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Everything posted by audioguy3107

  1. Lastest SREF from the SPC has pretty much all the parameters maxed out over eastern Alabama and north Georgia late tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Plenty of CAPE, LI approaching -9 and the significant tornado parameter values approaching 7. Yikes. It's been a long time since we've seen these values. - Buck
  2. You're right, the difference with this setup, at least for eastern Alabama and Georgia is that it looks like the timing will not be an issue. The thing here is how fast the warm front makes it north and takes the first wave of convection with it. Normally we're all socked in with cool cloud cover until 6 PM or so and by then there's no time for any destablilization to take place, especially if there's any CAD. Depending on what fires tonight is gonna make the difference between a relatively substantial threat vs. a possible high risk day which is pretty rare for our neck of the woods. - Buck
  3. Another thing to watch here in Georgia is not only the speed but also the progression of the mass of storms that are going to fire and move north with the warm front overnight. Some of the hi res models push the convection more to the NE while a couple of models keep the heaviest convection more the the west over central and eastern Alabama. If that scenario plays out and misses a large chunk of Georgia, it would probably set up some outflow boundaries that would be a focal point of any supercells that fire with the main show.
  4. If the warm sector tomorrow is able to survive the overnight storms from the advancing warm front, I wouldn't be surprised if SPC goes with a high risk in their overnight day one outlook tonight/tomorrow. This has real potential, the likes we haven't seen in quite a few years down here. The wording from BHM is concerning and they are very good. - Buck
  5. Hey Matt.....haven't had a chance to check out the NAM.......roughly what time does it have the MCS pushing out of the eastern Alabama, north Georgia area? Usually around here if the cloud cover and destabilization isn't off to a start by 11AM - 1PM, you can forget about any higher end severe event. Hell, I didn't even hear a rumble of thunder today.
  6. Thing to really watch out for tomorrow will be any discrete storms developing along the warm front as those may have the highest potentail for producing tornadoes. Between Monday and Wednesday, this could be the biggest severe threat the SE has seen since April 2011.
  7. Areas in Texas and Louisiana have already been upgraded to a high risk this morning.
  8. You can't help but wonder what the severe weather season will be like as it shapes up here over the next 30 days. We've obviously had persistent warmth with a near steady stream of fairly vigorous system traversing the gulf coast. All it's gonna take in this pattern is for the gulf to open up and we could be looking at a pretty consistent severe weather threat through March as systems start to tap into the building warmth.
  9. I hear ya.....I'm more of a severe weather enthusiast as well, been a member of this forum (back when it was eastern weather) since 2007, but don't post as much as most since all my posts are usually during severe weather outbreaks (of which there have hardly been any major since the spring of 2011). Too bad there aren't more severe weather enthusiasts on here, but I enjoy the winter discussions as well. TWC had some video/pics of the New Orleans tornado, looked to be quite strong. - Buck
  10. Hey Fellas, sorry for the quick off model discussion post......I'm very well familiar with model watching and how the GFS/NAM/EURO plays out within 48 hours here in the southeast, but not familiar with any of the quirks when it comes to forecasting in the NYC metro and we're flying in to LaGuardia early Thursday afternoon. Does this look like a major travel headache (i.e. airport shutdowns/delays) or should we stick to our travel plans? I realize that 4 - 8 inches may be a safe bet up there, but never been during a winter storm.
  11. Just because Dallas is located on I-20 doesn't mean that it's an apples to apples comparison. Weather and storm tracks in the southern plains are totally different and bear no comparison to what happens here in the southeast.
  12. Somewhat surprised they extended the PDS watch this far north here in the Atlanta area. I guess due to the proximity of the low pressure track this evening. We're down here at the Dome for the Falcons game.....may be exciting leaving the game this evening.
  13. I'm trying to remember the last time there was a high risk issued for this part of the SE? Has there been? Back in March 2008 the high risk area extended from central Georgia into southern SC, but having it this far south and east is unusual to say the least. This low pressure and track is crazy. - Buck
  14. It has.....NWS reporting damage near the Perry area......looks like it was near Robins Air Force Base.
  15. Looks like the radar was spot on. A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM EST FOR SOUTHWESTERN TWIGGS AND NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES... At 1232 PM EST, a confirmed tornado was located over Robins Air Force Base, or 12 miles northeast of Perry, moving east at 45 mph.
  16. Even though you're right about the timing (I'll be at the game! Who hoo), I've seen this song and dance in north Georgia too many times to count....unless we get some sun and adequate instability, I wouldn't be too's been almost 6 years (April 2011) since we've had a major severe concern here. The north Georgia storm shield has been alive and well.
  17. Matt - Are those numbers from Forbes at TWC? - Buck
  18. Tornado warning just issued for the LaGrange area moving toward the far southern Atlanta suburbs.....pretty nice rotation showing up as well, wouldn't be surprised if there was a tornado on the ground when this image was current.
  19. I've been paying attention to this setup the last day or two.....FFC and BHM is really highlighting the chances for a potential severe weather outbreak over Alabama and Georgia, especially on Sunday afternoon. The GFS has CAPE in the 1000 - 2200 range nosing into western Georgia with surface temps in the low 70's and no CAD to protect us this time which is a rarity in the heart of winter. LI as high as -5 over parts of the area. If some of the models are correct in showing dryer air punching in from the west giving us clearing on Sat/Sun., this has potential we haven't seen in quite awhile. - Buck
  20. For us in NE Georgia, I'll add that without cold high pressure wedging down the east side of the appalachians, it's virtually impossible to get snow here, topography, warm noses, you name it. Cold air coming in from the NW has a next to impossible time getting over the mountains in time for an impending of the reasons why I never even pay attention to clippers anymore like I did when I was younger. That being said, Imwas really surprised at how bad the models failed us over here, especially with the consistency they showed over such a long period of time. All in all that was pretty much a big cup of fail. - Buck
  21. I was just taking a look at the radars to the west and unless something starts backbuilding in a big hurry, that's gonna be it for us.
  22. Wow, this is pretty tough, I could almost walk west a couple miles and have snow falling, but still rain here at the house. I know it's not over yet but oh what could have been had we a nice wedged high coming down on the east side of the appalachians.
  23. Be patient, annoying waste of QPF, but we should be changing any's snowing over at Sterling on the Lake over there off Spout Springs Rd......almost within walking distance of me.
  24. Moderate to heavy sleet here just west of Buford, GA......snow shouldn't be far behind.......looks like temps are beginning to fall rapidly now across the NE metro Atlanta we go!
  25. Amazing! On my way home, can't be more than 5 minutes from you just south off Hwy 53 and still rain here. Talk about a tight gradient!