Blizzard of 93

The pattern is currently not ideal, but CTP mentions snow a few times in their discussion today over this coming week. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thursday will start dry, but a weak short-wave will bring light snow to the western and northern tier for Thursday evening. There will be a brief break in the precipitation before the next shortwave and PVA moves overhead and brings in the next round of precipitation by Christmas Eve evening. Temperatures are on the warm side, so expect mostly rain. However, some wintry mix is possible along the northern tier and at those higher elevations/cooler spots. Precipitation will hold on through most of Christmas day. Expect a wet Christmas instead of a white Christmas as this will be mostly all rain, but it is possible for some snowflakes to mix in with the rain as the low-pressure system moves out of the area Christmas night. Another shortwave will bring an additional round of precipitation for Sunday afternoon and evening. This system looks to be colder, so there will likely be snow across the northern tier, with a chance of a wintry mix across central Pennsylvania, and a rain/snow mix possible across the southern tier. The low-pressure system will move directly over the Commonwealth, and the positioning of this system will greatly determine precipitation type. At this point, the beginning of next week looks rather unsettled. An upper-level trough is likely to bring another low-pressure system to the area Monday/Tuesday. Precipitation type at this point is uncertain, but likely a rain/snow mix.

The CTP point in click for Christmas Eve for places just north of Harrisburg, such as Pillow, has snow mentioned… Friday Night Rain and snow likely, becoming all rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

What the heck, it’s the Holidays, here is my present to @paweather The 12z Euro Control snow map.

Hey guys, I was busy watching the Eagles win! How about the 12z Euro Control run today.? If this were to verify many frowns on here would be turned upside down!

The 0z GFS & Canadian both have some snow for northern PA Christmas morning.

The 0z GFS has light snow for Christmas Eve.

The 18z GFS also has snow for northern & northeastern PA on Christmas.

The 18z GFS has some light holiday mood flakes early on Christmas Eve for most of PA.

The 12z Canadian showed snow and mixed precip for a good chuck of central & eastern PA early on Christmas.

The 0z Canadian had a colder look for next week and showed some snow potential for next Wednesday.

Good points again. Indeed I have no rules as to when I get my snow. I do understand and appreciate those that have preferences as to when they get their snow. In our region, we can’t expect continuous snowy patterns from December through March. I just hope that we capitalize when when we do have good periods.

Great point. This why, in terms of weather, I posted a couple of reminders of how long we had to wait for snow even in very good or great Winters.

I was recently thinking of our “good” Winters. There is usually a lot of waiting and down time between good periods even in the good Winters. How about the Winter of 14-15? We had a snowstorm right before Thanksgiving. Then we had almost nothing until around January 20th. The good pattern then locked in from late January until mid-March. We ended up about 10 inches of snow above normal for the season. Patience was rewarded that year.

Thanks, #nevergiveup

Lol…Hey now…I made no punting mention recently… Team snow!

Was the 09-10 Winter a bad Winter in CTP? We only had 4 events…. It was one of the best Winter’s over the last few decades. We had 1 good storm around December 20th that brought around 10 inches of snow. Then we had almost nothing until the blockbuster February week of 2 great storms around the 5th & 10th. Then back here we got a glancing blow later in February from the “snowicane” that gave Harrisburg around 6 inches of snow. Of course No one is expecting a repeat of that year. My point is that we have plenty of time to score at least 4 good Winter events. Patience is a difficult thing to manage…

Patience is needed. We are still in good shape heading into early January.

Phase 7 is good in late December and January in a La Niña.

Seasonal temps here this week right near average in the low to mid 40s.

I like the MU call. The majority of even our decent Winters are built on these types of storms. We usually have at least a few changeover or mixed bag storms every year. Most of time we are adding up 2.8 +1.9 + 3.6 etc. of snow to get to our yearly total amounts. Storms that bring a widespread snow of 6+ or 12+ are rare. We just had 2 double digit storms last year, so odds are against it this year. I am ready to enjoy a a Winter storm in whatever way we can get it!

Temps are definitely stepped down this week from last week’s 50s & 60s. Here is my point & click for the next 5 days… The colder pattern change is underway…very seasonal average temps here… This Afternoon Sunny, with a high near 40. North wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Monday Sunny, with a high near 40. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 26. South wind 3 to 5 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 44. Light and variable wind. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.

Here are the Euro and Canadian ensembles for day 13 (not day 15…). The good looks are not moving backwards in time. These show the trough in the east and good blocking up top. Ridging is moving in the right direction off of the west coast. We should be in business towards the end of the month and early in the New Year.

@paweather Maybe this will hold you over until 12z today. The 6z GFS has a little snow for us next Tuesday.

I would recommend to some of you take a look around at the different regional forums on here. Many of the long time quality respected and knowledgeable posters are very optimistic at the progression and look of the ensembles from week 2 onward.