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Rd9108

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Everything posted by Rd9108

  1. Rd9108
    All about if the mesos can win out.
  2. Rd9108
    I thought it was a scab and started picking at it and luckily it came off. Did you get lymes?
  3. Rd9108
    This definitely gonna be nowcasting. The meso models have the low getting further and closer to us before transferring. The gfs and cmc have it transferring earlier. It could be all model noise but these little details matter for us. It seems like it's all meso models want to take the low closer to us which brings the rates but also the mix line. It's never easy for us. My gut tells me the 18z HRRR and NAMs head more toward the gfs and cmc but who knows.
  4. Rd9108
    Honestly gfs looks identical to the NAM with the low placement. Would have to look at the 500mb to see the difference.
  5. Rd9108
    Gfs isn't hearing it either fwiw.
  6. Rd9108
    I found a tick on my ball sack back in October. All of those useless parasites can burn or freeze to death.
  7. Rd9108
    This doesn't look like the NAM or HRRR not saying it's right but it can't just be tossed aside
  8. Rd9108
    Hmm idk it has been the only model to show the more "northern" solutions this whole time. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them. I wouldn't expect anything more than 2-4 at the most to keep your expectations in check.
  9. Rd9108
    Strong chance it does but rgem is not anything like the NAMs so wagons west may not be a thing.
  10. Rd9108
    Hence why I'm sure kpitt put it in their forecast. Gonna be fun radar watching if that's the case.
  11. Rd9108
    3k gets that mix line awfully close. Have to smell the sleet to get the better rates they say.
  12. Rd9108
    Seriously give me 4 hours of inch rates during the day and it'll satisfy my snow itch. Now we just need the models to converge on this solution. Crazy how much this storm changed in 60 hrs.
  13. Rd9108
    That's all I want in a storm honestly. Give me the heavy rates.
  14. Rd9108
    Why am I up at 5 AM you ask. Well there's a fire in Manchester that we had to transfer for. Why all this being said. NWS is not on board for anything more than 2 inches. So of course take the models for fwiw.
  15. Rd9108
    Sref positive trends so far
  16. Rd9108
    12k NAMd us hard 3k as well
  17. Rd9108
    Positive energy I'm bringing here. Icon fwiw If the GFS hops on board then I'll get atleast somewhat intrigued and hopeful. As of now this storm has been fascinating to track.
  18. Rd9108
    I always like when this gets in range. It's not the dark dark blues but still looks good. Fwiw https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
  19. Rd9108
    Yikes
  20. Rd9108
    It's a big jump between 18z and 0z. Now don't get me wrong I don't see this getting too much better but we still have time for some trends. We track
  21. Rd9108
    NAM is better for us plain and simple. Last minute trend for atleast something measurable perhaps?
  22. Rd9108
    Everything is trending worse except the RGEM. So I doubt we see anything more than an inch or two at the absolute most. This honest looks like crap now. The Northeast are relying on the deform band now to set up and deliver the goods.
  23. Rd9108
    RGEM is not giving up even if its wrong.
  24. Rd9108
    Yeah figured it would. Cmc is too amped. Atleast mid month looks promising.
  25. Rd9108
    I find it funny that they hyped this storm up so much around here that i have people asking me about the "big snownstorm" this weekend. If you really look at the models this was advertised as a big snow storm for 36 hr maybe 48, and this was basically still 5 or 6 days put. Thats forever I'm model land. Atleast this was a quick rug pull and not a slap in the face. The 18z runs on Jan 2 was the first signs of this being dramatically different evolution than what is unfolding now. Maybe sampling?
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