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OKpowdah

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OKpowdah

  1. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    One thing to take away from the 12z runs, a few more GFS ensembles did jump on board the 10/24 storm. 06z GFS op had the storm, but with zero support from the ensembles. 12z ensembles on the other hand have 6 members that develop the coastal low
  2. Reinforces the pattern over the north Pacific. Huge jet amplification, with cyclogenesis in the poleward exit region. Basically as long as we get these jet amplifications, we'll get significant cyclogenesis near the Aleutians, reinforcing the upper level trough there as well as the downstream ridge from the eastern Pacific to the west coast of North America. Supported by current long range model forecasts, this particular recurvature may lead to at least a temporary unleashing of the arctic around the end of the month.
  3. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    JMA doesn't have it. No dice. Storm cancel.
  4. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    The 10/24 threat is far from dead, As long as we have one model run per day showing it lol.
  5. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    The 00z Euro continues to have a very cold and potentially stormy outlook for days 5-10+. Quite an impressive pattern (and stable). Like I discussed in the typhoon thread ... the different forcing mechanisms coincided to produce a pattern shift toward a stable equilibrium, and until something comes along to disturb that equilibrium, there's no reason we move out of this pattern. A lot of recurring themes in the Pacific over the next two weeks, including more tropical influence in the west Pac --> amplifies the ridge, extends the jet eastward, which supports significant cyclogenesis near the Aleutians and a persistent trough, with plumes of WAA and LHR toward western North America, anchored around at least 2 cutoff disturbances that get trapped in the eastern Pacific. So west coast ridging never spills further east into the CONUS, constantly breaking around the Rockies, and driving polar disturbances southward.
  6. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    12z Euro is still keeping the 10/24 storm threat alive. Challenge is trying to amplify a shortwave in the very fast flow around that trough. CMC is giving it a try too.
  7. Moderate snow being reported in DDC
  8. OKpowdah

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    Following the recurvature of Typhoon Francisco, we get a huge jet amplification again in the West Pacific, and it looks like both the GFS and ECMWF want to develop an intense low in the poleward exit region by day 7-10. Could get kinda windy around the Aleutians to western Alaska.
  9. A lot of bust potential with temperatures early next week in Oklahoma with the frontal passage. We'll see how far southwest that airmass can penetrate, before getting shoved eastward. NWS forecast high for Norman on Tuesday is 70. MEX guidance is 59.
  10. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    There really is a ton of potential in that pattern. Plus the infamous Southwest cutoff low on the long range Euro lol. Once the upstream shortwave (sitting on top of the ridge) moves eastward, the ridge should explode poleward again, sending another shot from the arctic into the Plains. Not to mention the storm raking the Aleutians at that time too Gotta love this time of year.
  11. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    honestly even posting that sounding I was worried about derailing the thread too much. Alright, back to talking planetary scale past day 5.
  12. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    Sorry, one more weenie figure. I'm playing catch up with the 00z GFS lol. This is a forecast sounding in eastern Maine from last night's 00z GFS. Yum
  13. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    My thoughts exactly lol. I'd be kinda interested in what that s/w on top of the ridge does too. Days 11-14 look like they could be a lot of fun!
  14. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    Haha well I'll be home for Christmas, so if you guys can get me a snowstorm around then, maybe I'll put together another Freudian snowfall map
  15. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    It is the CMC at hr180, with a known bias to overdo these troughs. But anyway, wow, drops the 850mb 0C isotherm to the Gulf Coast.
  16. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    10/24 sure is getting a lot of attention from long range guidance recently.
  17. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    OH I see how it definitely reads that way. Oops
  18. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    It is. Did I make it sound like something different accidently? haha sorry.
  19. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    Euro op and ensembles are really impressive around day 9-10. This is something that if later in the year would be very interesting for New England. The ensemble mean (not shown)... is also a thing of beauty.
  20. OKpowdah

    Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

    Between the GEFS and EC, there's a lot of support for some "cold season storminess" beginning around the 23rd-25th
  21. Somebody shared this a few hours ago on listserv. At day 5 and day 6 there was some huge spread in the 500mb heights in the 6z GEFS. This is actually very similar to the cases that I see in ECMWF busts over Europe, where there's active wave activity interacting with a blocking pattern, and the error/uncertainty grows near the block, but further downstream the forecast is less affected. The only situation I see, and I mentioned this in the New England subforum, is with that disturbance undercutting the ridge on the subtropical jet. Something to watch.
  22. You can see the effect of the recurving TC nicely in this hovmoller of meridional wind (averaged 30-60N) forecast from GFS. The effect of a recurving TC can be seen in the group velocity (so basically the wave envelope that amplifies the wave pattern). So when the phase pattern change is already in motion thanks to extratropical interactions in the central and eastern Pacific, the recurving TC basically acts to reinforce and to increase the amplitude of the wave pattern. At the same time producing a more stable blocking pattern than would've been. Note where/when the wave pattern amplifies (right where Wipha is tracking) and how that envelope moves downstream, with a huge ridge anchored near 140W (east Pac) and the trough axis near 270W (Midwest).
  23. OKpowdah

    The early speculation on winter 2013-14

    The effect of a recurving TC can be seen in the group velocity (so basically the wave envelope that amplifies the wave pattern). So when the phase pattern change is already in motion thanks to extratropical interactions in the central and eastern Pacific, the recurving TC basically acts reinforce and to increase the amplitude of the wave pattern. At the same time producing a more stable blocking pattern than would've been. Haha thanks guys.
  24. OKpowdah

    The early speculation on winter 2013-14

    Aww thanks! This board taught me everything I know. Wait, I'm a mod. Back on topic. It's going to snow this winter.
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