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OKpowdah

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by OKpowdah

  1. There's just so much information in that map, it's overwhelming.
  2. 12z GFS for just north of Lawton,OK at 00z on Saturday evening. Very close to where the model initiates convection very shortly after 00z. Surface winds back substantially at this time, with strong convergence along the dryline. This run has a decent window for a tornado threat Saturday evening, and I still think above normal potential for a significant nocturnal severe event.
  3. Forgetting the chaser perspective for a moment, we probably need to start talking more seriously about the implications of a solid nocturnal outbreak Saturday night over KS and OK
  4. tl;dr: Don't trust the NAM synoptic forecast in convective situations like this. tl;dr: Don't trust the NAM beyond 48 hours.
  5. So Jake (locoako) and I were talking about that this morning. The NAM uses the BMJ convective scheme, which activates when CAPE > 0, and triggers deep convection (and precip) when the reference profile produces net warming and drying of the column. So the BMJ scheme doesn't directly care about capping, or forcing at all. From KS northward, the mid levels are relatively dry which is why the NAM doesn't produce any precip there. It's also interesting to note, because as a result there's less latent heating downstream of the trough, thus lower heights, which is why the NAM progresses the trough to the east a little faster than the rest of the guidance.
  6. The trough is already notably slower by Friday night though. Vorticity within the trough is a little more strung out on the upstream side early on Friday, so the trough is at a little larger wavelength and thus moving slower. The timeline for vorticity collecting in the base of the trough is maybe like 6 hours slower,
  7. Hysplit trajectory model, for moisture return. 12z GFS yesterday vs 12z today. Damn.
  8. OKpowdah

    2014 ENSO Mega Thread

    Winter 2009-10 was the strongest west-based El Nino on record. Line of zonal convergence stayed right near 155w the whole winter.
  9. OKpowdah

    April 1st-4th Severe Weather Thread

    Yeah the 850 jet races off east early Wednesday and just like you said, with the trough still further west, the 850 and 700 winds are pretty meager and veered until Thursday morning.
  10. OKpowdah

    April 1st-4th Severe Weather Thread

    Same trends from all model centers today ... more consolidated, sharper, amplified s/w trough, and more s/w ridging downstream. Slower. Stronger sfc low placed a little NW, with low level winds backed. All around very favorable trends for Wednesday.
  11. OKpowdah

    2014 ENSO Mega Thread

    Here's 2n/155w and looking ahead into the summer in the other years. There's a climatological min in the spring -- a trend bucked solely by 1997 ... and 2014? (and probably several other years before 1993 ...)
  12. OKpowdah

    2014 ENSO Mega Thread

    0-300m heat content measured at 0N/155W over the last 90 days. Past years color coded by the following winter (DJF) ONI. http://pic.twitter.com/lgmv5oiCf1
  13. I said 1/27/2011, and yeah 850mb temps are a few degrees warmer this go around, but the dynamics with that vort max tomorrow night will be enough to flash anyone on the edge quickly to heavy snow.
  14. 6z GFS reminds me of Jan 27, 2011 with the wicked small half wavelength negatively tilted up the coast
  15. lol I was waiting for this solution to show up. 1) because some of the ensemble members pointed to it, but it was only a matter of time before the GFS said, "hey I wonder what happens if I try dropping this trough in early?" and commence sloppy phase before the southern vort can actually get consolidated.
  16. That band is staying juuust south of Norman for now. I just back from driving to OKC so that's fine by me. This MD has been out for a little while now, but just for reference: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0052.html It's a good read.
  17. OKpowdah

    OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

    Let's organize discussion and obs for this storm in a new thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42685-groundhog-day-winter-storm-tx-ok-ar-disco-and-obs/
  18. OKpowdah

    January 2014 pattern discussion

    The PV retrogression by the 28th, just as ridging flexes its muscles over Alaska and the arctic. That's when a larger winter event could happen. HM posted these thoughts 3 days ago too. Gotta give credit where credit is due. Something that unfortunately has been lacking.
  19. OKpowdah

    January 2014 pattern discussion

    That's why I made a point of saying "significant" storms. Maybe should've said "major"? haha. But anything with a SE ridge will be fast moving, only having a very narrow stripe of WAA and DVA forcing just north of the low track. I don't think there would really be much chance of decent Miller B development either.
  20. OKpowdah

    January 2014 pattern discussion

    You probably don't want that. At least if you're looking for more significant storm opportunities There's already +NAO ridging over the N Atlantic. Any height rising over the SE will just increase mass gradients, increase upper level winds, shearing apart any disturbance that gets in that flow. What you'd like to see is -NAO blocking develop, with lower heights across the Atlantic, and higher heights toward the Davis Straits. By actually lowering heights over the SE, disturbances have a much easier time amplifying. And just through that process, troughs will break NEward, with significant coastal cyclogenesis, etc.
  21. OKpowdah

    January 2014 pattern discussion

    That is an epic vortex sitting over James Bay for most of the 00z GFS run Not to mention the split in the stratosphere at the end of the run. http://t.co/kiJvVVmprq
  22. OKpowdah

    January 2014 pattern discussion

    I was not aware he was using "their" MQI operationally at WSI.
  23. OKpowdah

    January 2014 pattern discussion

    When both the Euro and GFS have sub -30C 850mb temps dropping into the Plains (-3 to -4 sd anomaly) at day 10, that's significant.
  24. OKpowdah

    January 2014 pattern discussion

    Please ignore specific details of the map. Just to show, by the end of the 12z GFS run, look at the extent of snow cover across North America.
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