Blizzard of 93

The 12z models each were showing some type of Winter weather in PA around the 29th.

Light snow never stopped all day in Marysville, but sometimes it was lighter than others. Currently sitting at 3” for the day, but hoping for a few more tenths if we get hit with a streamer.

Looking at current radar, there is a fairly large area of light snow stretching back to western PA that should move east this afternoon. We should have several more hours of light snow to go today.

Checking in over lunch, I’m happy to hear that most of our southern tier counties are doing well. I just measured 2.3” in Marysville with steady light snow continuing.

Radar is starting fill in that small gap near Cumberland, MD. Lots of precip back in OH & WV as well

MDT reporting Snow with .5 mile visibility at 8 am Ob.

Rate & flake size increasing in Marysville currently. Eyeballing about 1 inch on the ground.

6z Euro

The event is in the early stages. Lots of precip still in the Midwest. This will fill in & we should have snow of varying rates all day.

Light snow in Marysville with all surfaces caved instantly.

Good to see most models with a slight uptick for many of us this evening.

Accuweather map has all of the southern half of PA in the 3 to 6 range.

0z NAM has a decent bump up for Harrisburg, Lancaster & York over 18z. 0z top 18z bottom

Yes, I just noticed that as well. This is the point & click for Harrisburg International from a minute ago. Maybe they will be bumping up the Advisory amounts again this evening?

Remember your photo of your snow covered ride on Front St. on Tuesday?

Yes, pretty much a hold on 0z HRRR for the LSV vs. 18z. This 0z run actually has a little more snow for Harrisburg & Lancaster than 18z. 0z top 18z bottom

My goal for this storm for MDT is for them to get 3.6 tomorrow to get to an even 10 inches for the season to date. This would make them basically even with the average snow through tomorrow’s date for the season.

More from the CTP discussion: There could be 1-2 more-consistent, heavier bands of snow, though. One should/likely be a W-E band parallel to the storm track but 100 or so miles north of it, perhaps running somewhere just S of UNV but N of the Turnpike. Much of the forcing is gone by 21Z with another deformation zone and associated snow band possible for the SE as the sfc low starts to deepen as it moves out to sea. A band like this (later in the storm) would likely pivot more NE-SW and affect a wider land area than a W-E band would. The latest guidance infuses more confidence in these slightly higher numbers. Still a bit of spread in storm total QPF from the ensembles, but a 0.25 mean across the SE and 15-18:1 SLR for the afternoon should get them above 3", esp on the hill tops. SLRs remain higher than 15:1 across the region with 20:1 values likely in the NW.

Great write up from CTP this evening. The energy diving southeast from the Upper Plains which will make the snow will soon expand and intensify the precip shield over the OH valley. I think it a rather beefy Clipper that taps some GOMEX and Atlantic mstr as it moves toward and across PA. A progressive low track across the Mid-Atlantic just S of PA is classic for light-moderate snowfalls here.

CTP has this on their website.

Possible! Heck, like @Itstrainingtime mentioned, Williamsport got 5 inches on Tuesday when they were supposed to be on the northern edge of the lighter Advisory for northern CTP.

18z Euro improved a bit for many in the LSV. 18z top 12z bottom

The latest HRRR looks to be juicing up a bit for the LSV from previous hourly runs. I like where this run ends at 16z tomorrow morning.

Not sure if it was posted earlier, but here is DT’s First Call, while we wait for his Last Call. His 4 inch line moved south, but he has a large area of 6+ in the northern half of CTP that really hasn’t showed on the models.