Rd9108

Nothing is set in stone yet. This is all gonna depend on the orientation and interaction with the TPV.

Tired so not gonna disect the GFS but it trended towards the Euro. Is it right we shall see. Cmc is a great hit but the GFS and EPS ensembles don't agree with it. Need to start seeing this trend back NW or the CMC is out to lunch.

Agreed and this is a cold storm so I doubt 10-1 would be the ratio probably a little higher. Interestingly enough it started to phase with the northern energy close to Maine. Gotta keep an eye out on that.

18z is slightly better than 12z. Still time for improvements. Central PA gets smoked with a foot.

But it's happened before is what I'm getting at. We could follow up a low year this year with 60 inches next year. I don't believe any of that nonsense that this is the norm now.

It's a bad stretch I'm sure we've had some bad stretches in decades prior.

I'd bet on suppression. That's some cold air coming in with the polar vortex. Eventually it will be our turn we just have to be patient and deal with a shit stretch of winter. I still think we atleast score a warning level storm this year.

Don't jump off the ledge yet. Still 3/4 days out from anything. Yeah the trends were terrible today with the risk of suppression, which makes sense. I'm sure it's gonna look totally different at 0z and 12z tomorrow.

Euro says what storm. Holds too much energy back in the SW ( I feel like it does this a lot) and allows the wave to get squashed.

Wouldn't be mad at this. Honestly we need this to amp up more. I'm still worried about suppression. Still won't know much until probably Sunday. It's only Thursday.

Sorry all out area just isn't good for synoptic snow storms. I'm honestly just trying to chase the big one from beginning to end.

2018 also was a two day thing but I'm pretty sure we eclipsed 12 inches. Maybe this is our year... This might a case of 2010 where the Mid-Atlantic needs 40 for us to see 20. It is what it is. 1994 is not a normal low track.

National blend of models fwiw

Euro is doing what is most likely gonna happen and forming the wave on further east most likely on the arctic front. Unless this amps up from a phase I just don't see this being a threat for us. Maybe we sneak an inch or two atleast but I wouldn't expect much more. Now the models this far out are gonna change so who knows.

It's fantasy of course but the signs of winter are there. Just gotta get through one more cutter first

Yes I believe so Off the top of my head I'd be more concerned for suppression than these next two waves cutting. Regardless looks like we will have some things to track.

True true. I guess we shall see I'm assuming the next storm is north than the boundary will get pushed East. Hopefully we get some clarity on the 0z runs tonight. FYI I'm done arguing. Weather only. This hobby is stressful enough.

I'd say if we see any meaningful shifts they happen in the 0z suite. From just my weenie eyes it looks like the shortwave is coming ashore right around now.

There's a reason I blocked him and his post made it clear. Anyway we still have another storm to get through before our "period". So anybody punting after two sets of model runs are crazy. Here what the EPS had today. Granted it had a +NAO but this is not a signal for no possible winter weather.

The potential is there but way too far out honestly. This next cutter looks like it will probably be somewhere up through Ohio. Gfs is usually too progressive and Euro is usually too amped.

I was talking to met on another board from around here and he mentioned that's the reason for the snow. The precip came way faster than expected. He said the winds look to be pretty nasty later but not as bad as out further east.

Roads are horrible Actually surprised to see borderline .5-1 inch of wet snow outside too. Figured it would be freezing rain straight to rain.

Definitely tossing this week obviously with the warm Temps and flooding rains. Appears that we are under a wind advisory with winds up to 40mph and gusts up to 50. After that model guidance is all over the place. Might get lucky and get some wrap around snows but those are usually overdone. What looks promising is a period after the cutters and even a possible TPV invasion which would of course bring in cold and dry conditions. Who knoes sometimes you get some arctic squalls that are fun. Ensembles show signs of possible snow in the coming weeks but we have to get through some cutters first. Looks like our next period is the 16-17. Still plenty of winter left to cash, but you definitely hate tossing a week. February shows possible phase 7 of the MJO which gives you this pattern. The MJO looks like it flies through right to phase 7,8 which are more favorable for winter weather.

Honestly looking through old threads we have more posters than you would think. They only come out of the woodwork for 5+. Only us psychos post constantly.