Rd9108

Gfs isn't hearing it either fwiw.

I found a tick on my ball sack back in October. All of those useless parasites can burn or freeze to death.

This doesn't look like the NAM or HRRR not saying it's right but it can't just be tossed aside

Hmm idk it has been the only model to show the more "northern" solutions this whole time. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them. I wouldn't expect anything more than 2-4 at the most to keep your expectations in check.

Strong chance it does but rgem is not anything like the NAMs so wagons west may not be a thing.

Hence why I'm sure kpitt put it in their forecast. Gonna be fun radar watching if that's the case.

3k gets that mix line awfully close. Have to smell the sleet to get the better rates they say.

Seriously give me 4 hours of inch rates during the day and it'll satisfy my snow itch. Now we just need the models to converge on this solution. Crazy how much this storm changed in 60 hrs.

That's all I want in a storm honestly. Give me the heavy rates.

Why am I up at 5 AM you ask. Well there's a fire in Manchester that we had to transfer for. Why all this being said. NWS is not on board for anything more than 2 inches. So of course take the models for fwiw.

Sref positive trends so far

12k NAMd us hard 3k as well

Positive energy I'm bringing here. Icon fwiw If the GFS hops on board then I'll get atleast somewhat intrigued and hopeful. As of now this storm has been fascinating to track.

I always like when this gets in range. It's not the dark dark blues but still looks good. Fwiw https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Yikes

It's a big jump between 18z and 0z. Now don't get me wrong I don't see this getting too much better but we still have time for some trends. We track

NAM is better for us plain and simple. Last minute trend for atleast something measurable perhaps?

Everything is trending worse except the RGEM. So I doubt we see anything more than an inch or two at the absolute most. This honest looks like crap now. The Northeast are relying on the deform band now to set up and deliver the goods.

RGEM is not giving up even if its wrong.

Yeah figured it would. Cmc is too amped. Atleast mid month looks promising.

I find it funny that they hyped this storm up so much around here that i have people asking me about the "big snownstorm" this weekend. If you really look at the models this was advertised as a big snow storm for 36 hr maybe 48, and this was basically still 5 or 6 days put. Thats forever I'm model land. Atleast this was a quick rug pull and not a slap in the face. The 18z runs on Jan 2 was the first signs of this being dramatically different evolution than what is unfolding now. Maybe sampling?

Yeah we are missing a quick hitting 6-8 inch storm at the absolute most and it's all gonna be gone in a day or two. Definitely doesn't hurt as much as say like 2016. You start to care less about snow after you almost total your car in the ice/snow. Not to mention having to deal with it on my job. I still enjoy the heavy snowfall and tracking the threats but it doesn't hurt as much now. We are just in a bad stretch, it will change I'm sure you could go through our history and see other examples of bad stretches. I always said I'd take no snow all year to cash out on the big one.

We might have gotten more snow last night then the storm this weekend. Rgem looks the best, NAM isn't bad but I doubt we see anything more than an inch or two at most.

Not over yet and now there is a great lakes low that is appearing screwing everything up. Idt this done trending quite yet.

Since we are out of this one I'm more curious about how this evolving but is it not concerning that the usual overdone model is showing such little precip?