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Orangeburgwx

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  1. Orangeburgwx
    .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain across the region Wednesday into Friday morning, with another cold front then moving into through the area Friday afternoon, and pushing well south of the cwa into Saturday. Dry conditions will continue into Friday. The chance for precipitations will return Friday night as moisture overruns the frontal boundary stalled to our south. The main concern in the long term is the potential for a winter mix over the Piedmont and north Midlands Saturday into Sunday. Confidence is low at this time as to the location and amount of winter weather given models differences. Models develop an area of low pressure along the frontal boundary to our south. The ECMWF has the area low pressure farther south than the GFS...thus allowing colder air and the chance for winter weather to possibly affect the northern Midlands and Piedmont Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the mid 30s and again Saturday night as lows dip into the low and mid 30s. This cold and wet pattern is expected to continue into Sunday as the area of low pressure crosses the southeastern states and moves off the Carolina coast. Confidence remains low and much can change between now and then, so will continue to monitor through the week. Come on NWS drop the hammer and tell the truth...
  2. Orangeburgwx
    Is it just me or is the FV3 keeps trending colder each run
  3. Orangeburgwx
    17" IMBY on the 6z FV3...that's a lot of sleet
  4. Orangeburgwx
    I still got 9/50 on the EURO and the FV3 is holding serve... No complaints
  5. Orangeburgwx
    1mb stronger too
  6. Orangeburgwx
    FV3 is flatter at 84, not as much suppression so add it to the dumpster
  7. Orangeburgwx
    SFC low at 144 is a hair further ESE and a tad quicker than 18z
  8. Orangeburgwx
    How does it look over SC vs the 12z?
  9. Orangeburgwx
    How's it look? More suppressed to the south or ticked north?
  10. Orangeburgwx
    If you get it send pics
  11. Orangeburgwx
    High too strong, second low stays off the coast
  12. Orangeburgwx
    Here comes the cut off low at 210... Temps in the 20s all the way to Savannah
  13. Orangeburgwx
    0z: 8/50 ensembles give me snow 12z: 31/50
  14. Orangeburgwx
    Is that the master?
  15. Orangeburgwx
    Welcome back
  16. Orangeburgwx
    FV3 on pivotal gives me .75" of snow and .4" ZR on the Kuchera
  17. Orangeburgwx
    No I won't, I will simply flat out admit I was wrong
  18. Orangeburgwx
    Omg that FV3 clown map...
  19. Orangeburgwx
    Southern edge is almost down to Columbia now... Let's see what the FV3 has in store
  20. Orangeburgwx
    Sorry everyone if it seems that im being a weenie, will try to curb my excitement...
  21. Orangeburgwx
    Banana high is a term used when a high (or pair of highs) bends around an area of low pressure and blocks it. It happened with Hurricane Florence and set it on a path to the Carolinas instead of OTS. The GFS has a track record (pun intended) for showing that BS about pile driving into HPs, it isn't going to happen, so the low will track further south as has been shown with both the GEFS (the GFS ensembles) and the EPS (Euro ensembles). That major suppression is why even my area is going to get at least SL/FL (Sleet or Flurries), I hope this helps.
  22. Orangeburgwx
    Not a bad look this far out
  23. Orangeburgwx
    Less than a week out and all indicies show both Carolinas getting something... So let's bring this one all the way home
  24. Orangeburgwx
    73 was a Super El Nino... Just a reminder...
  25. Orangeburgwx
    You serious?
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