The 4 Seasons

Damn, going big, my map def going to be more bearish than that.

tough for our area, anything from 2-12 wouldnt surprise me. It's not a huge change just better for CT esp W areas.

Yep. Much better than 12Z

Euro looks a little better for part 2 on the 18Z run vs. 12Z

I would go with 6-12 for you, wide range to account for variability with round 2 but i think you're a lock for a half a foot at that latitude and elevation.

yeah its 8" for 24hrs but 6" is still 6" regardless of the labels adv or warning. 6 is still a win for Dec 1-2

Maybe, the southern 2/3 probably will be under Warning criteria but youre in the extreme north near the mass boarder. Think youre still good for warning snows.

It's laughing at the state of Connecticut for our high tax/low snowfall inverse relationship. Tought forecast for CT, def low confidence. Front end pretty straight forward, round 2 is a bit of a wild card. Looking to take a peak at 18Z King before map comes out.

gotta save that one, ill remember that face when i end up with <1" of slop

That devil face East of the cape. Thats what youre talking about?

It probably wont but there have been some W-E gradient storms, specifically the analog that i like the best...12-15-02.... where NYC got more than E and NE CT

i always go back and forth on how much weight to give it, its a new model and i just dont know if i believe it one way or the other. It doesn't seem as bad as some of the worst though like NAVGEM/JMA

When does the 18Z Euro come out? Must be like 7pm or so going by when the 12z starts rolling

No, no last resort is an individual EPS member, even with 12 hrs to go, because then you can say "well its the best model and a member of the best model shows X"

oh you switched bodies i see.

NYC gets more than TOL on that 18Z RGEM run, LOL

48-60 lmao.

6Z euro looks better for the 2nd round as the low gets going S LI. Main focus is W areas though.

Yeah, i have a feeling im going to be pretty conservative with this storm, lots of ways this can bust, lead time for rd 2 is still aways away and the analogs aren't impressing me. With the surface low tucked in like that and so close to us its always been a lose-lose, either a huge slot punches up through central and eastern CT or we change over for an extended period and end as snow, seen it in so many storm. NAM looks pretty dry for an extended period around here over H8. I'll look at things more closely and wait till 12z to make a call. 6Z GFS is pretty gross, good thing its the worst.

You dont see this get used to much but i imagine they are going with 24hr totals for this storm, in some places 12 or 24 won't matter. But for CT and surrounding locales probably need the 24 threshold. I still like 12-25-02 for the best fitting analog. Surface track, H5 and H7 are very close throughout the duration. 12-07-03 might be the top analog for the storm at the 72 hour panel but subjectively, 12-25-02 makes more sense to me. Plus the airmass is closer to that storm and no 12-07-03

no doubt, confidence is low given the lead timing. But they did upgrade a lot to warnings where its pretty much guarantted to be 8 and in some places 9" or more snow totals.

NWS not confident enough to turn a lot of those watches over to warnings, not even Litchfield or Worcester yet.

surprise, surprise.

final CT totals vs. FX

March 2nd 2019