vwgrrc

Same on 18z NAM as well. It's now only 33hr out but the QPF almost doubled. Is this even right?? It's also notable the FR band seems moving NW quite a bit compared to 12z. Does this mean it may put DFW out of the core area is very worth watching out for! Edit: 18z NAM mostly consistent with 12z. I wonder if we need an Ice Storm Warning soon.

The good news is 18z HRRR just came in. It seems less scary than NAM at 12z. But I don't know how those 2 compared in this case.

True but unfortunately that stops with GFS. Both 12z NAM and Euro are suggesting more compared to yesterday. Very very concerning since I feel NAM is a stronger model at this range.

12z NAM is even more concerning with Collin and Denton at 1.3". The FR band is merely 200 miles wide but dramatically DFW is right in the middle ...

True! I'm not in this profession but do watch wx closely. I don't think I've ever seen that much of FR for DFW. I experienced 2013 cobblestone (with 2-day power outage) but I didn't check the data prior to that. My guess is this could be as bad as that one if NAM holds true. Sorry if this is a bit off-topic. But last year we were lucky didn't have any power issue in the February storm. However I think that was a controlled outage and we're probably on the same section with a large hospital. This time if it gets too icy, powerline comes down regardless and may take a lot longer to recover. I wonder how would y'all get prepared in this case (other than what NWS suggested ofc)? Especially those of you had power issue last year, what can be realistically done differently? Thanks!

At least 12z and 6z GFS dialed that down a little bit from yesterday. About 10-20% using Collin Ct as a benchmark. Let's hope that's a trend. Otherwise, significant power outage is likely.

12z HRW actually has KDFW cross 32F right after 6PM. That's crazy. But I personally don't know too much about the background or track record on that model.

Like a hotel room? How you know they will have power if you don't Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

holy moly ~ the FR QPF on both 12z GFS and NAM is simply mind-blowing and put DFW in the center of the mess. I wonder if anyone remember what was the forecast data leading upto the cobblestone 2013 storm. This has some real potential to surpass that!

18z NAM is like - oh sure I agree with y'all! (GFS, CMC, etc)

Yes that's what I mean. I think sleet is easier on trees and powerlines as it doesn't stick to surface like FR does, which is always the main concern for event like this in DFW. I was in Richardson in December 2013. I remember the power went out not even too long after the FR begins. I can't open my car the next morning

Good thing is CMC stepped down a little bit on QPF compared to yesterday. If GFS holds thru out tonight, I may need to start thinking abt what to prepare for a power outrage to be honest.

Someone tell me I'm reading this wrong please - 12z GFS seems even more bullish on the frozen QPF for most of the DFW. Almost X2 from 0z last night?! That's very concerning

100% agree. Like other had posted above - the takeaway at this point is that NAM is trending towards GFS, which is not a good new for the power grid.

Not sure if I'm looking at the same thing - but at least the 12KM NAM i'm looking at, Thursday 9-15z has DFW under mostly freezing ice and sleet. That's 6 hours under icing condition!

Thanks for sharing! Now at 12z, NAM starting to pick up this event. The frozen p amount seems lower than what GFS, CMC and ICON suggested at this point. I wonder how we read that? Is that a timing difference or mesoscale just has a better insight in this case?

True. Also is notable that 12z euro stepped back on the frozen p quite a bit. That's hard to ignore given we're still about 4 days out. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

Comparing the latest GFS to those op runs yesterday, there seems like a drier-trend underway for at least the immediate DFW metro (less freezing train or sleet?), I think that's a good thing. Will need to watch if 12z CMC and Euro can agree with that! Edit: ECMWF does dial back on the frozen p a lot at 12z. Interesting!

IMO, the AFD tonight will be quite critical to watch if that is likely going to pan out or stay with a media hype! Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

That's exactly right. Thanks! Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

Not trying to challenge you. Just curious and for learning - 12z ICON looks like a pure rain event for dfw. Also there's might be a warmer trend going on. Maybe I'm reading it correctly? Thanks Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

I won't Buy that at this point to be honest, exactly like our friends at FWD office pointed out this morning. Models are overdoing that most likely. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

6z gfs agrees even more But very interesting writeup from FWD this morning. I guess they feel the pressure. Global model snow/ice accumulation forecasts... - The temporal resolution (how many hours apart) of global models in the extended period is usually 6 hours. The model generates a precip-type forecast for the first hour of each time-step and keeps it constant for the entire 6 hour block of time. In the case of passing arctic fronts and/or changing temperatures, the precip type in the real-world will be continuously changing. However, the model is unaware of these temperature changes between time-steps and assumes a constant p-type for 6 hours. The model then generates a 6-hour QPF (Quantitative Precip Forecast or how much liquid water will fall) and assumes all of the QPF will fall as the pre-determined p-type for the entire 6 hours. If the meteorological situation involves rapidly changing temperatures, such as behind arctic fronts, this effect creates wildly unreliable and inaccurate snow & ice accumulation forecasts. Next week is one of these situations, so please take any model snow/ice forecast with a huge grain of salt for the next couple days.

FWIW, North TX especially dfw metro seems facing some serious troubles around 2/4 next week if model holds true. There are still many pending litigationa against ERCOT from last years winter storm. Crazy. Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

I was about to say that 18z GFS looks direr initially... but man that 133+hr looks crazy. That puts DFW right in the center of a huge ice storm. I don't think that's too realistic.