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The 4 Seasons

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Everything posted by The 4 Seasons

  1. The 4 Seasons
    Only Nov 15th really, if that counts.
  2. The 4 Seasons
    RPM shit the bed with this storm completely. Barely a couple inches at most for S CT, complete shut out for N and NW CT. Meanwhile RPM seems halfway decent the past couple runs.
  3. The 4 Seasons
    snow99 firing shots. GFS is out on an island with this one. FV3 also looked to tick east a bit, but way better than the OG GFS.
  4. The 4 Seasons
    where have you been, its been like that for years and years.
  5. The 4 Seasons
    anyone know when 18z ECMWF comes out?
  6. The 4 Seasons
    Not a surprise, it was the outlier, even at 12Z. We are just reaching consensus now. The FV3 and GFS now are almost dead nuts.
  7. The 4 Seasons
    HRRR playing with ketchup again, the usual story for that model. Jucier each run.
  8. The 4 Seasons
    How bout dem apples? (it's both combined)
  9. The 4 Seasons
    Advisories now out for the whole state, most list as 2-4 or 2-5 in the BOX area of CT, 3-5 for OKX area.
  10. The 4 Seasons
    what are the stations around here going, i dont know if Ryan updated his map but the one from yesterday 1-3/3-6 looks pretty reasonable right now. Im just starting to look at models, but it seems its been pulled back quite a bit.
  11. The 4 Seasons
    If both of these systems manage to completely screw some area of SNE, say Hamden/North Haven area, there's going to be some epic meltdowns...maybe even suicides.... If they pan out well and im in the 30s for snowfall, id give it a C/C-, they both suck, both misses, an F or D-.
  12. The 4 Seasons
    i didnt mean including, just back towards that way i.e. HPN, DXR, BDR area. NYC and LI def has issues with mixing. All of CT to RI and E MA look fine.
  13. The 4 Seasons
    Going to be totally reversed come the PM shift on Friday, mark my words. They already got slapped in the face by weighting heavily on a POS model, since now it shows warning snows back to NYC and W CT.
  14. The 4 Seasons
    Really? This is where we are going for the AM shift into Friday? I realize confidence is not high, but i expected watches at least for E and SE MA into RI. Not only do they not have that but they have this narrow band of advisories. Models as a whole ramped up and not decreased for the AM shift, but yet they went the other way for snow totals. Not that it will change the outcome, im just pretty surprised at this. They must only be using the FV3 and NAM at 00z, that's the only way this makes sense.
  15. The 4 Seasons
    id be happy with 3-6 and 3-6 tbh.
  16. The 4 Seasons
    If we didn't have the 18z to look at as of recent, we would call this run an improvement and a step in the right direction. But now that we have the 18z to look at its the exact opposite. It's better than 12Z and thats all i really care about at this point, take the 6Z and 18Z runs with a grain of salt.
  17. The 4 Seasons
    For those interested RPM 3Z came in much better again. Swath of 6-8 from SW CT into NE MA. 4-6 on either side of that for the rest of CT.
  18. The 4 Seasons
    we've seen massive model discrepancy closer than 24hrs out. Jan 26th 2015 and march 21st 2018. Every model expect the ec had a Foot+ for sne up until go time on 3/21/18.
  19. The 4 Seasons
    jesus no kidding, surface low looks a bit elongated with the main centered tracking well offshore. Its dropping .75-1.25" for most in CT. Mixing probably in SE CT and coast verbatim.
  20. The 4 Seasons
    BOX grids are updated and map is out looks fair to me.
  21. The 4 Seasons
    The NAM is one hell of a model.
  22. The 4 Seasons
    Loved that storm picked up about a half a foot.
  23. The 4 Seasons
    I would like to see one of these sites do a "max temp in profile" graphic. Like a 0C/-10C etc isotherm from 950-700 or 950 and below. anyways not the thread to discuss this kind of stuff. NWS really should be bumping things up a great deal with the PM shift, i dont see watches coming out but you never know.
  24. The 4 Seasons
    The only storm (at least for CT) that has trended in a positive direction or you could consider a positive bust is Nov 15th. Everything else has gotten worse as we get closer or busted completely.
  25. The 4 Seasons
    This winter all of a sudden got exciting, somehow it will pull the rug from under us, hopefully not this time.
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