WinterWolf

This is going to do the usual “it’s there, it’s not their”, routine that a lot of the bigger ones(phased systems) seem to do, especially at this lead time. We’ve seen 5 OP hits(yesterday’s 12z GFS and Euro; yesterday’s 18z GFS; 0z Euro; todays 6z GFS)since it came back from the dead yesterday at 12z. Six if we count last Tuesday when it first made a 1 time showing. So it’s had more than just a few showings. If we think back to the bigger events over the past, the back and forth is always there. Boxing Day; the second big one in Jan 11; Feb 13; Jan ’15(that came back from the dead at 2.5 days away); just to name a few, were all there and then gone at some stage. It almost seems to be a right of passage at this point a lot of times. Maybe due to the length at which we seem to track them from is also a good reason too. Of course some never come back, but the ones that did, they seem to always go away for awhile/or go back and forth before a solid consensus emerges one way or the other. So I think we are entering that wishy washy stage of this potential now as well.

It didn’t look all that progressive to me. It starts snowing around 160, and it’s still snowing at 180..that doesn’t look all that quick compared to some of late. It’s probably not worth much at this lead, but just what I noticed.

I wasn’t looking or talking totals, I was just looking at the set up in general on that run. But yes, to be sure, long way to go.

One at a time Ice…we gotta reel this in first. Let’s not get ahead of, or over our skis.

Obviously no guarantees at all, but if you look at the H5 depiction on that Euro, and the SLP track and intensity, and it isn’t exactly flying by either(taking it’s time), there is some upper end potential there…putting clown maps aside. Ensembles are also indicating a strong signal as well. So some positive developments at 0z.

That’s great everywhere on that look. We endorse.

I like the idea that the Euro is bringing that SW energy out and phasing it now on two consecutive runs. That H5 is full of explosiveness. Seeing the Euro do what it did, and also the GEFS improve is a significant positive.

Well that won’t be the final solution, so it’s kind of a moot point at 7 days out. But if you say so Roosta.

Wasn’t it like 1:15 am or so by the time it was able to be seen?

For sure…especially being a weekend on top of it as you said.

There won’t be any fights…we good.

Thanks. I’d be pretty happy if that solution played as is at 18z too I think. At least something to track is a good thing.

Trying to figure out what you’re saying here Scott ?

Jugs are in.

I was thinking that too…it was New Year’s Eve(Tue) that it showed that bomb.

And I’m no fan of CFS no matter what.

That would take care of both our snow issues in our respective areas for riding, if that thing came into like the gulf of Maine like that.

Yes, that’s a nice thing to see.

Oh for sure, absolutely. I just like that the energy in the southwest is being brought out by both major models(especially the ECMWF now).

Well we have cross guidance support now for a deep system…deets to be determined of course. Euro looks like it kicked all that Ba Ha energy out and phased it in..,at least we have that now. I’ll take the chance on that rather than what we saw before.

We’re all on edge…we need a decent system to track. I wasn’t angry at anybody, just thought the complaining should be kept to the proper thread. I obviously don’t deny it’s sucked the last 2-3 years for all of us(and even more so in some areas). It sticks in my craw too…believe me. The trolls piss me off..I’ve blocked them so that it doesn’t elicit a reaction from me anymore, because I come here to see and learn what the pros(and knowledgeable hobbyists like yourself)are saying and thinking, and don’t need to see dozens of nonsense posts. That’s it in a nutshell.

Wow..lol. I’ll have to start emoji-ing the excrement sign more often I guess. Cuz there’s lot of that here, that I just most times let go. But thanks again.

The crazy part is that word is way overused now by the half ass media. Every bigger storm is a Bomb-cyclone now.

It’s All good. We track.

And you sir have obviously been “Hailstoned” into ignorance, but we’ll leave it at that. We have a storm to track.