paulythegun

The GFS "Includes Sleet" snowmap is about to be EPIC. Will add to this post when it loads. UPDATE: it was NOT epic.

GREAT MOMENTS IN "includes sleet"

What I think would be fascinating is if someone developed a "Pattern Incoming Surety System" (PISS) Index to describe the certainty level associated with the 2 week pattern forecast. A variety of factors would go in the creation of PISS. How many ensembles are in support? What's the spread? Did it just pop up for a couple of model cycles, or hace the runs been dripping in and steadily increasing the flow of confidence as we approach? Less important, but still crucial: how do the higher res mesos compare to the short term ensemble depiction (kind of an initial conditions test). A 5 alarm PISS Index reading would be something like we saw in I believe January of 2016. Amazing pattern trending to locked in storm 10 days out. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Please remember to move your cars

Virga overhead in DC right now.

Accuweather FutureCast summoning demons around 11:50pm Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

The 12z Frog Model looks good for the cities....just gotta hope for high ratios (0.5 inches of snow per millimeter)

While we all wait for the 12z GEOS-5 model to run, here's the 00z GEOS-5 run for comparison.

Today a coalition of DC Snow Enjoyers announced a plan to curtail the down sloping effect by LEVELING THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. In order to preserve cold air damming (when needed), the mountains will be replaced with a retractable CAD wall. We are not asking for public funding for this project. All we ask is for exclusive rights to develop a mixed-use, walkable community atop the Great Appalachian CAD Wall.

The downstream effects of DC Snowcover are mostly felt in sub-Saharan Africa

The first radar hallucinations of the year! Come at me, Ms. Pacman!

Every time these storms miss us to the south, I hope everyone else hears Chris Berman going "WHOOP! WHOOP!!!" like I do