vwgrrc

SW Denton Ct. here. Even though the radar shows all pink for the whole county, I just stepped outside it's still all plain rain. Temp at -1C now. Interesting! I wonder maybe the FR part is not going to be as bad as the models depicted? Edit: 0z NAM HRRR HRW all showing very concerning amount of icing for north half of DFW. I see ice on the tree in our neighborhood already. This gonna be a very long night folks...

At 21z, KDFW observed 40F and NAM is forecasting 41F. I would call that pretty close at this point at least.

while 18z NAM is still painting DFW with FR really hard! I'm on FWD's side on this one

Correct me if I was wrong - what you're trying to say here is it's colder than models forecasted? I think that means less time for FR to fall but more snow?

Well. there's a key difference right? Last year was a controlled power outage because of supply shortage. This time looks like powerline may not be able to holdup with the ice in some area. that's a bigger issue if it does happen because no one controls that and it takes longer to fix. Edit: 12z GFS even more QPF for Collin County. This trend is bad.

Regardless, there's pretty much a consensus across the models that Collin County will get a tons ice unfortunately. That's really concerning given how populated Allen/McKinney/Frisco area is. Most of our friends are in these 3 cities and got hit hard in last year's poweroutage.

12z 12km nam fr is simply insane for dfw especially the eastern half. But meanwhile 3km nam is showing basically nothing for Dallas.. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

Afd actually increased their ice forecast in the latest update. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

Yes. Sounds like their reasoning for that is the latest NAM suggesting a slower cold air front so that there's a smaller time window for FR to fall in DFW. But my impression for this type of event is the models normally underestimate the progression of cold air thus the surface temp will look warmer than what actually pans out. Maybe that is only the case for GFS not NAM?

Will have to say the ice accumulation in this warning seems a lot less than what most models are suggesting. Not sure if they see something that we don't Meanwhile, 0z CMC is coming in. Even more FR and sleet than its previous runs. Crazy!

Dumb question but what's NSSL? Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

0z HRRR decreased the fr quite a bit but uped snow amount. This is good news! Will need to watch if NAM follows. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

18z GFS mostly unchanged for DFW, about 1" of freezing rain on the eastern half and less on the west side. Crazy even Austin will be under some significant icing.

Same on 18z NAM as well. It's now only 33hr out but the QPF almost doubled. Is this even right?? It's also notable the FR band seems moving NW quite a bit compared to 12z. Does this mean it may put DFW out of the core area is very worth watching out for! Edit: 18z NAM mostly consistent with 12z. I wonder if we need an Ice Storm Warning soon.

The good news is 18z HRRR just came in. It seems less scary than NAM at 12z. But I don't know how those 2 compared in this case.

True but unfortunately that stops with GFS. Both 12z NAM and Euro are suggesting more compared to yesterday. Very very concerning since I feel NAM is a stronger model at this range.

12z NAM is even more concerning with Collin and Denton at 1.3". The FR band is merely 200 miles wide but dramatically DFW is right in the middle ...

True! I'm not in this profession but do watch wx closely. I don't think I've ever seen that much of FR for DFW. I experienced 2013 cobblestone (with 2-day power outage) but I didn't check the data prior to that. My guess is this could be as bad as that one if NAM holds true. Sorry if this is a bit off-topic. But last year we were lucky didn't have any power issue in the February storm. However I think that was a controlled outage and we're probably on the same section with a large hospital. This time if it gets too icy, powerline comes down regardless and may take a lot longer to recover. I wonder how would y'all get prepared in this case (other than what NWS suggested ofc)? Especially those of you had power issue last year, what can be realistically done differently? Thanks!

At least 12z and 6z GFS dialed that down a little bit from yesterday. About 10-20% using Collin Ct as a benchmark. Let's hope that's a trend. Otherwise, significant power outage is likely.

12z HRW actually has KDFW cross 32F right after 6PM. That's crazy. But I personally don't know too much about the background or track record on that model.

Like a hotel room? How you know they will have power if you don't Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

holy moly ~ the FR QPF on both 12z GFS and NAM is simply mind-blowing and put DFW in the center of the mess. I wonder if anyone remember what was the forecast data leading upto the cobblestone 2013 storm. This has some real potential to surpass that!

18z NAM is like - oh sure I agree with y'all! (GFS, CMC, etc)

Yes that's what I mean. I think sleet is easier on trees and powerlines as it doesn't stick to surface like FR does, which is always the main concern for event like this in DFW. I was in Richardson in December 2013. I remember the power went out not even too long after the FR begins. I can't open my car the next morning

Good thing is CMC stepped down a little bit on QPF compared to yesterday. If GFS holds thru out tonight, I may need to start thinking abt what to prepare for a power outrage to be honest.