EastonSN+

EPS would work as there would be enough cold air with the depth of the trough and the PV on our side of the globe. The GEFS depiction would be tough.

It would take a lot to have it happen but I wouldn't go as far to say a freak event. The blizzard of 1888 was a freak event.

60 inches!!!!

52 foot drift lol.

What is wouldn't pay for a radar loop of that storm lol. I think BDR reported 18 while HVN reported 45.

Yup GEFS is weaker in 8 therefore not AS cold but definitely below normal.

Quot from history. Com which was such a crazy temp swing a long long time ago. Blizzard of 1888 "March 10, temperatures in the Northeast hovered in the mid-50s. But on March 11, cold Arctic air from Canada collided with Gulf air from the south and temperatures plunged. Rain turned to snow and winds reached hurricane-strength levels. By midnight on March 11, gusts were recorded at 85 miles per hour in New York City. Along with heavy snow, there was a complete whiteout in the city when the residents awoke the next morning."

Ensembles are now picking up on the last window. 6 inches for Providence to record their snowiest winter on record!! First northeast record since Boston 2015?

COD

Providence had it second snowiest winter in history! If they are to challenge the highest it will have to occur after mid month. They only need 6 inches.

Problem is only 4 days hit 60 and 2 are rain and 1 cloudy lol. This is the extended TWC forecast.

52.7 so far.

Yup timing is my concern with the MJO. Hitting 8 on the 20th is a bit late and everything would have to line up for snowfall. That being said it has to be monitored. If the forecast is off by a few days and its earlier we can increase snowfall chances.

The trough set up too far east for east St. Louis this year. If the trough was a little further west our snowfall COULD have been MUCH higher.

It could be the case - out of curiosity what drove the persistent-ao this year? Looks like we do hit 8 once again but will see if its early enough.

Also working against March and April snow is the fact that it seems decadal. 90s snowed often in March and April. 00s hardly snowed 10s snowed often 20s barely snows Of course all this is timing. If we were hitting phase 8 now and the current reversal happened 2 weeks ago we may be looking at heavy snow in March. Looking at the CPK snowfall chart, oddly it seems that when we have an above average snowfall December March is not snowy and vice versa (for example this year, 18/19, 13/14, 14/15 etc...). Only in rare winters like 95/96 and 02/03 do we have "wall to wall" snowfall. 13/14 came close but DC "stole the snow" that year.

Thanks Don. This morning we are finally seeing a movement to phase 8 where previously it was stuck in 6. Also the wind reversal is imminent. Of course, all this may effect us too late where we would need everything line up perfectly (night, high rates, arctic air, track...).

Starting to show movement to phase 8.

The next period starting to show up on the ensembles. We will see if its cold enough tk het CPK to 50 inches.

My TWC forecast has a chance of showers or rain from the 3rd through the 15th. Only two days of sun. Yay for spring in the NE. With we could just jump to June.

NWS has a great page for the storm. Radar loop as well as surface map loop.

That's so dd I see it.