chubbs

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Using @TheClimateChanger's inspirational mapping work using AI, I ran a map for Colorado. As noted on numerous occasions regarding Denver, summers have grown hotter with the frequency of 90° days increasing dramatically.

 

Mean Number of 90° or Above Highs Each Year:
1872-1999: 27.6 days
2000-2025: 50.7 days
2000-2026: 51.2 days (64 days in 2026 through September 10; mean summer 2026 high: 90.4°)

Is the rising heat largely confined to Denver or are summers warming across Colorado? Here's how Colorado's most recent 30-years (1997-2026) compare with the preceding 30-year period. The data show that some of the mountainous regions have seen more rapid summer warming than Denver. In sum, Denver's rising heat is part of a larger story of ongoing climate change.

"The long-duration warmth in Colorado continued in August 2026, which was the hottest August on record statewide. The entire state was warmer than average, and the Front Range, mountains, and western slope all had their warmest August on record. It was the third record-breaking month of 2026 so far, with February and March also being the warmest on record. It was the 15th consecutive month of above-average temperatures in Colorado"

https://climate.colostate.edu/monthly_summary.html

Here' the past 30 days temperature data for the Everest Base Camp. All days are above freezing, reaching as warm as 10C. Temperatures below freezing have been rare in the past month. Even Camp 2 at 6464m has been above freezing most days. It took me a few seconds to google up this data.  

https://scidata.appstate.edu/everest/

A post-collapse picture of the Nepal avalanche site shows multiple meltwater streams from the glacier remains. Including those clearly sourced from cooler elevations above the collapsed zone. Further supporting the above freezing temperature estimates for the site. 

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I may be referring to a different article. I was citing a ClimateBrink piece by Zeke Hausfather, which didn't mention bias correction.

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/what-we-can-and-cannot-say-about

 

That chart is roughly 5C higher than the one I posted, 8C vs 3C for 2026 for instance. The 5C difference makes sense given the 900m difference in the elevation basis of the estimates. 

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's where I think the issue lies. The graph is based on where the collapsing rock/glacier hit the valley (around 4,300 meters above sea level). The bedrock, glacier was about 5,200 meters. So, the graph is correct in that the region has been warming, but it is not the mean temperature of the actual glacier. Nevertheless, preceding the collapse, temperatures had reached 90° or above in Kathmandu. At standard lapse rates, that would suggest readings in the middle 40s at the altitude of the glacier. During the June 1-August 25 period, Kathmandu had 77 days with highs of 80° or above. At standard lapse rates, that would amount to highs of 35° or above at 5,200 meters. So, at least using the standard lapse rates and Kathmandu's data, most of the summer days saw at least some melting where the collapse took place.

The graph says the temperatures were estimated with ERA re-analysis bias corrected to 5200 feet using regional high elevation weather stations.  

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks. But this graph has avg for entire summer well over 0C? This is far warmer than what Chris Martz was suggesting about the site of the collapse (i.e., only occasionally reaching to barely above freezing), isn’t it?

The temperature chart is consistent with the pictures of the collapse site, posted above, which show evidence of both short and long-term melting. The glacier itself is a remnant of a much larger glacier. The info I posted above also shows that local glacier losses have accelerated since 2000.  I don't see evidence that the cooler and distant Everest site is relevant. 

Robert Rhode has estimated temperatures near the Nepal collapse site at 5200 meters using ERA and local temperature data. Below are several quotes and graphs from his Blue Sky thread. 

The collapsed glacier site was historically not far from the melting threshold in summer with only a short period of summer melting expected. Unfortunately, global warming has greatly expanded the duration and intensity of summer melt in this region at 5200m elevation.

Summer 2026 is estimated to have been 4th warmest on record for this Nepali glacier, behind 2024, 2025, and 2022. In addition, the collapse occurred at the end of a 6-day heatwave that featured several of the warmest August days on record.

https://bsky.app/profile/rarohde.bsky.social/post/3muom4fol422p

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 
 Thanks for your reply, John. I’m asking anyone but tagged Don only because he’s been about the most involved with me in the discussion about the Nepal disaster and thus wanted to make sure he sees this.

 Martz appears to be correct in saying that there aren’t going to be many days that go >0C based on my just now seeing what’s down below that I’m quoting from the link below. If ~+1C really is the warmest at 5,364 m or 17.6K feet, is there going to be significant melting way up that high?

https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-highest-and-lowest-temperatures-ever-recorded-at-Mt-Everest-base-camp

“Highest and lowest recorded temperatures at Everest Base Camp (EBC) depend on which camp and which dataset, but reliable observations come from automatic weather stations (AWS) installed at the South Base Camp (Nepal side, ~5,364 m) and other nearby high-altitude stations.

Summary of best-available values (observations and published AWS records, through May 2024):

• Highest recorded air temperature
  • South (Nepal) Base Camp AWS: about −1.0 °C to +1.0 °C on the warmest days in late spring/early summer (typically May). Many published station summaries and expedition logs report peak values near 0 °C; a commonly cited peak is ~+0.5 °C. Slightly warmer spot measurements in sunlight or lower-elevation tent sites can exceed +1 °C briefly, but sustained, instrumented air-temperature peaks at the official South Base Camp are around 0 °C to +1 °C.”

Martz isn't an expert on glaciers, geology or Nepal. Pictures of the area in question from the blog I linked above show evidence of melting: 1) The glacier has shrunk quite a bit since 2017 and 2) the glacier isn't the pristine white of unmelted snow. 

The storymap that I also linked contains the following paragraph about local temperatures: 

Temperature data from nearby climate stations installed by University of Potsdam show the region has been very warm in the past weeks and months. In addition to the high temperatures across the network, station NPA6 (located approximately 20km from the source area, at 85.28567°N, 28.23455°E) shows rapid temperature increases in the morning in the three days prior to the event, which aligns with the timing of failure (8.37AM Nepal time). These quick temperature swings are a key driver for frost cracking and glacial instability. Bodo Bookhagen (Professor at Uni-Potsdam, Germany) notes that these rapid temperature swings are not evident in the other network sites, indicating this was likely a local event. 

Let me be clear though, its too early to say whether this event was climate related. That's an expert call. 

UAH warmed in August. Expect similar jumps in other August metrics.  

9 hours ago, Chinook said:

I have never seen this type of real-time analysis map be +1.0 degrees C

I've been tracking since 2023. Over 1C daily is very warm but it has happened before mainly in the 23/24 nino. 1.04C in Nov 2023 is the highest monthly value. August was 0.942 the 5'th highest monthly value , the higher values were the last 4 months of 2023. Note that changes to the gfs model may change the metric.  

Storymap on the Nepal floods by the Center for Land for Land Surface Hazards with detailed information from flood gauges, seismic, paleo, etc. The story book is updated as new information becomes available. A couple of quotes from the storymap below. The first quote indicates the flood water came mainly from the slide materials i.e, this material was warm/partially melted. The second quote shows how unusual this event was in area impacted.

"However, more recent seismic analysis of the event as well as detailed reconstruction of flood downstream arrival timing (see above) suggests that damming and release of lake water did not likely contribute significantly to this event because the timing of the initial failure (i.e. the ice-rock avalanche) from seismic records is only seven minutes before the arrival of the flood waters in the nearby community of Gyirong, which is not enough time to have constructed a significant lake in the highland region. Instead, melting of ice and frozen sediment/rock in the initial debris flow and avalanche runout has been attributed to the initiation of the flood."

 In a 2020 study , Huber and others determined boulder-emplacement timing and estimated paleo-flood magnitudes based on boulder size. They show that most boulders in the Trishuli and Sunkoshi were last mobilized and came to rest about 5000 years ago in flood events that far exceed typical monsoon discharges by one to two orders of magnitude.  Images  and  videos from this Trishuli flood  suggest this was a larger event, moving larger boulders than the flood event that impacted the valley ~5000 years ago

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/f2b2425eac544929a7d18f4c90b41d66

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I just watched Joe Bastardi’s free to the public Saturday Summary. He says the Nepal disaster has nothing to do with CC. Why?

-He says that there has been no net change in temperature in Nepal in 400 years!

-He shows a summer temp. anomaly map that has blue colors all over Tibet  including the Tibet-Nepal border.

 So, I’d like to know whether or not these two things are true. Anyone know?

@donsutherland1

BS, its well known that glaciers around the world are shrinking rapidly due to climate change. The Himalayas are no exception.  The increasing local risk from glacier melting was described as a "crisis" earlier this year:

https://www.icimod.org/press-releases/hindu-kush-himalaya-glaciers-losing-ice-at-double-the-rate-since-2000-new-icimod-report-confirm/

Kathmandu, 18 March 2026 – Glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) are melting at an accelerating rate, with ice loss rates doubling since the year 2000, according to two new landmark reports that will be released on 21 March 2026 by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to mark World Day for Glaciers.

The reports, Changing Dynamics of Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region from 1990 to 2020 and HKH Glacier Outlook 2026: Insights from 50 Years of Himalayan Glacier Monitoring, provide the most comprehensive evidence yet of glacier change in the region. They reveal a total loss of up to 27 metres of ice thickness since 1975, sounding an alarm for the nearly two billion people downstream who depend on meltwater from the ‘Water Towers of Asia’.

“This isn’t a distant problem; it’s a crisis unfolding in real-time, with new disasters every summer and monsoon. The fact that ice loss rates have doubled this century should shock us all into action,” said Pema Gyamtsho, Director General of ICIMOD. “The Hindu Kush Himalaya is at a crossroads. The rapidly escalating impacts we’re seeing from water uncertainty to catastrophic floods underscore that we are in a critical decade for the cryosphere. We must scale up monitoring and invest in adaptation now. These aren’t blind spots becoming surprises anymore; they are our new reality.”

On 8/29/2026 at 6:24 AM, bluewave said:

The current record breaking +1.81° is well ahead of what any of the models were forecasting for this month.

 

 

I estimate 1.77C is needed to break a record this year vs Jacobson's 1.84. In any case August's warmth has made a record likely this year and put 2023's gobsmacking September of 1.74C in play. Sept 2023 is still the highest ERA monthly anomaly.

“We don’t see a time in the past where El Niños have been as strong as today, and we show that the strength of El Niño changes in parallel with the warming of global temperature,” said lead author Julia Cole, professor and chair of the U-M Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences. “Our findings tell us that the big El Niño events of the last 40 years are not normal in the context of the last thousand years.”

https://news.umich.edu/el-ninos-more-intense-over-last-40-years-than-previous-1000-according-to-u-m-study/

Blog article on the Nepal floods by a glaciologist providing background and recent history of the area impacted.

https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/2026/08/august-2026-nepal-tibet-floods/

Satellite OISST (through August) has risen to a new peak, 0.08C warmer than the previous peak in September 2023. So far, the nino spike this year is very similar in magnitude to the 2023 spike. Both larger and faster than previous El Nino.

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Climate Reanalyzer has us currently warmer than any other august, ever ...

Not sure what-how to reconcile these two products - I'll leave that y'all... but it looks like it confirms that idea about Aug.  Not sure about 'all months' tho - this below looks like the current month is running along 2nd in that scope. As an aside, also defiant of the fact that all years are typically descending by now. zoink

Fwiw, this product includes 1940 - 2026/present

The chart I posted shows temperature anomaly, while your chart shows temperature. August will rank a little higher on a temperature basis than it will on an anomaly basis because August is a relatively warm month.

The rise in global temperature anomalies that began in June continues through the end of August in this gfs-based forecast.  August will easily break the previous August record and is tracking as the fourth highest monthly anomaly in any month on this metric, fifth highest on ERA. End of the month readings are near the peak monthly value for this metric, 1.04 in November 2023. Note that anomalies are usually highest in the colder months. We'll see what September brings.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

Here's Zeke H latest forecasts (updated daily). An August record is almost guaranteed, while a record for 2026 is currently a coin flip. Monthly and yearly record odds have both been increasing as the month continues to run warm. 

https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Joe Bastardi brings something up that I think merits further study. The contrast in temps between the tropics and Arctic has dropped significantly since 1999 because the Arctic has warmed ~2C while the tropics have warmed significantly less. GW has been most concentrated in the Arctic.

“A reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient lowers zonal available potential energy (ZAPE) and surface baroclinicity. Baroclinic instability is the primary energy source for extratropical cyclones (the large-scale mid-latitude storms that form along the jet stream and frontal zones). With less available energy to draw from:

• Models (including coordinated experiments focused on Arctic sea-ice loss and amplification) generally show fewer individual cyclones each season across the northern mid-latitudes and Arctic.
• The remaining storms tend to be, on average, somewhat weaker, slower-moving, and longer-lived.”

Individual events can still be intense or produce more extreme rainfall because of thermodynamic changes.

Because of the distortion of warming, it leads to some things opposite of what is portrayed in the general sense.

Your point is that this differential warming can produce effects that run counter to the simple ‘warmer world = more of everything extreme’ narrative, especially for baroclinic storm frequency and intensity. The thought experiment cleanly highlights how the pattern of warming, not just global-mean temperature, controls the dynamical response.”

 

This isn't a new thought, scientists have been looking for weather impacts from accelerated warming in the arctic for a while. One hypothesis is a weaker, wavier jetstream, amplifying and slowing the progression of weather patterns. As far as I am aware this hasn't been proven with studies on both sides. Not aware of any findings on baroclinic storms either. Note that increased moisture compensates for weaker temperature gradients in baroclinic storms through increased heat release from condensation in clouds. One weather effect that has been found is a northward shift in the jet stream and storm track.

On 8/17/2026 at 11:11 AM, bluewave said:

 

 

Climatologist49

 

@climatologist49.bsky.social

 

Follow

The first 14 days of August have blasted through the previous record for the Aug 1-14 period globally. 

 

 

 

In El Nino mode.  2026 started #5 in GISS in Jan and Feb, but reached #1 in July. August on track to easily top 2024. Can expect monthly records well into until 2027. The one exception is Sept, the "gobsmacking" warmth of 2023 will be tough to beat. 

This study provides an estimate of transient climate response (TCR) using CERES net radiation estimates and updates temperature-based estimates through 2025. The new TCR estimates for temperature are a little higher than previous studies (orange bars) and the CERES TCR estimates (red bars) are higher still, inline with TCR estimated with the warmer CMIP6 models. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2026EF008356

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Per the following reliable and objective source, year 2026 as of week 32 has had the lowest area burnt in North America since 2012 by a good margin vs other years as of the same week (by a third). Also, globally it has been by a large margin the lowest for this point in the year since 2012 as I’ve been posting despite being near the warmest globally along with 2025 being 2nd lowest. My point in posting about 2026 for N.A. and 2026/5 globally is not to say CC is causing a decrease in wildfire activity because I’m not saying that. Instead, my point in posting this is to show that that there isn’t a proven simple relationship between CC and wildfire related activity and that different kinds of wildfire related data from various sources from various periods can be presented in various ways:
 

I don't think area burned is telling you much about CC; because, other human factors are driving the long-term trends. Per Our World in Data, the vast majority of wildfires occur in grassland and savanna in the sub-tropics and tropics, roughly 50% in Africa. Forest burning is a small portion of area burned in all regions. Our World in Data cites  a Science paper that attributes the long-term decrease in area burned to the spread and intensification of agriculture. In Europe and North America, reduction in cropland burned is another important long-term trend.

Have to look at other stats to see the effect of climate change. The blog I linked makes the point that the intensity of the largest fires is increasing due to climate change. Big, intense fires are the most problematic but aren't well captured by the area burned stats. Here's a recent paper that finds that a small number of extreme fires are having an out-sized impact on the forest ecosystem in western and boreal North America.

https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.aeg5802

Blog on wildfire smoke in the US. There's been an increase in smoky years since the late 2010s. 

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/smoke-gets-in-your-eyes

49 minutes ago, Mike Cycle said:

AI can do that easily.  I will put it to work.  Should we look at daily, monthly, or annual?  Tavg, or Tmin and Tmax?

I would look at Tavg, annual and monthly, to start.