EastonSN+

Yup sometimes the good patterns fail and the bad patterns produce (see February 2018).

While the ensembles continue to vary on the PAC progression, all continue the blocking straight through.

Thanks Walt! Made a visit to the MA forum and the 6Z EPS definitely shifted east a bit. IMBY (coastal CT) already had 1.5 inches. Would gladly take a 1 to 3 incher before the rain to pad the December snowfall stats.

Yeah I took a peak at the EPS, GEPS and GEFS. Only the EPS shows a full GOA Trough while the others show it being temporary. GEPS seems to be a good middle ground this morning FWIW.

I mean this always had a risk of cutting per below older runs. Recent runs gave us a head fake. Like Forky stated after Christmas. And what has changed in the pattern depicted in the ensembles?

GEFS will post GEPS once in.

Hey if a red tagger states this I would believe it.

Thanks!

Just like yesterday looked like a monster snowstorm was coming in, today looks more like 50/50 rain or snow. If this change happened in the course of 12 hours, imagine what the changes could be by tomorrow morning. Could be massive rainstorm and wind or a blizzard. My advice is to listed to red taggers when they opine on the matter, for it's their profession. EVEN IF THIS ONE IS RAIN, I am confident in the step-down progression of the pattern and would in no way affect my thoughts on the winter progression.

Could end up a good old fashioned 6 to 10 with a changeover. Just for fun for both storms.

Feb 2010. I am technically in New England and rained all day and night until the next morning when the storm occluded. Ended up with 8 inches of snow on the back end after a day of rain! Air mass will be colder on this storm too.

Wow

What a monster on the GFS.

This winter may end up being something really special.

Epic storm depiction on GFS! Let's wait for the CMC to roll before we get our hopes up

I believe the Cleveland superbomb primary low made it further north than the primary low depicted on a lot of the ensembles. If the primary low remains inland BUT never reaches our latitude before kicking east with a high to our north......

I saw this on the individual ensembles where the mean is misleading due to the high spread/multiple lows. I do have a question, if the coastal low occludes/vertically stacks SW of us never reaching our latitude, what would that mean for precip types? In the Feb 2010 storm, when the storm occluded my area switched to snow after a full day of rain and ended up with 8 inches.

00/01 was a really good above average snowfall winter as well.

That was so close to the big one on the GFS.

This is what makes weather so great. Nuances that can be the difference between a monster snowstorm or wind driven rain. Keeps us tuning back in again and again. Love it.

Looks like the typical snowfall distribution from my childhood. Every single storm "snow will fall well north and west...."

Where I was had nothing but dustings. This year already at 1.5

Hey, if the fact that we only had one minor snowfall event so far is depressing some, just think of how bad 2010/2011 and 00/01 we're, we had not snowfall yet in either of those winters by this date!

Oh God I hope 12/13. Solid above average snowfall winter with a great February and March. I would not worry about 01/02 that was really really dry. The entire setup is different. 12/13 is actually fairly close.

Or we have a la Nina like 2 years ago and we are above average!