dilly84

3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 

Hes so optimistic he's sharing his own post lol

Disregard. Still sleet. Got quite a bit if freezing rain, however 

34 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

It's way too early to be throwing in the towel given even the best models had mixing until later this afternoon.  Now that I'm looking at metars, snow is now being reported almost everywhere along a line from Hamilton through Dayton, London, Marysville and Delaware.  Many of those places were reporting sleet or freezing rain about an hour ago.   

The issue is nws says the 2nd wave arrived sooner than thought, which to me translates that the colder air didn't have as much time to push east. Idk we'll see. Not liking reports I'm getting

2 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

The noon HRRR keeps the sleet/snow line....virtually unmoved for the next 8 hours before slowly sinking SE. Here it is 8 hours down the line....

 

I'm just not seeing it. We need the cold to shift se about 20 miles to get close to this and soon.

6 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Or meteorologists!!!

You hush your mouth Mr pessimist lol check my page. You can see user reports and get an idea of the sleet line.

5 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

It's way too early to be throwing in the towel given even the best models had mixing until later this afternoon.  Now that I'm looking at metars, snow is now being reported almost everywhere along a line from Hamilton through Dayton, London, Marysville and Delaware.  Many of those places were reporting sleet or freezing rain about an hour ago.   

Per user report galena(Delaware area) is still sleet. 

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

currently but not necessarily accurate.  I'm just north of where it says westerville

Not accurate. I can see mount vernon up there. Can confirm it's very light sleet here.

2 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Do we know where the snow line is currently ... regardless of bogus radar data?

Based on reports on my page, this is roughly where

1 minute ago, pondo1000 said:

Score 1 for the RGEM I guess. I’m calling it…TOD…8:12 AM

Kinda funny that nws upped their totals. I mean if it's still sleeting in by 10am that's when I'll officially call it.

Report that it's still sleet even in morrow County. Hang it up. That's the county west of me so they're even further in the snow on radar. 

Radar showing me as all snow, but its sleet and light sleet at that. All while nws cle ups my totals citing a quicker changeover

2 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

That will be the tell.

It's apparently snowing in marysvilMarysville, but radar shows them sleeting

17 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

No real reports of mixing that I've seen in the transition zone so far- just rain to snow.  Hopefully that can translate east in the 71 corridor.

I'm roughly 20 miles from the rain snow line on radar, so will soon get to see how accurate radar is, if it's picking up on sleet etc

17 minutes ago, buckeye said:

How's that been trending?

Yesterday my location it had 1 over 8" this was 03z

Sref plumes. Several members over 10"

Nam was going great then a dry slot appears and changes i71 corridor back to sleet.. 

38 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I'll be sleeping very lightly with my radar handy on my phone and this forum open.  Looks like timeline is between 1 and 4 am for the change from liquid to frozen, then the million dollar question is when the frozen turns to flakes.   I've seen some models have it as early as 5am and of course we have the rgem that really never changes over to all snow until evening.

If it's snowing at 6am, we'll be in very good shape.

 

0z Hrrr has me switching to snow at 6am see how accurate that is. I'm also curious if it'll be one of those deals where it's snows for an hour then sleets for an hour then snows etc.

11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Betsy Kling on WKYC Cleveland seems confident of heavy snow in the wee and early morning hours in the Cleveland/Akron area, then a let-up around noon time, then a second strong wave of heavy snow tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Local Cleveland mets expect heavy snow totals.

I have cleveland in 12-18"

Who's staying up to track it? I'll be up til at least 3a

24 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

It's not the surface temps you have to worry about.

No but it's still a weak system with a pressing high. Idk. We'll see. I'm sticking with my sleet line lol

57 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Don’t do this to yourself, Dilly.  It’s not going to happen and then you’re going to come in here pissed.  You need an intervention, bud!  

My map was for 6-8 for us.

55 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Don’t do this to yourself, Dilly.  It’s not going to happen and then you’re going to come in here pissed.  You need an intervention, bud!  

I know, but we've never gotten to the modeled temps today, and I just dont think that waa is string enough to overcome that cold front. I think it'll be close and the sleet line will be around eastern coshocton/Guernsey county and southwest from there. 

1 minute ago, pondo1000 said:

18z bad?

It was better than 12z. 

1 minute ago, jaf316 said:

Yeah, the GFS has shown virtually the same solution for 11 straight runs. If it ends up being wrong it'll be a pretty epic fail. 

21z rap and 18z gfs both showing over a foot now.

22 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

I would love for the GFS to be right, but..........  I don't see it.   

Only model to be consistent. I went with a lowered version of the gfs. Wont be surprised if it's not more. We've not even gotten close to the modeled high.