Blizzard of 93

The 18z Euro Control at the end of its 6 day run shows a way to get the second wave to potentially come up to impact our region early next week. Energy is still available in the south to ride up to possibly deliver the goods.

I like seeing it this way for now. The recent pattern has pushed mostly every system to the north & west as the storms approach. Maybe the South East ridge will help to keep the storm from escaping out to sea??

Lol…Good work…that’s the spirit! Snow train!

Thanks for the Obs today. It was good to see a few hours of snow today!

The 6z GFS looks nice for next Monday’s snow chance.

Here is CTP’s discussion for today’s event. Moderate precipitation rates advertised from latest HRRR/HREF runs with prob 1"/hr rates ticking up for an hour or two near UNV. Mix with sleet should occur fairly quickly so not overly concerned with snow totals and have stayed close to previous. Overall, we expect 1-2 inches of snow/sleet in the Alleghenies and Blair/Hunt counties...and less than an inch elsewhere. Snow breaks out between 12z and 15z, so deteriorating conds possible during morning rush across central and western sections. Most areas will see 2-4 hours of mixed light to moderate precipitation, with a changeover to patchy freezing drizzle and then plain r-- or drizzle later this afternoon or even lasting into this evening far northeast.

Congrats this run to @TugHillMatt visiting in Danville!

The 0z GFS is still on board with the snow to mix tomorrow.

MDT & @paweather do well tomorrow with snow according to the 18z GFS.

Here it is…. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 258 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 PAZ005-010-011-017>019-025>028-034-035-056-057-059-270800- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.211227T1300Z-211227T2000Z/ McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Perry-Dauphin- Lebanon- Including the cities of Bradford, St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 258 PM EST Sun Dec 26 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 3 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest ice accumulations will be on the hill tops.

CTP has a good discussion today for tomorrow’s event. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... It`s all about precip type forecast-wise this shift. Warm air moving in over CAD/cold wedge in place will mean a period of frozen then freezing precip is likely until temps warm during the daylight hours and also from SW to NE with the WAA and diurnal heating working together despite the very shallow sun angle. In general, most locations will receive a 2-4 hr period of mix, and some locations will have FZRA stick around longer as they struggle to get above freezing. Temp profiles from NAM yield a fairly deep (2-3kft) sub-freezing layer until the aftn for UNV, later for IPT and all day for the NE mtns. Thus, there could be more sleet/PL than FZRA overall. Considering an advy for ZR for much of the area, but the Lower Susq/srn tier and also far NW/Warren Co, where the effects of CAD go away quickly. Something else going against FZRA is the abnormal warmth we have/are experiencing. Despite air temps going below freezing tonight everywhere, it may take a few more hours of below freezing temps to really make FZRA a /serious/ threat rather than nuisance/advy level. QPF is also pretty light during the most- probable time for FZRA. Thus, ice accums should not get into the warning (0.25/0.50") range anywhere in the CWA. Most likely course of action is issuance of a winter wx advy (for FZRA) for much of the area, time stepped/segmented somewhat for timing. Don`t want to get too cute with timing, though. Uncertainty with the amount of heating we can muster, and intensity of the precip. Only a light accum of snow and sleet is likely, but again, some uncertainty exists with the depth of cold wedge and eventual amount of PL. Again, temps should get above freezing by day`s end in the NE, but pretty early in the day for the SW. The highest elevations may stay coldest longest since the wedge is that deep (2-3kft). Thus, the valleys may warm and dump the FZRA threat before the hill tops.

In the short term, the 3 major globals bring 1 to 2 inches of snow to a good portion of CTP tomorrow.

The 12z Euro has the 2 wave approach on the 2nd into the 3rd. This is the second wave that brings Winter weather to PA.

All of the 3 major ensembles still have increasing snow amounts from next weekend to the end their 15-16 day total runs. Just as an trend indicator, the snow arrow is pointing in the right direction the last 2 days of ensemble runs.

The Euro train is not currently on board, but the Canadian has it. The Canadian has a 2 part storm where the first wave rides up and gives us rain and then the second wave comes up and brings the Winter storm.

I like seeing the High anchored over Quebec to feed cold air into the system. Our first major widespread event of the year could only be a week away.

The low then secondaries when it reaches western PA and then exits east off of the coast of southern NE.

Here is another look at the 6z GFS for January 2nd & 3rd. it has a solid front end thump of snow followed by a period of mixed precip.

The 6z GFS has a little snow to a mix tomorrow morning & afternoon.

For what it’s worth, there was a very notable uptick in the 15 day snow totals for CTP and the LSV on the Euro ensemble, Canadian ensemble & the GEFS today. Most of the snow increase was in week 2 as we start the New Year. Hopefully this trend continues over the next few days.

This is the CTP point & click for Harrisburg for Monday. Monday Snow showers likely before 11am, then rain and snow showers likely between 11am and 2pm, then a chance of rain showers after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

MDT only made it to 48 today. 7 degrees above normal, but not a torch like some other years.

I think most of us would sign up for this 16 day GFS run….(except for some guy from Rouzerville…)

This is why we need to do a get together someday… I have some idea of what you guys are like, but don’t have many details!

Lol, I wish that I was still that young some days! I am 44 years old with a wife, 2 daughters (8 & 10 years old) , a dog, a house & a job! I also happen to love the weather, with a particular fascination for snow! Merry Christmas!