vwgrrc

All 12z guidance are still grossly behind on the timing/intensity of the cold front. For references, they all modeled the freezing line at noon to be round OKC and Dallas *should* be within 50-55F range. In reality, Downtown OKC is currently sitting at 26F and Dallas is at 40F. That's just wild given it's short range and how large the deviation is and all models being so off. This makes me wonder if the actual ice we end up getting for DFW will be a lot higher than modeled since they're all showing some rain (ECMWF and GFS are showing pretty much all rain on Thursday).

True. This event has a lot less moisture than the one 3 weeks ago. But a bigger portion of that will fall in form of FZRA compared to sleet or snow we had in that one. This could still be a high impact event for at least part of the metro here.

The freezing line as of 900CST is already sitting around Abilene, TX - Durant, OK line. The latest GFS is only modeling that to play out after midnight. A 15-hour difference is just insane! I don't think I ever seen such a large difference in terms of the timing of a cold front. But on the other hand, I guess that can be a good news as it could make it drier/less froze precipitation? But I'm too sure about this.

Meanwhile, 0z models are trending a little wetter for the Wed/Thursday possible wintery event... How crazy is that to have sever t-storm warning and FRZR within barely 48 hours!

Thanks for sharing! It's a little hard to believe GFS and NAM are still showing a large difference at this point on where that freezing line will be on Thursday, which could make a notable difference to DFW. CMC is in the middle/closer to NAM and have DFW under freezing rain most of the time. But I'm not very sure about the track record of CMC for these setups. Edit: Looks like 18z GFS is retracting the FZRA/sleet band even more towards northwest (warmer for DFW) and NWS continues to side with colder guidance. Interesting!

True! 12Z NAM still stands strong on its cold picture looks like. The not-so-good news is all models seem trending drier at the same time and there's not much time left to flip back to the wetter side? But I'm not a meteorologist so could be wrong for sure

This one seems a bit interesting as it's harder than the event 3 weeks ago for models to reach any consensus at this range. What's even more interesting is that NWS suggested they're picking side with the colder ones like NAM/GFS than EU models. I feel most of time in the past they stayed mid-ground or even tilting warmer. Maybe they just have more faith in NAM in this set up. If that plays out, there could be some impact for the northern half of DFW.

Please correct me if I was wrong - but looks like there's a hint something might be brewing for North TX around 23-24th next week. Of course it's still way too early to predict the p-type and location. But GFS seems starting to join CMC showing at least the pattern will be more favorable for a wintery event around that time frame.

Things getting quiet down here in Denton and Collin Ct. After all this is not nearly as bad as the models depicted. I'm curious why they missed with so many consensus and consistency for about a week. But after all this is good for the metroplex!

Just switched from FR to sleet in S Denton County. That was about 4 hours of FR.I feel this started a little earlier than expected but didn't quite progress as bad as the models depicted. I saw a clear coat of ice on tree branches about 9PM and that stays basically unchanged as of now, which is fine for powerline. Hopefully I didn't call that too early! Edit: looks like a portion of Addison lost power based on Oncor map. Not sure if @Powerball is still on

I'm about 10 miles north of you I'm monitoring Oncor's map closely. Everything looks good so far. Finger crossed it stays that way!

Addison?

SW Denton Ct. here. Even though the radar shows all pink for the whole county, I just stepped outside it's still all plain rain. Temp at -1C now. Interesting! I wonder maybe the FR part is not going to be as bad as the models depicted? Edit: 0z NAM HRRR HRW all showing very concerning amount of icing for north half of DFW. I see ice on the tree in our neighborhood already. This gonna be a very long night folks...

At 21z, KDFW observed 40F and NAM is forecasting 41F. I would call that pretty close at this point at least.

while 18z NAM is still painting DFW with FR really hard! I'm on FWD's side on this one

Correct me if I was wrong - what you're trying to say here is it's colder than models forecasted? I think that means less time for FR to fall but more snow?

Well. there's a key difference right? Last year was a controlled power outage because of supply shortage. This time looks like powerline may not be able to holdup with the ice in some area. that's a bigger issue if it does happen because no one controls that and it takes longer to fix. Edit: 12z GFS even more QPF for Collin County. This trend is bad.

Regardless, there's pretty much a consensus across the models that Collin County will get a tons ice unfortunately. That's really concerning given how populated Allen/McKinney/Frisco area is. Most of our friends are in these 3 cities and got hit hard in last year's poweroutage.

12z 12km nam fr is simply insane for dfw especially the eastern half. But meanwhile 3km nam is showing basically nothing for Dallas.. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

Afd actually increased their ice forecast in the latest update. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

Yes. Sounds like their reasoning for that is the latest NAM suggesting a slower cold air front so that there's a smaller time window for FR to fall in DFW. But my impression for this type of event is the models normally underestimate the progression of cold air thus the surface temp will look warmer than what actually pans out. Maybe that is only the case for GFS not NAM?

Will have to say the ice accumulation in this warning seems a lot less than what most models are suggesting. Not sure if they see something that we don't Meanwhile, 0z CMC is coming in. Even more FR and sleet than its previous runs. Crazy!

Dumb question but what's NSSL? Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

0z HRRR decreased the fr quite a bit but uped snow amount. This is good news! Will need to watch if NAM follows. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

18z GFS mostly unchanged for DFW, about 1" of freezing rain on the eastern half and less on the west side. Crazy even Austin will be under some significant icing.