WinterWolf

no such luck on 1/8. Lots and lots of torture to come.

I thought it backed off quite a bit in that mid range too…but I remember it being steadfast for 4 cycles in a row out of the gate. .

You’re right Paul. I don’t look at any of that trash. If it wasn’t for this place I’d have zero social media.

Just stay away for a while..you’ll feel so much better. Went to bed at 10:00 and then checked just now. That’ll be it till after noon. When I check back, and see only 40-50 posts, you know it’s crap. If there’s 100 plus posts, something might have changed. Unless it’s all ridiculous posts like last night with fights over seasonal snow…..

To be honest I think it went 4 times in a row…but it did eventually lose it too, then of course brought it back.

To be fair, There were about 5 runs of the GFS that showed a bomb, and two Euro runs. And some good ensemble runs too.

That’s not what I said or meant..we’ve had model failures at go time a few times now in the last year. So with that being said I don’t trust remote sensing all that much way up in the Arctic for something that hasn’t come on shore yet.

He’s a young kid…he doesn’t know how it was before he was born. They overachieved with almost every storm for a long run..that has warped thinking and expectations. So now it’s been all suck for a while which will even out the monster run that area experienced. It sucks, but it was due..especially there. Ok fair enough. I appreciate that explanation. And agree…except for the idea that some of this modeling of late has been far less than stellar right up to go time. So I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in it due to fails as systems are moving in..let alone at 4 days out. But that’s just my take.

Ok, that is true, so what’s gonna happen? Does the northern stream take over in future runs, and give us a decent event? Does it go OTS? Does the energy coming on shore tonight and tomorrow get better sampled and bring us back to a more major event? Does something else pop up over the next 4 days that change this altogether? What’s your take. Lots of variables here.

Obviously the IPA’s have taken hold.

Let’s be real Kev…nobody knows what the fuck it’s gonna do. Look at yesterday…people were saying “ITS COMING” lol. A day later…it’s almost over. If we knew it was gonna miss completely, there would be no need to see the next model cycle. So we kid and laugh, but it’s the truth.

I mean at 4 days out…that’s not exactly a bad place to have it. I know it goes east from there, but small/minute changes would bring that up the coast much further. Maybe that POS Baja S/W can just move even further southwest, and let the Northern stream takeover completely after this is better sampled.

She’s shifting gears…A to big ass B.

That’s why a small smidge of difference is enormous. Got 2 days till any phasing, and 4 to go time. Crazier Shit has happened before.

Being it’s Tuesday and this system is Saturday pm…there sure is.

For you a scraper may be perfect…may just work out for you.

Ok see ya later bud. Check back in Friday just to see if anything changed.

I mean I guess you could consider it at any time. But on January 7th…. I don’t think that’s a reasonable idea. If it was Feb 27 th I’d be right with you. But that’s just me. You did well on 12/20, when that was waffling back and forth to the very last second. So I mean this is 4.5 days out still. There will be more changes to come on this.

I have a feeling tomorrow’s modeling will be different yet again. This movie ain’t done yet.

I still think this thing has a few surprises left…she’s tricky.

Lol…it’s gonna drag out for a while…she’s a nasty beotch.

Said this a couple hrs ago..it’s morphing.

So you’re off the “it’s coming train?”

I said it would be Wednesday before we know anything definitive, but it may actually be Thursday now. This is a complex beast…still evolving.

Lol…