Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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This runs from Sunday evening until Wednesday evening, but give me a minute.
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Here is the 12z EPS snow just for this 12th to 14th period.
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Good signal on the 12z EPS for the 12th to 14th potential. The precip panels seem to indicate a flatter potential, but the mean low positions have the same general idea with a western track low transferring to the coast. Long way to go, but we might finally have something specific to track.
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Same theme on the 12z GEFS. Better pattern arrives by the 13th & is going strong with impressive Greenland blocking by the 20th.
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Here you go.
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Here is the 12z Euro snow map for this run for this potential event on the 12th.
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The Euro has a Nice front end thump of snow on the 12th. Then it changes to a mix & rain for the southern tier. The low transfers a bit late for us this run to keep us all frozen, but we have a long way to go. I would take this to start off the new pattern.
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Canadian ensemble looks good at 10 & continues through day 16. Look at that blocking on day 16…
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I wouldn’t recommend planting anything now with what looks to be on the way for the second half of February.
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Good thing the GEFS is still on track with the better look on day 10 & 12.
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It really went off the rails this run. Hopefully it gets a clue in the coming days.
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The SOI continues its tanking, which it has been doing for the last several days. Here’s the latest.
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Hopefully the other guidance continues to push the 13th chance south. Just a day or 2 ago it was showing as a cutter on the long range GFS & ensembles.
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Lol, I do not know that particular snowman…!
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So, you’re saying it’s right where we want it at this range according to my handbook.
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I think my back yard low for the year so far is 8. Maybe I’ll get the chance to beat that once snow cover returns this month.
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How is Dubois looking?
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@mitchnick should be happy to see that the 0z ensembles are all looking good at the end of their 15/16 day runs. The EPS backed off on the week ridging “yellow”. Now the closest yellow is in western Iowa at the end of the EPS. All 3 continue to show strong Greenland blocking with the STJ undercutting.
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The Op runs that I posted are starting to show that Winter is still here & coming back to hopefully produce Winter Storm chances again by mid month.
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MDT currently sitting at 27 degrees.
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The 6z GFS has a storm getting to the coast on the 16th with a CTP snow chance.
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The 0z Euro this run has a Winter Storm chance on the 13th with a snowstorm for northern PA & a mix changing to snow for southern PA as the low transfers to the coast.
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@MAG5035 what are your thoughts on the upcoming pattern change potential?
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The 12z EPS teleconnections are all screaming that the advertised pattern is on track as we get towards day 10. Every index is forecast to go right where we want them.
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I’m not worried about day 15 or 16 caving with the good look that it is showing as I described above. Snow maps will respond once a specific threat is identified.
