The 3 major ensembles are featuring a -NAO for the first week of December. The EPS has the best look, but the pattern looks workable on each with chances for Winter weather a possibility.
Each of the 3 major global ensembles still have a favorable looking pattern for the last week of November into the first week of December.
We could have some chances with these looks showing.
It is also good to see a general agreement at this range.
The pattern being advertised on the ensembles & towards the end of the Op runs for the last week of November into the first week of December should provide a window of opportunity for potential Winter weather in our region.
I like the look of the 12z Canadian out at day 9. The system this run ends up passing off to our south, but I would take my chances with this look.
Hopefully we get this type of chance several times this season.
I wish that the 12z Euro run went out 1 or 2 days more to see where all of the moisture in the south central & Gulf states would have tracked with the cold air in place in our region.
Let’s see later on if the EPS will continue to be favorable for the last week of the month?