vwgrrc

Someone tell me I'm reading this wrong please - 12z GFS seems even more bullish on the frozen QPF for most of the DFW. Almost X2 from 0z last night?! That's very concerning

100% agree. Like other had posted above - the takeaway at this point is that NAM is trending towards GFS, which is not a good new for the power grid.

Not sure if I'm looking at the same thing - but at least the 12KM NAM i'm looking at, Thursday 9-15z has DFW under mostly freezing ice and sleet. That's 6 hours under icing condition!

Thanks for sharing! Now at 12z, NAM starting to pick up this event. The frozen p amount seems lower than what GFS, CMC and ICON suggested at this point. I wonder how we read that? Is that a timing difference or mesoscale just has a better insight in this case?

True. Also is notable that 12z euro stepped back on the frozen p quite a bit. That's hard to ignore given we're still about 4 days out. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

Comparing the latest GFS to those op runs yesterday, there seems like a drier-trend underway for at least the immediate DFW metro (less freezing train or sleet?), I think that's a good thing. Will need to watch if 12z CMC and Euro can agree with that! Edit: ECMWF does dial back on the frozen p a lot at 12z. Interesting!

IMO, the AFD tonight will be quite critical to watch if that is likely going to pan out or stay with a media hype! Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

That's exactly right. Thanks! Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

Not trying to challenge you. Just curious and for learning - 12z ICON looks like a pure rain event for dfw. Also there's might be a warmer trend going on. Maybe I'm reading it correctly? Thanks Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

I won't Buy that at this point to be honest, exactly like our friends at FWD office pointed out this morning. Models are overdoing that most likely. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

6z gfs agrees even more But very interesting writeup from FWD this morning. I guess they feel the pressure. Global model snow/ice accumulation forecasts... - The temporal resolution (how many hours apart) of global models in the extended period is usually 6 hours. The model generates a precip-type forecast for the first hour of each time-step and keeps it constant for the entire 6 hour block of time. In the case of passing arctic fronts and/or changing temperatures, the precip type in the real-world will be continuously changing. However, the model is unaware of these temperature changes between time-steps and assumes a constant p-type for 6 hours. The model then generates a 6-hour QPF (Quantitative Precip Forecast or how much liquid water will fall) and assumes all of the QPF will fall as the pre-determined p-type for the entire 6 hours. If the meteorological situation involves rapidly changing temperatures, such as behind arctic fronts, this effect creates wildly unreliable and inaccurate snow & ice accumulation forecasts. Next week is one of these situations, so please take any model snow/ice forecast with a huge grain of salt for the next couple days.

FWIW, North TX especially dfw metro seems facing some serious troubles around 2/4 next week if model holds true. There are still many pending litigationa against ERCOT from last years winter storm. Crazy. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

I was about to say that 18z GFS looks direr initially... but man that 133+hr looks crazy. That puts DFW right in the center of a huge ice storm. I don't think that's too realistic.

I can't wait to see the media hype probably starting this weekend if the trend holds. Given how bad and how refresh people's memory is on Feb-21 storm, there might be some serious hoarding coming soon (not a fan of that to be honest )

Oh yes I agree with the cold air part! I was just referring to a freezing rain/sleet event. Canadian was showing icemeggedon yesterday/Wed but now it seems that switched with GFS. Also wanted to note that both 6z and 12z GFS is showing that, which certainly worth watching from now on. If Canadian decided to join the party this weekend, that spells pretty big trouble for DFW. Dec 2013 is not completely out of reach!

I probably wouldn't be that bullish at this point tbh. Looks like Canadian suggested that in the last couple days and GFS came to agreement today but the latest Canadian just left the chat. Probably temporarily but still left the chat

haha Thanks so much! I need to watch radar closely from now on.

Gosh no. I have an airport pick up at 7-ish. Probably the worst time to show up at DFW... Should I stay home for while or arrive there early and hide in the garage?

20z HRRR seems showing more snow than previous runs (mainly longer period) for the most part of the metroplex.

latest guidance seems showing a lower amount of snow/sleet than previously expected. Not a bad news given the stress we have in infrastructure now

NWS AFD on icing - The latest 3km NAM suggests a significant freezing rain event will take place with ice accumulations greater than currently forecast, however, it may be a little too aggressive with its low level warming given the extremely cold airmass in place. We`ll have to watch this closely though through the day Tuesday. Our current forecast will continue to advertise a freezing rain/sleet potential mainly from the Metroplex southward with a transition over to snow late in the night. Areas from the Metroplex northward may see more snow accumulation. Ice accumulations of 1/10 to 1/4 inch appear likely, especially from the Waco/Temple/Killeen areas northeast in the Palestine/Canton areas. There will also be some minor ice accumulations through the Metroplex before a transition to snow. Snowfall amounts will range from 2 to 6 inches with the heaviest amounts northeast of the Metroplex... Edit: meanwhile 18Z GFS largely dialed down the Wednesday threat.

18z HRRR is pushing the snow/sleet slightly south and right across the middle of the metroplex. That's better than 12z, but at the same time a little bit more QPF.

So that basic place the immediate DFW into trouble zone

I'm more leaning towards NAM/HRRR at this range and for the type of event. But I'm not a professional by any mean.

I mean there's a chance it could a more sleet/freezing rain even than purely snow. HRRR & NAM seem both indicating that.