Metasequoia

6 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

No Joke.

Second lightening strike with thunder in Battery Park City. So weird.

Just now, Metasequoia said:

Thundersnow in Battery Park City!

No Joke.

Thundersnow in Battery Park City!

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Another possible outcome...hopefully not realized.

2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

The 12Z Euro did bump north quite a lot, but verbatim, it's still a decent snow for NYC and north. Of course things could keep moving north...

Listening to people's reactions as the Euro was running, it sounded like the storm went up the St Lawrence Seaway...granted we weren't Jackpotted.

The 12Z Euro did bump north quite a lot, but verbatim, it's still a decent snow for NYC and north. Of course things could keep moving north...

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Pivotal now

 

Looks like a substantively better GFS run to me. Best GFS run in many cycles.

27 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

while i wait for the 0z models to drop, anyone know if theres snow on the ground in the catskills or taconics? girlfriends birthday this weekend and we're thinking winter hike. anyone with snow locked in on the ground let me know. I know its gonna be warm this weekend but the catskill elevation may help

https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow

I don't hate where we're sitting 6 days out. There's a lot support for a large storm coming up the east coast with a lot of blocking in place. The models are likely going to flop all over the place for several days to come. Too early to throw in the towel or get too excited.

Sleeting in lower Manhattan...maybe still some rain mixed in.

14 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The greatest KU in history happened in March. 

8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I guess you mean 93 but it wasn't a KU event for NYC. 

Probably referring to the 1888 blizzard. 1993 was a KU for many though and you'd agree, pretty significant for NYC.

OZ NAM with a couple ticks south. Not that many want sleet and freezing rain.

Looks like the latest RAP has surface temps below freezing in NYC for most of the storm...tough to tell on Pivotal though. 

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's going to snow in the Hudson Valley and points North for at least a few hours.

HRRR also trended colder from the previous run.

Let's stop calling off the storm before it happens...unless you are pining away for all snow, then it is over. That was never really a possibility. The latest HRRR is not a bad look for a real winter day for metro and LI north.

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

once again - NYC metro - sleet

Yea, not a good run for snow. Sleet will do though. Pretty close to being a soaker unfortunately.

OZ Canadian actually looked better. Parent low was weaker and further south.

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yup. This looks like how these types of systems play out for NYC south. Still 4 plus days out I guess...

Still think this type of system favors northern areas for snow, but we are still 5 days away. That's plenty of time for a shift south or north for that matter.

It seems like these overrunning storms don't result in much snow for NYC. Hudson Valley and New England do well...sometimes the Mid-Atlantic. Hopefully we all do well...if that's even possible with such a storm

About 2 inches in Battery Park City on surfaces other than streets and sidewalks. Trees are covered. Good to keep expectations in check...nice modest snowfall.

Sidewalks are also finally getting covered in lower Manhattan. Quite beautiful with all the trees covered. It's nice to have a snowfall beat expectations.

Moderate snow in southern Manhattan. All paved surfaces are wet, but everything else is covered. Not that there is much grass or soil for snow to accumulate on, but whatever. Better than I expected.

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the snow is falling moderate or better and temp is 32, the warm ground won’t matter and snow will stick. I’m thinking 1-3” for most of us but could be a surprise 4-5” if the fronto banding shown on the HRRR especially does work out. All in all a perfect example of this season of a system that will deliver in a way but a few minor tweaks could have been much better. 

I'm keeping my expectations in check for Manhattan where I live. You are in a much better position though. 

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What white rain ?

I just doubt the ground will be cold enough on Sunday and the snow heavy enough to accumulate much if at all in NYC. If the low strengthens more than expected and/or tracks further NW, that might make a difference. 

Mid to upper 50s on Saturday, so mostly white rain in NYC. Grass and cartops elsewhere?