MacChump

1 minute ago, wkd said:

moderate snow. 

where?

6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Well that’s ridiculous

-Roger Smith

PSA: Don’t ask questions about PA snowfall in the Midatlantic forum...they’re...*touchy*

46 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

RGEM and to a lesser extent GFS have retrograde loop of coastal, which would explain apparently huge snowfall predictions. Not quite buying that totally but factoring it into second call which follows first call (which was 17-23 widespread, 25-30 local).

DCA 16.5

IAD 20.5

BWI 24.5

nMD/sePA local 30-35

15" snow line n/c DE to near Annapolis to Quantico

mixing zone mainly from that contour to Ocaen City-Richmond (5" snowfalls). 

Blizzard-like storm for many areas of c, ne MD and e PA, s/c NJ

Winds not being discussed much but with the retrograde loop, gusts to 70 mph quite possible in a zone from n/c DE to central Chesapeake, probably 35-45 cities along I-95. Just a relatively brief interval of those winds, associated with retrograde phase mid-day Monday. 

Further afield, predicting 30" PHL, 20" NYC, 12" BDR, 14" BOS, only a medium sized snowfall for much of inland New England as they get a weaker phase of the evolution. 

Max snowfall from storm somewhere like Pottstown PA 36" 

Let’s not just dismiss this out of hand, I for one am willing to hear him out

From Roger Smith’s lips

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wow

 

15 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said:

Literally 2.0 qpf or 2 feet of snow .... right on me in Ardmore, PA.

 

Keep it. Forever and ever.

hit up tired hands tomorrow 

2 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

looking at the 18Z NAM, as I have said all day, I like where I site here in extreme SEPA

EDIT with the above being said, I think the NAM made some errors here and the precip shield will push back NW

where are you, your location says wrightstown?

Just now, H2O said:

Shhhhhhhh, sweet prince. It’s all taken care of. 
 

Hows mdecoy doing?

as he hasn't posted in forever I actually think he may be doing well

Just now, H2O said:

Dammit @MacChump I had to. You know I love you tho, right?

 

Just now, MacChump said:

IF YOU'RE GOING TO LEAVE THE NAM DRUNK POST UP MAPPY

LOL i blamed mappy

IF YOU'RE GOING TO LEAVE THE NAM DRUNK POST UP MAPPY

Just now, The Iceman said:

whoa a MacChump sighting.... this threat may actually be legit what's next, allman15 making an appearance? 

lol...feel OK about this one down here...

8 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I have to disagree. I think this map is comically low and is supported by no model. It's straight up misleading. Especially for I-95. Solid model consensus on 10-16".

name checks out

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

DC now in the “Heavy Snow” weather hazard 

these things take me back to the MS Paint contest

edit: i'm struggling to take this seriously when i'm picturing metfan making it

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I don't remember that one, but 22 years ago, so meh.

I don't think it is even possible for DCA and BWI to get a major ice storm these days outside of some kind of crazy anomalous setup not seen in decades. Like sustained --20s and 30s up at my house in Randolph filtering towards down here.

This year is far from it.

Wait you have a house in Randolph?

Here’s an ob: shoveling this stuff sucks

moderate snow in downtown wilmington, tiny flakes...mulch and roofs starting to lighten

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

Not sure yet, but thank you! 

Good luck. Went through this recently with our dog. He ate a towel. A really, really, really expensive towel. Hope yours is Ok. 

2 minutes ago, MacChump said:

They did the same for Thursday at my kids’ schools, and gave the same rationale. Of course, we are likely getting *maybe*  4 inches of snow and then crazy sleet/rain so it’s sort of crazy but I’m cool with it. 

Here’s the relevant portion of the email we received today:

As for the snow days, we are blessed in Garnet Valley to have the hardware, software, and expertise to teach our students virtually. However, as parents and/or educators we also recognize that the first snow is a special occasion, especially when it falls during the holiday season. As a result, we are using one of the three snow days that are built into our calendar to provide our children a reprieve from the disruptions and restrictions that COVID has brought to their lives so that they can get away from the screens and enjoy some fun outside. I believe fun has been sorely missed by our kids, and we need to find a way to provide it–albeit with all of the appropriate health precautions. Additionally, with the amount of forecasted snow, we wanted to guard against power outages, network issues, etc.

As with every decision that we make during the pandemic, I’m sure that there will be those who adamantly oppose my decision, as there will be an equal number who support it. Nevertheless, understand that we remain committed to getting our students back in school for in person learning as quickly and safely as possible. We also remain committed to their social and emotional health, so although a snow day during virtual learning may sound counterintuitive, how much more can we possibly impose on our kids? One day over the nine months of this pandemic, we believe, is a worthwhile accommodation. Finally, we need to acknowledge that our school community also needs consistency, and we believe that our plan meets these factors as well as possible given the known and unknown challenges that currently exist. 

2 hours ago, wxtrix said:

this is the right idea.

They did the same for Thursday at my kids’ schools, and gave the same rationale. Of course, we are likely getting *maybe*  4 inches of snow and then crazy sleet/rain so it’s sort of crazy but I’m cool with it. 

1 hour ago, ovechkin said:

Thanks.

 

Maybe I will. Will try to bring good luck. We need everything to go right in every storm yet PHL just 120 miles away gets a foot when someone sneezes. 
 

Only holding out hope bc we have seen where changeovers don’t happen as modeled. 2/25/07 was supposed to switch over,  2/10/10 even was supposed to. Obviously much different set ups, airmasses and times of year, but predicting 850 and 925 marches can be tricky. 

That said, anything white on the ground Thursday morning inside the beltway would be a win. 

PHL recorded .3 inches of snow last year FWIW

Enjoying reading the obs from all of you up there...assuming these setups rarely give localized snowholes over only Tolland and Randolph I’m rooting for you all to get nailed...

Just catching up...so, 36...not bad!

now I just need you to answer whether that is elite athlete level...

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

I would like to confirm the rumors that I am in fact an elite level athlete 

the ones about me have been wildly exaggerated 

56 minutes ago, MacChump said:

not taking your advice until you tell me what your resting heart rate is...and, is it elite athlete level?

14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Obviously heart/lung health is especially critical during this pandemic, because we know that this virus attacks the heart and lungs of many people. Most people that die from this virus die because the lungs or heart give out. So this isn't just about the weight issue ... exercise strengthens the heart and lungs which reduces the chance of dying from Covid. So it's just another reason why exercise can help during the pandemic. There's no question there would be much less deaths if more people exercised. And again I just do not understand why anyone would take offense over medical advice that can help reduce hospitalizations and deaths during a pandemic. Most people don't take offense, but a small percentage of people do. They misunderstand it for fat shaming or trolling, but it isn't those things at all. Talk to any doctor and they will tell you that exercise reduces risk of having severe problems with Covid. Obviously it doesn't eliminate it, but it reduces it which is a good thing.

just write a number...any number...i'll accept any number at all, it could be a 1, or a 2, or a 3, or how about a 4?  It's that simple...

then we can move on to the elite athlete question