Give me an inch of precip like the 18z Euro shows & I like the Harrisburg area’s chances to score Warning level snow with this low track & cold enough air in place.
If the precip stays moderate to heavy, it should stay mostly snow in my opinion based on my experiences over the years.
The only model overnight that wasn’t half decent for the southern tier was the Euro.
The rest of the CTP, especially near I-81 & points north & west are still in really good shape.
0z GFS gets Warning level snow to the Susquehanna Valley, but cut back from 18z due to less precip. The 18z had over 1 inch of precip, while the 0z was near .7