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Rd9108

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Everything posted by Rd9108

  1. Rd9108
    I'm tired but NAM appears to have like 3-4 inches with some overrunning.
  2. Rd9108
    So far today it definitely has trended worse overall. Now let's see what happens when the cutter moves out and if the models can resolve any minor details.
  3. Rd9108
    Euro is better but still not great. Maybe it's the beginning of a positive trend. It will be interesting to see the ensembles. I wouldn't expect too much from this but some cold 2-4 inches would go a long way.
  4. Rd9108
    I'm not giving up until probably Sunday. We've seen big shifts last minute. Let's clear the cutter and sample the energy.
  5. Rd9108
    Nothing is set in stone yet. This is all gonna depend on the orientation and interaction with the TPV.
  6. Rd9108
    Tired so not gonna disect the GFS but it trended towards the Euro. Is it right we shall see. Cmc is a great hit but the GFS and EPS ensembles don't agree with it. Need to start seeing this trend back NW or the CMC is out to lunch.
  7. Rd9108
    Agreed and this is a cold storm so I doubt 10-1 would be the ratio probably a little higher. Interestingly enough it started to phase with the northern energy close to Maine. Gotta keep an eye out on that.
  8. Rd9108
  9. Rd9108
    18z is slightly better than 12z. Still time for improvements. Central PA gets smoked with a foot.
  10. Rd9108
    But it's happened before is what I'm getting at. We could follow up a low year this year with 60 inches next year. I don't believe any of that nonsense that this is the norm now.
  11. Rd9108
    It's a bad stretch I'm sure we've had some bad stretches in decades prior.
  12. Rd9108
    I'd bet on suppression. That's some cold air coming in with the polar vortex. Eventually it will be our turn we just have to be patient and deal with a shit stretch of winter. I still think we atleast score a warning level storm this year.
  13. Rd9108
    Don't jump off the ledge yet. Still 3/4 days out from anything. Yeah the trends were terrible today with the risk of suppression, which makes sense. I'm sure it's gonna look totally different at 0z and 12z tomorrow.
  14. Rd9108
    Euro says what storm. Holds too much energy back in the SW ( I feel like it does this a lot) and allows the wave to get squashed.
  15. Rd9108
    Wouldn't be mad at this. Honestly we need this to amp up more. I'm still worried about suppression. Still won't know much until probably Sunday. It's only Thursday.
  16. Rd9108
    Sorry all out area just isn't good for synoptic snow storms. I'm honestly just trying to chase the big one from beginning to end.
  17. Rd9108
    2018 also was a two day thing but I'm pretty sure we eclipsed 12 inches. Maybe this is our year... This might a case of 2010 where the Mid-Atlantic needs 40 for us to see 20. It is what it is. 1994 is not a normal low track.
  18. Rd9108
    National blend of models fwiw
  19. Rd9108
    Euro is doing what is most likely gonna happen and forming the wave on further east most likely on the arctic front. Unless this amps up from a phase I just don't see this being a threat for us. Maybe we sneak an inch or two atleast but I wouldn't expect much more. Now the models this far out are gonna change so who knows.
  20. Rd9108
    It's fantasy of course but the signs of winter are there. Just gotta get through one more cutter first
  21. Rd9108
    Yes I believe so Off the top of my head I'd be more concerned for suppression than these next two waves cutting. Regardless looks like we will have some things to track.
  22. Rd9108
    True true. I guess we shall see I'm assuming the next storm is north than the boundary will get pushed East. Hopefully we get some clarity on the 0z runs tonight. FYI I'm done arguing. Weather only. This hobby is stressful enough.
  23. Rd9108
    I'd say if we see any meaningful shifts they happen in the 0z suite. From just my weenie eyes it looks like the shortwave is coming ashore right around now.
  24. Rd9108
    There's a reason I blocked him and his post made it clear. Anyway we still have another storm to get through before our "period". So anybody punting after two sets of model runs are crazy. Here what the EPS had today. Granted it had a +NAO but this is not a signal for no possible winter weather.
  25. Rd9108
    The potential is there but way too far out honestly. This next cutter looks like it will probably be somewhere up through Ohio. Gfs is usually too progressive and Euro is usually too amped.
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