offshore and weakens as it moves southwest.

Perhaps Snow88 is taking the perspective of North Carolina Piedmont and upstate folks (like myself) that will likely be spared Hurricane Fran-like effects. Latest forecasted storm track however would savage the coast...with catastrophic consequences.