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Everything posted by OKpowdah

  1. Living vicariously through a case study of the Dec 2002 storm right now
  2. Nino and +QBO ... Definitely a crappy winter next year.
  3. The first wave will get suppressed a bit more, and the second one will amplify a bit more to come to the perfect solution of back to back snow storms for SNE and major screwage for NNE
  4. Snowfall probs are a little lower / diffuse ... more spread
  5. At this rate, I'm going to be smoking cirrus pretty soon...
  6. You caught me. For $500 a month, I get the clown maps an hour before everyone else, and just sketch those up... But seriously, it looks exactly like my map lol
  7. Over the last 12-24 hours model guidance has shifted back by 6 hours. This is turning into a primarily evening - night event, which makes a huge difference
  8. GFS a little slower again. But the s/w is less amplified
  9. NAM still showing best ML frontogenesis across NNE ... I'm still interested to see whether some banding of better echoes forms across S VT into C NH
  10. I'm just comparing with previous runs. I agree with everything you said here. The latest run is just a bit more amped up, and shifted toward a more coherent low developing south of New England
  11. Well lows can be described as stretched, as in a pressure trough. The graphical illusion is in where the surface low is placed and the areal coverage of the first isobar.
  12. The low isn't anymore stretched than other runs. In fact it's a bit more contracted because the s/w is sharper. The only reason people are *perceiving* it to be more stretched is because the program is drawing the low to one side of the pressure trough rather than in the middle like previous runs. UVM is sure to be stronger this run for a few reasons: sharper trough -- stronger PVA, and stronger frontogenetic forcing with a tighter temp gradient in a stronger deformation zone. This run would result in a more concentrated band of higher snow totals ... getting on up into the 6-12" range ... *NOT my forecast*
  13. Only issue (for me anyway), is that the slower the low, the more separation between the departing storm, with higher pressures to the northeast, suppressing the northern edge of the precip. Actually would probably be decent deformation enhancement across S NH and N MA
  14. WOW! NAM is much slower. Bulk of precip still to the west at 00z. Getting closer to a nighttime event Also, 700mb trough is much sharper ... closer to closing