The 4 Seasons

Never heard that initialism, probably why he said he's making it up...good guess though prob what it is.

DAA?

Thats why BOX is going 1-4 in their advisory product lol.

May i ask what your signature is on the discussion(if you write them)? I'd be interested in reading them. It's GYX right?

And 6Z looked a bit improved from 00Z to me.

maybe i like anal-frontal...

Living vicariously as a SNEr through this subforum.

Who gets excited for an inch? Except for maybe....nevermind too inappropriate..

Closed for a week? Reminds me, have to stop to get bread and milk today. so i don't die

For timing it makes sense but i have a strong suspicion the roads remain mostly wet, except high elevation areas where mod/heavy snow falls.

The Canada people are coming. Snow or no snow, I am fascinated by this one particularly and see it as a learning experience.

I'm staying the course for now but awaiting the 12Z suite to change anything. 00Z/06Z was ugly. Even Ryan's go-to HREF is filthy, SREFs...although the most bullish atm cut way back....

Here, took 15 seconds!

Well this is becoming an easier and easier forecast. 6Z did not hold serve and cut wayyy back. I'll await the 12Z suite to make an update to the map but may have to give it quite the hair cut...thinking maybe 1-3 SE 84, C-1 NW. But things may get worse. I think models are picking up on the dry air, though i did not look at the 6Z suite closely at all.

LOL 0-0?

RPM says to CT: haha, i gave you 4-6 for several runs a day ago, now you get a big goose egg! Can't say I'm surprised.

Whole state under a WWA, no WSWs...shocking.

I don't like seeing weenie models like the RPM/NAM so bullish and the most reliable model, ECMWF so meager and dry ala March 21st 2018. Doesn't really mean much to me...though still not super confident either. Advisories up for CT for 2-4

It's frustrating to take a deep dive at forecasting because BUFKIT and many sites with soundings only provide them for the GFS/NAM. Both of these models, imo, are inferior to the ECMWF. But the ECMWF i cant see soundings or use points on BUFKIT or even have an EC-MOS type data that i can get with the american models.

Interesting Pivotal weather clown map is higher with 2-3 for much of the state and a small area of 3-4 in interior E CT

This is what makes forecasting fun. We are attempting to predict the future. If models were perfect, how boring would it be? Come Wednesday morning, some will have egg on their face and some won't. One thing i've learned over the years of met school and op forecasting is to not poke fun, laugh at or attack anyone who disagrees with me. It just hasn't happened yet. Over the years i've seen storms that have been forecasted to be 7-14" and end up with 0 and i've seen a chance flurries end up being 6-8".

I'm already at Foxwoods.

I was just taking a guess. hey i got 4/5 right!

I was more thinking along the lines where a fast moving clipper moves just south of LI and enhances 1-3" amounts into 3-6" snows. When you have a good upper air pattern and it's forecast to be an explosive bomb off the delmarva, that's different. Blizzard of 2005 started its life as a clipper.

That's pretty much where am i right now