The 4 Seasons

cancellations are warranted imo. its not all about snow amounts. its just one factor. its way more nuanced than that. you can a wet snow 3-6" overnight that doesnt accumulate much on roads and melts by morning and the roads are fine by 7AM

i can't decipher this

probably more in the way of cancellations then delays you think?

Small update to bring the 1-3" line down into CNJ

it was to me, ive seen it the whole time...very odd. I think conservative is the way to go with this one, frankly 1-3 might be too high. We'll see how tomorrows runs shake out.

Very good trends for the 9th event on the GFS/GEM/ICON and lots of potential for the 12-14th period. Ensembles still very bullish on that period.

First thing i thought of was "5D Chess"

Our first call for the event. With things trending colder (and drier) may have to move that 1-3 line down a bit. GFS and other model trends with qpf are not so great.

I'm noticing a trend here

5D?

1-3 for all of CT? Kevin not gonna like that. Pretty much what were going

NAM and 3K is like virtually nothing for CT

they also both include 2 and 3". you're focusing on the higher end of one and lower end of another. The impacts are what matter, its a a pretty light event but high impact due to the sleet/ice and timing.

I saw. @Sey-Mour Snow and I think it will be more uniform...and not the not so great look with pcp shield, snow growth etc, things we've mentioned earlier posts. We'll see tomorrow, im not digging my heels in and refusing to change anything...just where were at right now

First call, if nothing major changes will keep for the final. Going relatively bearish with this one. Edit: Added SNE

defintely ticked south overall a hair...getting closer to what the GEM/GFS/NAM are showing

Def came south too and the follow up came NW good run

GFS took a haircut on qpf but the overall evolution and track remains consistent

Everything seems to be coming south. EC is on its own with that look. Still dont expect a whole lot of snow out of this though.

Advisories up for BOX, 1-4" of snow/sleet/zr. seems about right

Ok. Here's my thoughts right now.. Euro definitely the farthest to the right with warm air and SLP riding up north. The other models seem to be all in agreement with the low transfer happening south of us going over around ACK ish, helping to lock in the cold air. Snow growth isn't impressive at all. Most of the lift occuring outside the DGZ on most of the models ive seen. Which is pretty typical with these type of systems punching in warm air aloft as we get going. In terms of snow, id probably lean pretty conservative. Still looks like its going to be a mess though on Thursday and probably a tough call for schools. But with the sleet and freezing rain forecast i think most will close. I think the NWS has right idea. I think you're going to be hard pressed to see much more than around an inch of snow in and around the city into LI. IF that, maybe just a coating

Tough forecast right now. Euro definitely the farthest to the right with warm air and SLP riding up north. The other models seem to be all in agreement with the low transfer happening south of us going over around ACK ish, helping to lock in the cold air. Snow growth isn't impressive at all. Most of the lift occuring outside the DGZ on most of the models ive seen. Which is pretty typical with these type of systems punching in warm air aloft as we get going. In terms of snow, id probably lean pretty conservative. Still looks like its going to be a mess though on Thursday and probably a tough call for schools. But with the sleet and freezing rain forecast i think most will close.

And thats the NAM which is on the colder side of guidance. The ECMWF is significantly warmer. Temps will shoot up briefly pretty much everywhere in CT for a few hours

GFS has been the most consistent, doesn't mean the euro is wrong either. But its kind of on its own with that look. The GFS has support from most of the other models

Clear trend on the GEM. GFS has been pretty consistent with not much change run-run. And id say the Euro for that matter, overall, being the farthest north and warmest