The 4 Seasons

Whenever i see a post with a bunch of weenies on it, i just add one it's fun to pig pile like that. Or if a post has a weenie, a wow, a confused, a thanks...ill add a sad just to try to make the whole gamut of emotions Edit: I only see one heart and one weenie....you can do better than that... Edit 2: getting better...one confused, i like those Edit 3: we're gettin close, just need a thanks and a sad...maybe a few more weenies too for the fire Edit 4: A sad face and we've made it Edit 5: We have arrived, i'm so proud of this community.

The HRRR has the 850 0C line just north of the shoreline at 12Z and the RGEM is at the MA boarder, worlds apart.

RGEM is significantly warmer at H85 and is absolutely putrid for snow in CT, almost nothing up to 84. Pretty much all mix from the start.

That map is utterly useless. Unless you want to confuse the public and post them all over social media, it's good for that.

@RU848789 and just as you say that and post an updated map, NWS PHI uses the old criteria for the warnings and issues a Winter Storm Warning for .25" of ice. Maybe they are just fudging it a little bit and going for impacts and combination of 2-4" of snow and .25ice combined, those two alone dont meet warning criteria though. At least not from the map you posted. As i suspected... Although the snow totals and the ice totals individually fall below Warning criteria, believe that the combination of the two will result in Warning level impacts.

New advisories out for OKX, upped snowfall for 2-4" staying conservative with the ice with 0.1-0.2. nothing new from BOX or ALY yet. maps are still old

NAM & 3K NAM GW for S CT with now over 1.00" of ZR. Obviously those numbers are too high for this type of event. Still think up to a half inch is possible though. ill be interested to check out the soundings in bufkit when the 18zs come out.

@weathafella

Well that was just part of what said, I did say it was over amped and too far N, i just threw the thermals in there and prefaced it with the obvious, which clearly was a mistake. It's all good Thats really the main point here

Well the storm hasn't happened yet so i don't think anyone should be counting chickens just yet. With that said, the GFS is not likely to win anything, by a long shot. As will said it was way over amped and thermals were awful as usual. Well have to take a look after its all said and done but what i've seen recently is that the GFS is coming south and cooling off and the EC coming north, just a consensus being reached atm.

Weenie stripe

ah i see, where did you find that, id like to see if there are updates to any other wwa or wsws

@BuildingScienceWx loves ice...damn ice!

Thumpity Thump on the 18Z RPM covers even S CT with 4-6" ill post a map for Jerry when its done

howd you get your hands on that?

Saw people talking about the Ice Storm warnings, here is the criteria. It's 0.5...0.25 farther SW. The Freezing Rain Advisory was discontinued, it'll now be under a Winter Weather Advisory but the Ice Storm Warning is still in use.

Advisories expanded into southern CT down to the shore. Highly doubt we see any warnings though, criteria won't be met on either the snow or ice side of things.

looks like the euro came north a bit, still a mess for ct but it seems like we are reaching consensus now

Go for it, you can start one..though i think you'll be talking to yourself in there

The RPM goes through stages from "if everything breaks right" to "if everything goes to sh!t" and everything in between, i think it's written into the code.

HRRR is pretty damn juicy at the end of the latest few runs. a good 2-4 is looking likely even right down to the shore.

do tell. i haven't looked at anything after 00z tomorrow night

Going big with the ice i see. I am likely bumping up the .1-.3 range to .25-.50, our zones are the same though. My biggest problem though is forecasting the shore, you think they dont see any ice accumulation at all? I dont think itll be as big as inland areas but still have up to a tenth or so..

BUFKIT is showing 12 full hours of ZR for HVN, ranging from .017 to .169/hr usually ranging around .060 per hour for a total of .805. Say we lose 30-40% of that due to run off. That's still .5" of total ice. Precip is on the light side so that will help with accretion. Temps rangning from 27-32F. I don't think a widespread .5-.75 is likely but i think its in the cards, like you said if everything goes right. .25-.50 is not an unreasonable forecast thought for interior S CT. Total snow before the flip is 3.7" on bufkit so well have a solid concrete pack for a while if that pans out.

Those are some high probs on the EPS, though we are really close