EastonSN+

Mjo going into the cod. Will be interesting to see what transpires with this mjo look if it verifies.

24.5 inches of snow fell in Central Park the winter of 92/93, which felt like a lot more given the prior few years lol. The March 93 storm was my third favorite of all time, even though my town only ended up with 11.5 inches of snow encased in ice. Nothing better than a megalopolis snowstorm media frenzy.

I do agree that volatility seems to have increased, which hopefully can work in our favor when we do have an above average winter like 3 years ago. I thought a winter like this would have been mitigated by The increased ridging in the southeast as well as the extremely warm ocean temperatures, however we may not have gotten to that point yet. If we take 95/96, our snowfall would have arguably been better if the same setup occurred today as there would be a lot less virga, offsetting the warmer temperatures.

The reason 1970 through 99 are referenced is due to the fact that it's set between two epic snowfall periods of 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018. Since 2018 we have had 1 above average snowfall winter, excluding this winter, 1 in 6 years. 2 years less than 50% of average. 70 through 99 had 4 (correcting my mistake before of 5) above average snowfall Winters, 11 of which were less than 50% of average (30-year period). My mistake if I painted a picture of absolutely no snow at all in that 30-year period, I am merely trying to give perspective to posters who have not lived like I did through the '80s and '90s which were a far, far cry from 2000 through 2018. 2000 through 2018, and for that matter 55 through 69, skewed snowfall averages as both periods had multiple KU events and above average snowfall winters in a short period as opposed to 70 through 99 which only had a handful, I believe there were only 6, widespread ku's in that 30-year period. I do not focus on temperatures at all as long as it's cold enough to snow. That being said I also don't want to paint the '80s as a frigid wasteland as I live through it and I remember multiple days in Winter which were very very warm, and was a time period where attention was pointed to global warming. Yes the early '80s did have some extremely cold periods and one month of December 1989 in an otherwise warm winter. I think we all already know the 90s were very warm.

I have to be honest I feel good for the Mid-Atlantic they deserve one.

We were overdue for a cold and dry winter.

Lol in 1970 they had to be patient for 30 years.

I hate to say it but we were due for a cold and dry winter.

That's a really sizable jump

Thanks for this at least the gefs tries to move the trough a little West and the geps does the same to a lesser extent. On a side note I cannot remember when we have been on the backside of a trough like this for an extended period of time perhaps not since the eighties.

EPO flips negative again after a short positive time on the gefs. PNA starts to relax and the block remains this looks like a better opportunity for us.

On a side note that looks like pretty intense snow squalls in The lakes region

This is the positive EPO you are seeing

Forky did mention a few pages ago that this period could easily be cold and dry.

If this forecast holds up the next storm the Delmarva has been doing well recently.

Borrowed from the middle Atlantic forum.

Wave spacing hurt the ability for this to come up the coast.

This would be fun to watch.

Wow!

Yeah we are stuck in this decadal pattern unfortunately. Hopefully this shakes up in a couple years, however personally I can live without frigid cold as long as it's cold enough to snow.

All three ensemble suites look fine. At this point we need some sort of a shake up otherwise it's a Mid-Atlantic and southeast favorable pattern for snow.

Are there any sites where historical data for thunderstorms are listed for NYC?

When watching the model runs always look to that lobe to the Northeast if that is further south then the storm will be squashed South.

Something you don't see on a model everyday.