Blizzard of 93
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Everything posted by Blizzard of 93
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I just looked at the 6z NAM & I like how far south the snow is showing before the coastal gets going at the end of the run.
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We need a lot to go right for this event to work out, but at least we have a chance.
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The full 6z GFS looks loaded with opportunities to score over the next 2 weeks. If that look holds, we should have chances.
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Long way to go & at least we are in the game in what we originally thought would be a lost week for any chance.
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6z Euro has a decent coastal low position. If there are good rates & you have a little elevation, some could score a little snow out of this.
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Yes, the 6z GFS is very nice for all of CTP. The High is in a good spot up in Quebec It is the best run since the Euro yesterday. This will be very interesting to watch the models today & tomorrow as hopefully consensus builds.
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Long way to go…soon we can add the RGEM & NAM to the mix.
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I think the key will be to weaken the primary before WV & then jump the low to the coast in the DelMarVa.
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Here is more from the 18z EPS with the mean low position & 6 hr. precip. I like that low position off of the coast of the DelMarVa.
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18z EPS still looks good for the chance at the rain to snow scenario for a good chunk of CTP. This run held on to the initial low a little longer into WV than the 12z run, so the snow mean was a little further north in CTP, but close enough for the LSV to still be in the game.
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Weird 18z GFS solution for Sunday. I just like that we are back in the game after a couple of bad days of trends. Today’s runs overall were a step in the right direction.
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It’s better alright…
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ALEET , ALEET! Lunchtime ALEET 12z Euro…. For Sunday night. If this happens, we should call it the @mitchnickstorm!
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The Sunday snow chance showed some signs of life on the 0z & 6z models with a secondary low exiting east off of the coast. We still need to watch for a possible rain to snow scenario.
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lol, true, but they did show some good fight last night battling back from 3-0 down to make it close.
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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3
Blizzard of 93 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yes indeed. The 18z GEFS ends with a good look by the 8th. -
As @mitchnick mentioned, the 18z GEFS run ends with a good look by the 8th. No can kicking on the Ensembles or Weeklies. Once we flip back to a good pattern, hopefully it locks in until March.
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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3
Blizzard of 93 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
The Euro weeklies then lock the good pattern in from the second week of February through early March. -
We just need a little patience & then Winter could deliver again in February & early March, even better than the good 2 weeks that we just had here in January.
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The EPS weeklies then lock the good pattern in from the second week of February through early March.
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The Euro Weeklies do indeed continue to look good beginning by 2/11. Here is the snapshot for that single day.
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Great list! March of 2017 must have just missed. I think MDT had near 18” for that one.
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Good, as it has been mentioned by some on here, this looks a lot like the late December to first week of January progression that we just went through. The Winter storm chances should follow a few days later.
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Yes, a few runs of the GFS & Euro the last few days pulled off a good track, with just cold enough to make it interesting around here, but not a good trend overnight. If they don’t trend back later today, this event will probably not have a chance for us.
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Unfortunately, the Euro & GFS are now taking the Sunday low up well to our west, but the Canadian still has hope for snow for northern PA on this 0z run.
