Blizzard of 93

My dew point is down to 18

Exactly, banding is super tough to forecast. Those that get stuck in between bands will probably end on the lower end of the various prediction ranges.

Here is a wider view of the 18z GFS for everyone that doesn’t live in the southern tier… Everything looks right on track for CTP’s call at this time.

CTP made me feel special by giving my county their own special Warning Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 139 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 PAZ056-170900- /O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.240217T0000Z-240217T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0006.240217T0200Z-240217T1400Z/ Perry- Including the city of Newport 139 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Perry County. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

12z Euro snow map ONLY for the late NEXT week chance

Don’t look now, but the Euro has a 972 low in the central Chesapeake next Friday. We have yet another chance…

Wow, I never saw this coming…!

12z Euro Kuchera

CTP must be waiting on the Euro to hoist their Warnings & Advisories…

Canadian actually snows on a good chunk of CTP outside of the LSV later next week.

Thanks for getting Marysville & MDT into your dashed line jackpot zone! You have always been one of my favorites…Lol!

Yes, good old great great Grandpa Bob, Lol!

All of these snow maps by pros & great posters are bringing a tear to my eye over my lunch break! Thanks all!

Nice! The 6z Euro Op was its best run yet for the Harrisburg area & still really good for most.

Yes & the Canadian was close too for late next week.

6z GFS continues to juice up. Warning level snow roughly up to the turnpike this run.

I can’t fall back asleep with this house rattling wind!

6z HRRR really increased totals further north into CTP this run.

Great post from @psuhoffman that I wanted to share here: “I don’t know how much it will juice up but I think for places where the surface temps are below freezing the kuchera is under doing the ratios. The DGZ is plenty cold and saturated. Good lift. That matters more. Yea the surface temps might cut it down from 18-1 to 15-1 but somewhere that gets a combo of both cold enough and best lift will get ~15-1 to 18-1 with .3-.45 qpf that’s my 4-8” max band call right there. Where exactly that ends up is hard to say. But it’s likely near the northern periphery of the higher qpf zone.”

Here are the 6z NAMs with comments on ratios from PSU Hoffman.

0z Euro

I just got woken up by house shaking wind at 3:30 am !

Best GFS run of the day.

Do you pay the $100 for his expertise?

Same here in Marysville Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.