FYI tropical tidbits had a major overhaul last night and now features free ecmwf data in 3 hour intervals and off hour runs and soundings. Some stuff is limited.
6Z RGEM/NAM is a bomb
3K NAM and HRRR almost a whiff but those are in a clown range
matter of fact all the models at this range are in clown range or just bad in general
God shoot me, fx was 12+ for me and i got 3.8. Missed banding, missed banding west. One of the worst busts of all time...not to be outdone by Mar 21st 2018
Fun fact, he rode the Navy model one time on air for Mar 4-6 2001 when it was the only model showing virtually no snow and was progressive. I remember verbatim he said "it just spins up a couple inches and scoots outta here fast"
This storm is not like Jan 16 but the divergence and spread amongst EPS members remind me of that time 24-36 hrs before the event.
And we have a lot longer to go than 24 hours.