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chubbs

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Posts posted by chubbs

  1. 8 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

     

    Then it's not C02. It doesn't work that way. C02 induced is more of a gradual issue. There maybe other factors that are not understood as of yet, like the massive amount of water vapor produced by Tonga. There's just so much about our climate system we do not understand, as much as we've learned the last century, the field of climatology is relatively young. 

    Huh? Sure the CO2 increase is gradual. The build-up of the earth's energy balance is also gradual as is the increasing heat content of the oceans. However, ENSO makes the global temperature increase look uneven. If you average temperature over 11 years (red line in chart below) most of the enso variability is removed and the temperature increase becomes steady.

    The Tonga volcano has been over-hyped by skeptics like Maue. There are posts in this thread with model results showing modest volcano impacts this year, net cooling in one study. If you are worried about increasing water vapor in the atmosphere, worry about greenhouse gases.  Water vapor added to the atmosphere from GHG induced feedback swamps Tonga water by orders of magnitude (also discussed above).

    The science around climate change is well established and backed-up by a track record of successful prediction. What we are finding out this year is that scientific uncertainty can work both ways, for less warming than expected, or for more. Note on the chart below that in the past decade we are spending more time above the trendline than below. Even a 3-year nina couldn't get much below the trendline That's what Roundy is missing. We spiked up from a temperature that would have been a record before the 2015 nino.

    1880-1920base.png

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  2. 1 hour ago, bluewave said:

    While this spike may very well be temporary, the reason behind it is open to debate. May not be exclusively related to El Niño in a way that we traditionally understand. This El Niño is much weaker than 15-16. El Nino global temperatures typically peak near the end of the event in the late winter like in February 2016. This summer into fall historic spike is going against that previous pattern.
     

     

     

    Yes, what Roundy is missing is that the ocean heat increase during the 3-year nina was an add to the earth's climate system due to the large (and growing) energy imbalance.

    energyimb.PNG

  3. 12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    Humans are an extremely adaptable species. So even if the most severe climate scenarios play out, we will find a way to survive. But other species may not be as fortunate. That being said, most of the carbon emissions are now occurring in places like China. The US has actually slightly decreased emissions. Outside of technological innovations on our part, we don’t have any say in how other countries like China manage their emissions. So while our economies are still depended too on fossil fuels, we need to find innovations to adapt to a warming climate. It’s probably going to be a slow energy transition and my guess is that we are probably on track for at least +2C to +3C of warming since the industrial revolution. And possibly beyond that if we don’t start moving faster to find a technologies to transition between 2030 and 2050.

    Yes I don't think the sky is falling, we just aren't doing as good a job of preparing for the future as we could. US has decoupled economic growth from increasing CO2 emissions and China will too eventually. China has lead the way in solar, driving costs down. When the sun is shining solar is the now the cheapest source of electricity almost everywhere in the world. Looking back a decade ago both climate and energy technology has changed faster than I anticipated. I think we are close to a peak in global fossil fuel use and the move away from fossil fuels could be surprisingly fast if renewable energy and batteries continue to out-compete fossil fuels. Still we are going to end up much warmer than we needed to be.

    • Like 2
  4. 11 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

    Paul Roundy's take on the global spike needs to be here. The sky isn't falling. 

    Please tell us more. The current nino gives us an opportunity to learn. Its going to take a while to unpack all the competing forces. However, the size of this nino spike  is disconcerting because the same factors that amplify enso, water vapor and cloud feedbacks,  also amplify greenhouse gases.  We'll see what the other side of this nino looks like. Doubt we will return to pre-nino global temperatures though. Like 1997 and 2015, this wave has probably taken us into a new stadium.

    • Weenie 1
  5. On 11/11/2023 at 11:59 AM, bdgwx said:

    Hansen's monthly email which was signed off on by some big names came out yesterday. They do not mince words.

    https://mailchi.mp/caa/how-we-know-that-global-warming-is-accelerating-and-that-the-goal-of-the-paris-agreement-is-dead

    Hansen et al. say "Global warming in the pipeline and emissions in the pipeline assure that the goal of the Paris Agreement – to keep global warming well below 2°C – is already dead, if policy is constrained only to emission reductions plus uncertain and unproven CO2 removal methods."

    Damn...not only did they say 1.5 C is in the rearview mirror, but they're now saying 2.0 C is in the rearview mirror as well.

    @TheClimateChanger Your insistence that 2.0 C is already baked in and will occur in the 2030s is looking more and more plausible.

    Hansen et al. say "Global warming of 2°C will be reached by the late 2030s, i.e., within about 15 years."

    CJmPum5.png

    The money chart from the email below. The blue 12-month mean effectively turns the sun up by over 1% in one decade. Given the suns stability that has to be a rare event in the earth's history. Email argues that this is mainly clouds. Hard to tell how much natural variability contributed. We had a hiatus decade, perhaps we are in a surge decade and are near a reversal; or, maybe we flipped a climate switch and there is no turning back. Guessing we will find out quickly as clouds are a fast feedback and natural variability in one direction beyond a decade time scale becomes increasingly unlikely.

    absorbed solar.png

  6. 40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    Yeah, Euro forecasting a new record also.

     

     

    There are model differences, with GFS forecasting a higher peak relative to the September max vs the euro. For another viewpoint here is year-to-date in one re-analysis product. We'll see how high we get and for how long.

    d1-gfs-gta-daily-2023-11-09.gif

  7. Big mechanism for warming global temps during an el nino is increased water vapor in atmosphere primarily from tropical oceans. Note that this added water swamps water from HT volcano as stratosphere is only 1% of atmospheric water. Any HT water in troposphere is long gone as lifetime is only a couple of weeks at best.

     

    Screenshot 2023-11-09 at 04-57-53 Jeff Berardelli on X.png

    • Like 1
  8. 10 hours ago, csnavywx said:

    Hansen not the only one sniffing out higher ECS. @bluewave @chubbs @bdgwx  Timestamped for the appropriate part of the talk.

     

    Interesting, shows we need to consider aerosols as well as CO2 in understanding man-made climate change, particularly short-term trends which may not have much staying power, if aerosol driven. One quick thought: aerosols apparently contributed to WPac warming and increased frequency of Modoki ninos and perhaps helped our winter snow.

    • Like 1
  9. 18 hours ago, bdgwx said:

    And as of this morning it is official. Hansen et al. 2023 was formally accepted for publication.

    Why is this a big deal?

    1) It is a sobering prediction of what may happen.

    2) The authors (and there are big names in this list) take an adversarial tone toward the IPCC by indicting them of reticence and gradualism.

    Official: https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889?login=false

    News: https://www.eenews.net/articles/james-hansen-is-back-with-another-dire-climate-warning/

     

    Will take a while to sort out the ramifications of this years temperature spike. A spike is unsettling when there is uncertainty  about climate sensitivity.  We are running a big science experiment.

    Screenshot 2023-11-03 at 07-05-39 Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) _ X.png

    • Like 2
    • Weenie 1
  10. 8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Curious about the difference between the antarctic “heat wave” wrt the rest of the planet. Another words removing that weird winter they had down there.

    Probably not a lot. So much of this energy surplus has to be coming from that oceanic sst spike everywhere, all seas in every direction all latitudes north and south atmosphere included. Water holds more energy than air etc. etc..

    The fact that the whole planet just up and started glowing all at once, from the Antarctic to the sea south of the Aluetians to the north Atlantic to the Indian Ocean …all of it… strikes me as a real phenomenon that needs to be investigated. That really needs to be understood possibly as an imperative. It’s just the “fuzzy logic” of warming over the south polar region happening in tandem with all these other regions that don’t directly effect one another.  Really is tremendous fertility for science-fiction thinking … But strikes me as at a minimum, there might be something that interconnects the whole planet, lesser known geophysics - perhaps in the synergistic space - that can be triggered

     

    By far the biggest change between this year and last year is enso. Per chart below, the timing of the GISS warming also matches enso with a slight lag. As I posted upthread this nino packs an extra punch due to the strong far E Pac warming.

    ensogiss.PNG

  11. 11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

    I'm pretty convinced that the OLR is screwed up because of the extra moisture / cloudiness around globally from the volcano.

    I'm 6'3" and my clothes are designed to fit my physique. Imagine if I woke up tomorrow and I was 7'2" and I had to come up with an outfit from my wardrobe. Now imagine that only my legs got longer and the rest of me remained the same.

    OLR and a lot of the other variables are based on historical averages that are incoherent at the moment. Especially since the +15% extra water vapor globally isn't distributed evenly across all zones.

    Imagine if the moisture content was distributed like this:

    NW: X---> 0.85x

    NE:  X-----> 1.50x

    SW: X --------> 1.15x

    SE: X-------------> 1.1x

    That's a 15% net increase from 4x to 4.6x where x is the 30-year water content in each zone. 

    The water from the volcano went into the stratosphere not the troposphere. Plus the lifetime of water vapor in the troposphere is much shorter than the stratosphere, on the order of a week or two. Any water from the volcano that went into the troposphere is long gone. Increased water in the troposphere this year vs last year is a feedback to increased ocean and atmospheric temperatures.

    In the long-term, increased water vapor in the atmosphere from global warming swamps the volcano. The cold stratosphere can't hold much water. 99% of atmospheric water vapor is in the troposphere which now holds roughly 10% more water due to global warming ( 1.3C x 7% more water per degree warming).

     

  12. 20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

    I doubt that NYC will have a frost-free winter through the current century absent some anomalous event that amplifies climate change.  There will likely be more winters where the coldest temperature stays in the 20s. I also think that by the mid-2030s, the 30-year average snowfall at Central Park will fall toward or perhaps below 20" based on the rising temperatures and warming oceans.

    Until recently, New York City's decadal mean winter temperatures had been running below the RCP 4.5 projections. The decadal extremes (coldest and warmest winters for the 10-year period in question) fell within the modeled projections. Recently, the decadal winter averages have been running somewhat warmer than the RCP 4.5 projections. All in all, the climate model projections have been reasonably skillful.

    image.png.1e17fd586fe31e0235443b25492f301d.png

    Yes a long way from frost free; but for winter temperature Boston has become New York and New York is well on the way to Richmond.

                           1951-1980    2014-2023        

    Boston                 31.7               33.7

    New York CTP    33.8               37.1

    Richmond  Apt   38.4                41.9

    • Like 3
  13. On 9/28/2023 at 3:46 PM, bdgwx said:

    The July EEI from CERES is in. The 12 month average stands at +1.97 W/m2 while the 36 month average is stands at +1.48 W/m2. 

    Theoretically as the planet warms the EEI drops assuming no further increase in radiative force anyway. Yet the EEI marches higher.  

    VwKeqeb.png

    One factor that could help explain the recent rise in TOA flux and this years temperature spike is underestimation of aerosol cooling impacts. There is a wide uncertainty band for aerosol cooling. Could be that aerosols impacts are in the upper portion of the band and have been suppressing GHG warming to a greater extent than expected. Most of the recent TOA flux increase is increased solar radiation hitting the surface consistent with reduced aerosol impact. Now that aerosol emissions are decreasing, GHG warming is realized to a greater extent  and TOA flux and temperature are responding. We will need to see an updated scientific assessment to be sure.

    • Like 1
  14. 55 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

    We discussed the Hunga Tonga eruption a few pages back. I found peer reviewed publications concerning the topic. You can find them in this post.

    The consensus is that the eruption won't likely have much of impact on the global average temperature though it may have a significant impact regionally.

    And to be pedantic the 10% figure is the increase in stratospheric water vapor. The actual amount is only 150 MtH2O which isn't even a blip compared to how much is in the entire atmosphere. It's just that stratosphere is dry (a few ppm of H2O) and thin (~20% of the total air mass) so there actually isn't very much water vapor up there to begin with. It is important to point that while there isn't much up there its effects are quite different as compared to the troposphere.

    Here's a Youtube of a recent hour long seminar on Hunga Tonga. The climate part starts at the 40 minute mark. tl:dr - the net impact is a very small cooling as aerosol effects balance water vapor.

     

    • Like 1
  15. 3 hours ago, bdgwx said:

    In the UAH dataset 2023/09 broke the all time record by 0.20 C and broke the previous September record by 0.45 C. 

    And since UAH lags ENSO by 4-5 months it is more likely than not that this is not yet the peak. In fact, we are only just barely seeing the El Nino response right now since the 4 and 5 month lagged ONI values are 0.5 and 0.2 respectively.

    ZKMQIf7.jpg

    Wow. Way above recent mod+ nino Septembers:

    Sept 1997:  -0.11

    Sept. 2002: 0.04

    Sept 2009:  0.10

    Sept 2015:  0.09

    • Like 1
  16. 14 hours ago, bdgwx said:

    The July EEI from CERES is in. The 12 month average stands at +1.97 W/m2 while the 36 month average is stands at +1.48 W/m2. 

    Theoretically as the planet warms the EEI drops assuming no further increase in radiative force anyway. Yet the EEI marches higher.  

    VwKeqeb.png

    Interesting to look at the differences between ninos in chart above. 2009/10 had a large drop in TOA flux while 15/16 had a small increase. Hopefully we get a good explanation for this years TOA Flux and temperature spikes.

    A couple of reasons why TOA flux wouldn't neccessarily track surface temperature: 1) Radiation leaves the earth from the upper troposphere. If the atmosphere is stable, surface warming may not increase outgoing radiation much. This enso is east-based and the east Pacific has cooler waters and a stable atmosphere; 2) Positive feedbacks kick-in with warming, increased water vapor and decreased low-level clouds. Again low-level cloud effects are maximized in E Pac.

  17. 7 hours ago, bdgwx said:

    This bout of warming has been so extreme that I think even high end warming supporters (like Hansen) have to be scratching their heads at this point.

    September has a good shot at breaking the GISS anomaly record of 1.37 set in Feb 2016.  Sept 2015 was "only" 0.85 on GISS. Most of the nino warming was still to come at this point of the 2015/16 cycle.

     

    d4-gfs-gta-daily-2014-2023-09-25.gif

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