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Everything posted by OKpowdah

  1. OKpowdah

    Storm Disco for Manitoba Mauler 01/26/27

    lol yup. My first semester I was extremely homesick for cold and snow. And then I played frisbee on a 70 degree day in the middle of January, and I was okay with it haha. And taking the Oklahoma perspective on weather everywhere -- check out the SCP from the 15z SREF. Can't upload for some reason, but just go check it out. Median > 12 in the Gulf of Maine at 15z Tuesday
  2. OKpowdah

    January 2015 Pattern Discussion

    Still a flat ridge though, along with a very +NAO. The northern branch of the split Pacific jet is wicked strong and just spilling right into North America through week 2.
  3. OKpowdah

    January 2015 Pattern Discussion

    You have to keep in mind that the AO is a hemispheric index. The air over the arctic will take the path of least resistance, which in this case will be over Kamchatka and across the North Pacific, not North America.
  4. OKpowdah

    December-winter is finally here!

    Very interesting, considering this composite pattern from a 45-day lag off of the latest burst in tropical forcing. http://t.co/u4h7H4h2lX
  5. OKpowdah

    December-winter is finally here!

    didn't the CFS bomb November?
  6. OKpowdah

    OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2014-15 Discussion

    Most of the cold air shifts to the other side of the globe towards the end of the month. We do get some pretty decent shortwaves ejected at the exit of the Pacific jet, but I'd lean more away from snow threats and actually more toward thunderstorm threats.
  7. OKpowdah

    GLAAM and Mt. Torque products

    Those products need some help anyway.
  8. OKpowdah

    Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    1) Some people seemed to have based this assumption on the 1-dimensional QBO index "slowing down" last month. 1D extrapolation of the QBO index is primitive considering the data that we have at our fingertips. 2) Basing an assessment of the QBO, a 25-29 month oscillation, on weekly variations of local anomalies is extremely flawed. 3) The core of the easterlies were at 20mb this past month. There's still easterly shear at 30mb. Therefore the QBO "index" would be expected to continue to fall or at least remain nearly steady for the next few months.
  9. OKpowdah

    Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    I disagree with the premise that the QBO easterlies will weaken substantially by December and through the winter. This seems to have become a popular idea in the last week for some reason. The MQI phase space demonstrates how the easterlies are still descending, and the core of the anomalies will reach 30mb in January and February.
  10. Hey everyone! I'm looking for daily data of max and min temps for US stations for the last 10 to 20 years. There's a page on ESRL, but it only covers 1950-1999. Obviously there's ways to get the data simply month by month, but I was wondering if anyone knows of an easily accessible long term database. Probably has been asked numerous times before, so apologies for the redundancy. Thanks!
  11. Hey everyone, what's the best website for pulling an archive of daily temperature records across the US?
  12. OKpowdah

    Daily Weather Records

    Thanks everyone!
  13. OKpowdah

    June 3rd-6th Severe Thread

    locoako and I might be driving up tonight, just because it would be my last chase opportunity before moving.
  14. OKpowdah

    June 3rd-6th Severe Thread

    I'm in agreement. Just was throwing it out there. Personally I can see there being one monster supercell, probably with a sig tor and all, riding along the warm front at 00z just north of the NE/KS border. Then wraps up into the MCS to the north with big hail and winds.
  15. OKpowdah

    June 3rd-6th Severe Thread

    12z SPC WRF for 00z tomorrow evening. Maximum 2-5km UDH
  16. OKpowdah

    June 3rd-6th Severe Thread

    think the PBL will actually mix that high though? Decent jet streak with a thick cirrus shield moving in early tomorrow. Plus the cloud deck with the ongoing convection to the northwest. And with not much of a cap, should get convection firing early. Not sure if there will be enough time for LCLs to lift very high.
  17. I talked about messing around with this before. I have defined a QBO phase space which relates much better to the true stage of the oscillation. Here I've related the phase to Atlantic ACE, filtered by climatology. Notice the two very distinct peaks ... one around -90 (easterly QBO max) and one around +90 (westerly QBO max) So Atlantic tropical activity may have a strong link to the QBO. Up until now, correlations have only been calculated using the QBO index ... which return very weak results due to these two peaks in opposite stages of the oscillations. This is an excellent display of why this measure of the QBO is much better / more useful
  18. OKpowdah

    2014 ENSO Mega Thread

    There is a connection, via the South America hadley cell. A west-based Nino yields a zonally overturning cell rising from 180 and sinking over SA, which weakens the SA HC. A weaker HC -> weaker ST warming -> weaker eddy heat flux in the mid latitudes -> reversal in the FC circulation and meridional mass field / PV gradient ~ blocking.
  19. OKpowdah

    OK/TX Drought & Wildfire Thread

    It's all about persistence. We can discuss a few things here. Both this year's current drought situation unfolding, and also desertification of western OK and the OK/TX panhandles. Lots of positive feedback mechanisms at work, and deserts can grow gregariously unless something intervenes. Time to start thinking about major implications on crop availability for the entire U.S.
  20. As in temp/dp? 82/70 at the airport, 78/68 at the mesonet.
  21. Strongly agree. If you are going to critique the outlook, do it with substance. And keep in mind the definition of a high risk based on tornado probabilities. Does the current situation warrant the upgrade of an area from 15% to 30% tor? And why? A high risk denotes the ultimate level of certainty in a tornado (or damaging wind) outbreak. And there is plenty of uncertainty instilled in the forecast today.
  22. RAP and SPC WRF nailed this morning.
  23. Need to continue to pay close attention to central OK tonight / tomorrow morning. RAP and SPC wrf blow up a nice line ahead of the DL as strong upper level forcing moves in, with still 2000J/kg of CAPE in place, and a heck of a lot of low level shear