vwgrrc

I can't wait to see the media hype probably starting this weekend if the trend holds. Given how bad and how refresh people's memory is on Feb-21 storm, there might be some serious hoarding coming soon (not a fan of that to be honest )

Oh yes I agree with the cold air part! I was just referring to a freezing rain/sleet event. Canadian was showing icemeggedon yesterday/Wed but now it seems that switched with GFS. Also wanted to note that both 6z and 12z GFS is showing that, which certainly worth watching from now on. If Canadian decided to join the party this weekend, that spells pretty big trouble for DFW. Dec 2013 is not completely out of reach!

I probably wouldn't be that bullish at this point tbh. Looks like Canadian suggested that in the last couple days and GFS came to agreement today but the latest Canadian just left the chat. Probably temporarily but still left the chat

haha Thanks so much! I need to watch radar closely from now on.

Gosh no. I have an airport pick up at 7-ish. Probably the worst time to show up at DFW... Should I stay home for while or arrive there early and hide in the garage?

20z HRRR seems showing more snow than previous runs (mainly longer period) for the most part of the metroplex.

latest guidance seems showing a lower amount of snow/sleet than previously expected. Not a bad news given the stress we have in infrastructure now

NWS AFD on icing - The latest 3km NAM suggests a significant freezing rain event will take place with ice accumulations greater than currently forecast, however, it may be a little too aggressive with its low level warming given the extremely cold airmass in place. We`ll have to watch this closely though through the day Tuesday. Our current forecast will continue to advertise a freezing rain/sleet potential mainly from the Metroplex southward with a transition over to snow late in the night. Areas from the Metroplex northward may see more snow accumulation. Ice accumulations of 1/10 to 1/4 inch appear likely, especially from the Waco/Temple/Killeen areas northeast in the Palestine/Canton areas. There will also be some minor ice accumulations through the Metroplex before a transition to snow. Snowfall amounts will range from 2 to 6 inches with the heaviest amounts northeast of the Metroplex... Edit: meanwhile 18Z GFS largely dialed down the Wednesday threat.

18z HRRR is pushing the snow/sleet slightly south and right across the middle of the metroplex. That's better than 12z, but at the same time a little bit more QPF.

So that basic place the immediate DFW into trouble zone

I'm more leaning towards NAM/HRRR at this range and for the type of event. But I'm not a professional by any mean.

I mean there's a chance it could a more sleet/freezing rain even than purely snow. HRRR & NAM seem both indicating that.

The Wednesday storm will probably give NTX some real power issue looks like

Close to 1/2 inch on the ground, Plano/The Colony area. The real show will be this afternoon looks like

That 84hr image looks like a disaster for DFW. Reminds me the Dec'13 cobblestone ice storm. Massive power outage if that verifies! What worries me even more is GFS is basically showing a same picture with CMC not too far off

This is probably why Steve keeps calling the mid-week system more significant on his FB page today. He normally doesn't use any strong word for thing this far out... https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mccauley

0z is slightly less crazy. but still a lot!

I doubt they would miss it that badly at this rage. Meanwhile, 18z ICON and NAM remain bullish for DFW

Thanks goodness someone distracted us from "the hold"

Would you mind sharing which model(s) are you seeing this happening? I remember both GFS and NAM 12z remain fairly strong for DFW region Edit: i guess i see what you mean. RGEM is showing the snow ends for DFW late Sunday instead of Monday morning then it's previously depicting? I feel that remain to be verified by other models. At the end of the day, 2+ inches for DFW is really really good given how things went in the past 5 years!

Same here in SE Denton Ct. Forecasted to be a high of 2C and we're still sitting at -5C now. No way we can reach that high. This has been the case for the last several days. I wonder how this cold was so underestimated...

Have a feeling 0z batch going to be a somewhat encouraging cycle for North TX. ICON is bringing back more snow with a longer period. Short term models are depicting the new development AFD was talking about this afternoon. NAM is actually showing 2+ inches for DFW even before Sunday, which sounds a little crazy to me Friday Night through Saturday... An active weather pattern will be in place as we begin the weekend across North and Central Texas. An approaching upper level shortwave will be making its way through the region, tracking from West Texas down toward the Hill Country. Given the shallow cold airmass, this shortwave will induce strong isentropic ascent, leading to the development of drizzle early Saturday morning. With surface temperatures well below freezing, any drizzle will instantly freeze upon contact, creating a thin coating of ice on ANY surface. In additional the the drizzle potential, guidance is beginning to trend toward a localized threat for a batch of sleet or snow mainly west of I-35 Saturday afternoon. Given this is a fairly new development, we`ll continue to watch this potential as it could cause additional travel hazards as we go into Saturday night.

I wonder if DFW would have any trouble with power outage this time? It was very bad in Dec 2013 ice storm, but not too surprised given that was almost pure freezing rain. This time is all snow, which shouldn't be an issue for most power lines. Any thought?

Looks like 18z ICON is bringing back a little bit more snow for DFW area while NAM32 is saying What snow? Need GFS to pick a side...

12z GFS keeps the amount on the lesser side for DFW. I can only hope it doesn't pull back more at this point