Blizzard of 93

I agree 100% with you! If we are initially cold enough for snow, I don’t believe that we change to rain with a slightly offshore low track that is intensifying as it tracks from NC to NJ. If anything, the precip shield should expand & the column should cool with that Euro look.

I really like the look of the 18z 3k NAM for all of CTP. The run ends at 60 hours Friday evening, so there would a more for the eastern part of the region to follow before it ends early Saturday.

Many of us will do well on Friday, but south of the turnpike could struggle.

Here is the combined total snow for both events on the 12z GFS & 12z Canadian by Tuesday am. Best short to medium term snow map combination of the season for Harrisburg on 2 models at this range.

It’s all about the rates.

The 12z Canadian looks great for Monday am. Snow map is just the Monday storm period. Warning snow again from Harrisburg to the west & north.

My lunch hour tour of weather models…. I will sign now for 12z GFS for Friday pm. Advisory snow for southern tier & Warning snow from Harrisburg on to the north.

6z Euro is on board for Friday pm snow. Hopefully today we continue to build a consensus.

My CTP zone has it mentioned. They will probably update today. They can’t ignore it any longer now that the GFS is on board. slight chance of snow before 10am, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 10am and 1pm, then rain likely after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday Night Rain before 4am, then rain and snow likely. Low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Snow likely before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

6z GFS 2 event snow total.

6z GFS snow map just for Monday’s storm.

Best GFS run yet for the Monday storm. Good low track that produces another solid Advisory event this run with more upside potential thanks to the good track.

6z GFS looks good for Friday pm with an Advisory level event for the LSV with more snow to the north this run.

Good news on the 0z EPS for the Monday event. The mean low tracks well for us & the main cluster of individual ensemble members are to the east of the 0z Euro Op run that had the low track over Delaware.

Congrats on the 5 inches of snow near Williamsport yesterday! The LSV would have been thrilled to get even half of that yesterday instead of our shut out. These upcoming 2 events look to produce a good chance for all of us this coming week.

Here is the Combined 2 event total snow through Tuesday evening on the 0z Euro. Again, an improvement over the 12z run. While there is more upside potential for the second event, I would gladly sign up for this map right now for my yard!

Here is the 0z Euro snow just for the Monday & Tuesday period. This was an improvement over the 12z Euro.

The 0z Euro for Monday into Tuesday has another Warning level event for Harrisburg on to the north & west this run. This run has a coastal hugger that flips the LSV from snow to rain as the low reaches Delaware. If the track can Shift the slightly to the east, there would be even more upside potential.

0z Euro looks even better for wave 1. Warning level snow in the Harrisburg area by Saturday am.

0z GFS looks good for most for Wave 1.

Agreed! The 18z EPS has a fantastic look for the second event on Monday. Here are the low locations. Great clustering of the individual ensemble members just about exactly where we want them.

Yes indeed! The 18z Euro ensemble & Control are on board as well for Friday pm into Saturday am.

18z Euro snow map Very nice forum wide event this run.

Here is something that won’t “Ruin” everyone’s evening…. The 18z Euro looks great for a solid Advisory level snow event for all of CTP!

I think we would stay snow with an airmass initially cold enough for moderate snow. No way we change to rain with a rapidly strengthening coastal that tracks offshore from NC to NJ.