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Orangeburgwx

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  1. Orangeburgwx
    .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The main concern during the medium-range period is a possibility of a wintry precipitation mix. The GFS and ECMWF indicate a cold front sinking southward and moving through the forecast area Friday or Friday night. Little moisture will be associated with this front initially because of the dry ridging ahead of the front. The pressure ridge behind the front will extend from the Midwest into the mid-Atlantic region over the weekend. The ridge will direct a cold northerly flow into the forecast area. Low pressure near the Gulf Coast Saturday may be along the Southeast Coast Sunday and Monday. The GFS and ECMWF and most of the ensemble guidance exhibit this general pattern but with enough inconsistency in the surface and upper features for a low confidence precipitation-type forecast. Moisture ahead of the Gulf Coast system may reach the forecast area as early as Friday night. The moisture may remain high through Monday. There may be a mid-level dry slot which the models have shown affecting the area at different times which further complicates the forecast. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF forecast soundings have generally indicated a cold rain in central and south sections but a mix toward the North Carolina border. A considerable number of GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support periods of frozen precipitation in the north. Most but not all members have liquid precipitation in the south. There has been differences with respect to a mid-level cut off low developing and in its position. A farther south track with a strong upper system would indicate a threat of winter precipitation even in the Central Savannah River Area. The threat in the south would probably hold off longer and depend on the upper system Monday. We have forecasted likely rain with the chance of frozen precipitation confined to the north part for now. This was supported by the 00z ECMWF using the top-down method. Based on the ensemble guidance at this time, we believe the threat of significant winter precipitation during the Saturday to Monday time frame is about 30 percent in Lancaster County in the north to just 5 to 10 percent farther south in the Columbia to Augusta area. && Oh boy... Things just got interesting...
  2. Orangeburgwx
    Snow is 30 miles to my east, I got a feeling that the ensembles are going to give me one good run at the minimum
  3. Orangeburgwx
    Yep, heavy stuff was nice while it lasted for me... Good luck guys but 8/20 GFS members still gave me at least a dusting so im not bailing just yet
  4. Orangeburgwx
    That LP is way south of 6z
  5. Orangeburgwx
    It will be close either way... Temps out west are warmer but here in the SE they are slightly cooler (at both the 850 and 2m) with a little deeper pocket of negatives near the NC/VA border
  6. Orangeburgwx
    FV3-GFS, it is replacing the old one come next month https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018120312&fh=240
  7. Orangeburgwx
    You have no idea how bad I needed that laughing fit I just had after reading that... Thank you
  8. Orangeburgwx
    Hr66 on the FV3 is trending colder than 6z
  9. Orangeburgwx
    Not a good start... Out to 78, HP 1mb weaker and slightly further north...
  10. Orangeburgwx
    6z FV3 shifted the cold back south a little bit... Something to monitor today
  11. Orangeburgwx
    That will easily washout the dirt road in front of my house, will be way worse if the CAD mixes it to a nasty ZR/SL/SN mixture
  12. Orangeburgwx
    2.0" for my area holy hell...
  13. Orangeburgwx
    We will have to wait until 11am for the 12z GFS, if it comes in like the FV3 that means suppression is still on. The 0z runs always suck anyway
  14. Orangeburgwx
    .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain across the region Wednesday into Friday morning, with another cold front then moving into through the area Friday afternoon, and pushing well south of the cwa into Saturday. Dry conditions will continue into Friday. The chance for precipitations will return Friday night as moisture overruns the frontal boundary stalled to our south. The main concern in the long term is the potential for a winter mix over the Piedmont and north Midlands Saturday into Sunday. Confidence is low at this time as to the location and amount of winter weather given models differences. Models develop an area of low pressure along the frontal boundary to our south. The ECMWF has the area low pressure farther south than the GFS...thus allowing colder air and the chance for winter weather to possibly affect the northern Midlands and Piedmont Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the mid 30s and again Saturday night as lows dip into the low and mid 30s. This cold and wet pattern is expected to continue into Sunday as the area of low pressure crosses the southeastern states and moves off the Carolina coast. Confidence remains low and much can change between now and then, so will continue to monitor through the week. Come on NWS drop the hammer and tell the truth...
  15. Orangeburgwx
    Is it just me or is the FV3 keeps trending colder each run
  16. Orangeburgwx
    17" IMBY on the 6z FV3...that's a lot of sleet
  17. Orangeburgwx
    I still got 9/50 on the EURO and the FV3 is holding serve... No complaints
  18. Orangeburgwx
    1mb stronger too
  19. Orangeburgwx
    FV3 is flatter at 84, not as much suppression so add it to the dumpster
  20. Orangeburgwx
    SFC low at 144 is a hair further ESE and a tad quicker than 18z
  21. Orangeburgwx
    How does it look over SC vs the 12z?
  22. Orangeburgwx
    How's it look? More suppressed to the south or ticked north?
  23. Orangeburgwx
    If you get it send pics
  24. Orangeburgwx
    High too strong, second low stays off the coast
  25. Orangeburgwx
    Here comes the cut off low at 210... Temps in the 20s all the way to Savannah
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