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vwgrrc

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  1. vwgrrc
    Down to 32 now here in Irving. Seems a bit colder than expected? But NAM still says meh... Sent from my MHA-AL00 using Tapatalk
  2. vwgrrc
    The batch to the west of FW is fading. Feels like DFW gonna get shafted again...
  3. vwgrrc
    Thanks Dave. Never heard of that. But even there is flash freeze, those ice spot should evaporate pretty soon, right?
  4. vwgrrc
    He's saying sleet. I think the radar is show all snow for the metro now.
  5. vwgrrc
    Right. HRRR seems keep pushing the radar blossom later and later. Edit: Back to sleet in Irving. I think overall the radar looks good and start leaning towards HRRR.
  6. vwgrrc
    Freezing rain/rain falling hard here in Irving, about 10 miles east of the DFW airport. I think the radar now looks more like HRRR than NAM.
  7. vwgrrc
    Radar at 5PM seems showing less precip than HRRR predicted. Not a very good sign.
  8. vwgrrc
    I have a feeling that NWS is bit conservative by saying that HRRR is too wet (or maybe they ignore the trend?). But if the this solution pans out, it gonna be a major ice event that includes DFW.
  9. vwgrrc
    NWS just said they believe the HRRR(X) is a too wet while they favored the WRF and NAM's drier solutions. I always thought HRRR is very good at this range...
  10. vwgrrc
    And even more moisture on the latest 18. It's leaning toward the HRRRX solution.
  11. vwgrrc
    Agree. You can see this change now on HRRR. More snow linger around NTX after the front pushed into Central TX. What concerns me is the HRRRX solution has a lot more ice before the transition to snow! But I'm not familiar with that model. No idea why it's so different from HRRR.
  12. vwgrrc
    Is it just me or the models (primarily NAM and HRRRX) have trended north by a little bit?
  13. vwgrrc
    Any idea about the track record of this model at this range? Some say it's a good short range model. But another trusted model - RGEM didn't show nearly as much precip as that model does.
  14. vwgrrc
    Someone just post a 0z HRRRX on Twitter which looks pretty impressive for DFW to E TX. I have no idea how reliable that model is but that solution seems a lot more significant (and icy) than what NWS has discussed. Can anyone verify that?
  15. vwgrrc
    I remember someone said NAM is the only one he would watch for inside 48 hours. Didn't believe that until now... all models converging to NAM in this case, unfortunately.
  16. vwgrrc
    They will calm down once the 18z data set gets reflected in some publicly available resources, like TWC or Wunderground.
  17. vwgrrc
    Guess you're right. 18z GFS and ICON basically confirmed their thought. Things are shifting to south. DFW may see "flurries" at best, again!
  18. vwgrrc
    NWS is very conservative on the amount in their PM discussion. They basically said little to nothing for DFW and north.
  19. vwgrrc
    Same here. 12z NAM showing nothing for DFW. GFS also backed off the moisture a bit. But CMC is still going strong with 2-3" on the east side of the metro. Kinda of hard to believe the difference considering we're only 36 hours away from the event. Wish the European could bring back some confidence.
  20. vwgrrc
    And 18z GFS seems backing off the moisture and moved the system a bit south. Not a very good sign... Meanwhile, the second system is getting more interesting. Lots of ice for NTX and it has been that way for a few runs now.
  21. vwgrrc
    You're right. Both 6z and 12z indicate more moisture that yesterday and NWS suggests in the AM discussion the cold air may move in quicker. It looks like we're finally onto some real winter weather this time. One thing I don't understand is why NAM is still showing virtually nothing for NTX when other models are so consistent with good agreement. I thought NAM is a good model for wintry events like this. But I'm not met... could be wrong.
  22. vwgrrc
    12z CMC, GFS, and ECMWF all hold up well for N TX next Monday night into Tuesday. Not a huge amount of precip after the cold front. But I think it's not very uncommon for models to under estimate the progression of the cold air in this kind of setup, in which case we may end up with more/earlier frozen precip than expected. Correct me if I'm wrong.
  23. vwgrrc
    Nice to see something within 5 days with model agreement, finally. But I won't get too excited at this point since the precipitation amount is still in question and that could make a huge difference. Also, we're now in NAM range and I'm not quite seeing much moisture at this time.
  24. vwgrrc
    Actually, it's now targeting right at your location (E TX). The good news is we're seeing some agreement across a few models and the event is not that far away. Hope this one hold up its shape!
  25. vwgrrc
    Both 0z GFS and CMC are shifting the 1st system of next week north by a good margin (now on the south edge of DFW CWA). Hope it's a trend. Plenty of time for things to change still.
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