Blizzard of 93

I would settle for the 6z ICON at this point for my yard.

No problem! I’m enjoying what could be our final snow track of the season. I like the fact that current dew points are in the high single digits to low to mid teens across all of CTP this morning. They have been dropping steadily since yesterday. This should help surface temps to crash when the decent precip arrives overnight.

The 18z EPS improved again over its last few runs. It now has the 2 inch snow line down near the I - 81 corridor even to the LSV. It also brings the 1 inch line down to Rt.30.

Thanks man! This might be our last snow chance until November or December, so I am enjoying the tracking. I hope that we all score at least a coating of snow in the morning even if it gets washed away by the afternoon. The 18z Euro trended in the right direction for snow chances on Monday. The 2 inch snow line is back down to the I-81 corridor even in the LSV. The I-80 corridor continues to be in the bullseye. Hopefully the 0z runs treat us well !

@MAG5035 What are your current thoughts on the Monday snow potential for your area & for the LSV?

The Euro is really shifting the next mid week system to the south & east. The 12z run now brings snow to north central & north east PA.

Yes, I know what you mean. Hopefully, on Monday morning we all wake up to at least some snow flakes in the air.

No one is talking about a Blizzard. I think many of us would take a few hours of snow in the air & a couple of inches of snow in the grass at this point. You are in a good spot for this potential.

Yes, it would be something it that happened ! Some of the runs a couple of days ago had winter storm warning amounts for many of us. The 12z Euro just had its best run since 12z yesterday. Maybe we will trend back to a decent event for All of CTP?

Ok, the heck with the ICON, I switched my support to the 12z Canadian! This run gives the snow win to me, @sauss06 , @CarlislePaWx & @canderson Also, I think it’s catching on, because @Cashtown_Coop is in the LSV bullseye. He always wins with snow totals...!

I like the fact that we actually have a cold air mass in place prior to the event. It will be retreating after the precip arrives, but it is a 1040+ High, so that should help the initial snow cause.

They seem interested in some snow for many areas of our region...I’d rather be in Williamsport than the southern tier for this event. I think many of us see some snow. The questions are still for how long & how much accumulates & on what surfaces. Here is the latest CTP forecast discussion: “Models show a cold wedge pattern developing to the south of the strong high along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. This pattern will set the stage for a potential late season snowfall across parts of CPA Sunday night into early Monday. The first shot of warm advection precip (rain/snow) should arrive between 00-06Z Monday as mid level shortwave moves into the Ohio Valley and sfc low weakens over WV. Expect an uptick in QPF in the 06 to 18Z Monday period as secondary sfc low develops near the VA Tidewater/southern Delmarva region and taps into anomalous PW plume off the NC coast via strengthening east/southeast low level flow. Increasing/heavier precip rates along with wet bulb effects should support sufficient column cooling to trend thermal profiles/ptype toward wet snow across most areas to the northwest of the I-81/78 corridor. Continued to utilize a blend of NBM/WPC for 6hr snowfall with manual adjustments to emphasize elevation dependence. Current trend of precipitation onset and heavier rates overnight/before daybreak favors a small bump in precip totals along with some slippery travel early Monday, especially at higher elevations. Latest snowfall totals remained pretty consistent with previous forecast: max 2-4" across the highest terrain over the interior north central mtns and slushy 0.5-2" across the rest of the Alleghenies (lower amounts in the valleys 1000-1500ft/higher amounts on the ridges 1500-2000ft). Have reintroduced a coating of snow to the Lower Susquehanna, but any accumulation would be limited to grassy surfaces. In general, anticipate less snow accum on paved surfaces which could reduce travel impact to some extent. Non paved and elevated surfaces/grassy areas should see the greatest snow accumulation. As the sfc low deepens and lifts to the northeast off the NJ coast, expect WAA and time of day to eventually transition most ptypes to rain Monday afternoon. Rain/snow mix will still be possible across the north central mtns with little to no additional accum in the PM hours. Precip should end Monday night with dry weather expected into Tuesday.”

I would sign up for the 12z ICON for now for my yard...unless something better comes along later on...

Come on man....you might be the winner in our thread with snow on Monday! The 12z NAM came in colder for even the LSV crew. The 2 inch line is from I -81 to the north & west. The bullseye appears to be near I-80 & I-99. We are still 2 days out. Lots of time to lock in on the final details.

Yes, I was just checking out the 0z NAM. The initial conditions are cold enough for snow for all of us. We just need overnight onset with a good solid moderate precip shield & we could be in business for some accumulating snow even in The LSV.

Here is the 18z EPS & Control run, along with 850 temps at 6z & 12z Monday on the EPS. Cold enough air aloft will be available for snow from the MD line on north, if the precip comes in heavy enough.

If the better rates can make it to the LSV towards the few hours before & after daybreak, then I could see the 2-3 inch amounts getting back to areas near & south of the turnpike.

The 18z Euro keeps the Harrisburg area on north all snow for most of the event.

The rate, location & timing of the heavier precip will make the difference between accumulating snow, wet snow or plain old rain for some locations. Here is the 18z Euro.

The 0z Euro & EPS still look good for snow chances for those near & to north & west of I-81.

The 0z Canadian & 0z ICON both like the CTP snow chance for Monday.

Here is the 87 hour 18z Euro. It looks like the better rates that arrive at 90 hours help with the snow area enhancement.

The 18z EPS brings the good precip shield in to CTP before 12z Monday. This should help snow chances by bringing in moderate precip overnight & while cold air is still in place. The earlier that the snow can begin overnight will help our chances at improving accumulations. I also think that the track of the developing low to our south & east will help to keep the cold enough air for snow locked in place across most of CTP.

The 18z Euro only goes out to 90 hours, but it looks like everyone near the MD line on north will at least start out as snow on this run.

I’m happy this is not a case of GFS vs. the world. Usually the GFS loses 9 times out of 10 when it is all alone. It is good to see the Euro, EPS, Canadian & even the lowly ICON are all on board. Here is the 18z GFS.