chubbs
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Posts posted by chubbs
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"There was a watershed moment for Australian energy transition this week as the Australian Energy Market Operator released its energy dynamics report for the December quarter of 2025: Renewables comprised more than half of energy supply in the quarter, driving down wholesale electricity prices by nearly half. Coal-fired generation was down 4.6% year on year, falling to an all-time quarterly low. Gas-fired generation plunged 27% to its lowest level for 25 years."
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10 hours ago, ChescoWx said:
Because as the chart clearly shows they are of course not warming at the same rate....PHL is exceeding as you would expect the warming at what we would expect at a non-UHI site.
You are either ignoring the evidence I posted or don't understand it. Lets make it simple. Here is the Avondale USCRN station, carefully chosen with 3 identical thermometers. Since its start-up in 2007, Avondale has warmed at .125F per year or 1.25F per decade. Over the same period, PHL has warmed by .113F per year or 1.13 per decade. The same numbers are in the table I posted. The table shows similar results for the 12 DEOS stations, KMQS, Phoenixville, etc. All warming at a similar rate as PHL. Clear and overwhelming evidence that Chester county is warming at the same rate as the Philadelphia Airport. The raw data doesn't support the point you are making.
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8 hours ago, ChescoWx said:
So my climate pair....one of these things is not warming like the other....wonder why?
Why are the cooling rates in your chart different? Your own faulty analysis. Comparing the raw data at individual Chester County sites to the Philadelphia Airport shows very good agreement in warming rates; i.e, the Philadelphia airport is warming at the same rate as Chester County. Well known that averaging over a changing network skews the data. If the station network cools with time then a simple average of the changing network will underestimate warming. That's exactly what is happening in your charts.
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21 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:
In general China is doubling-up their energy production - new fossil plants *and* new renewable (and nuclear) - because they can afford to. They can afford to because they pay their workers roughly 1/3 what US workers are paid, and because they generally don't worry about NIMBY or environmental impact like we do here in the US; e.g. their Medog Hydro project in Tibet. The US hasn't built a significant new dam in 50 years, let alone one close to the size of Medog or Three Gorges. (by comparison our largest - Grand Coulee - is about 1/8 the size of Medog and 1/3 the size of Three Gorges).
It's not some kind of anti-renewable / pro=fossil policy that's holding back the US - it's a combination of higher regulation and environmental protection, NIMBYism, the fact that China is less prosperous than the US, and also simple geography.
We aren't helping ourselves by adopting anti-renewable/EV policies. These technologies are still coming to the US, but at a slower pace than they would have.
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NOAA ocean heat content surged last year. Agrees with other ocean heat datasets for 2025 posted above. Another sign of accelerating warming since the hiatus ended.
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9 hours ago, FPizz said:
Like he doesnt lol
China has more coal capacity under construction than the entire existing US coal fleet (~230 GW vs ~175 GW). But yeah, let be like them! Dolts
You aren't looking at the whole energy picture. China's use of existing coal plants is dropping. The next few years will tell the tale. Which will slow first in China, new coal or renewable construction? In any case China's energy strategy is much more realistic than ours. They have less fossil fuel and renewable resources than we do, yet their energy is abundant and cheap. We are in energy denial, betting on a horse that is falling further and further behind every day.
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14 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:
So I've been working on a new concept I call "climate analog pairs" and basically it looks to pair a location's current climate with a late 20th century climate of another location hundreds of miles south. I actually think it's more intuitive going in the opposite direction. As a millennial, you may want to determine where you can locate the climate of your childhood. Unfortunately, it's no longer going to be in your hometown but rather hundreds of miles north of your hometown. I think this is a better way of looking at climate change - rather than saying its warmed a couple of degrees, one could say instead it's warmed so much that the local climate has been replaced with the late 20th century climate conditions 200 miles south of here. Here's the thread where I explain the concept and then address a couple of anticipated objections.
Any thoughts?
hEREHere's a comparison for the east coast, Philadelphia and Richmond, roughly the same distance and direction as Detroit/Dayton. Using the regression line, the Philly Airport is as warm today as the Richmond Airport was in the late 1970s, 58F. I like using the regression line because that is the best estimate of the temperature one would expect in any year based on past temperatures.
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11 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:
So I've been working on a new concept I call "climate analog pairs" and basically it looks to pair a location's current climate with a late 20th century climate of another location hundreds of miles south. I actually think it's more intuitive going in the opposite direction. As a millennial, you may want to determine where you can locate the climate of your childhood. Unfortunately, it's no longer going to be in your hometown but rather hundreds of miles north of your hometown. I think this is a better way of looking at climate change - rather than saying its warmed a couple of degrees, one could say instead it's warmed so much that the local climate has been replaced with the late 20th century climate conditions 200 miles south of here. Here's the thread where I explain the concept and then address a couple of anticipated objections.
Any thoughts?
Here's a study from a few years back with a similar goal. How far will my climate shift in the future?
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190212120044.htm
https://www.umces.edu/futureurbanclimates
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:
A chart from the technical paper shows that the rate of ocean warming is increasing. Note that data is from a number of sources including satellite net radiation measurements.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-026-5876-0
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54 minutes ago, bluewave said:The average water level measured at Virginia Key (near #Miami) set a new monthly record high in October, which is also the new *all-time* record high month. I also feel confident that it was the highest monthly water level there since the last interglacial period... ~120,000 years ago.ALTALT8:12 AM · Nov 2, 2025Everybody can
Sea level rise is accelerating along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Here are Savannah and Cape May for instance. Data available at link below.
https://psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/395.php
Savannah
Cape May
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1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:
Request - whenever providing data like this, please provide a link to the source.
http://www.ocean.iap.ac.cn/pages/dataService/dataService.html?languageType=en&navAnchor=dataService
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Large increase in 0-2000m ocean heat content last year. NOAA data through mid-year also shows a large increase.
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42 minutes ago, bluewave said:
While numerous locations in the U.S. experienced their warmest December on record, spots like Fairbanks had their 8th coldest December. So the magnitudes of the warmth was greater in the the West. But Juneau was able to record their 2nd coldest December which was very impressive. Parts of Canada had their coldest December since 1980 but the coldest winters on record occurred in the colder era before then. But the warmth in recent winters in Canada was of a higher magnitude than the cold this month was.
Fairbanks, AK, finishes December 2025 with a monthly temperature departure of 18.2F below normal. The average high temp was -14.5F and the average low temp was -31.1F. This makes it the 8th coldest December on record (1904-present) and the coldest since 1980. @alaskawx.bsky.social9:02 PM · Dec 31, 2025Yes impressive cold in Alaska and Yukon. Cool here in Philly also. Our coolest December since 2010.
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On 12/31/2025 at 7:49 AM, bluewave said:
Record low sea ice thickness this year near the North Pole due to how much warmer than normal it has been there.
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
PIOMASS volume growth has been slow this freezing season, ending 2025 at record low levels. The second low is 12/31/2016, which is hidden under the 2025 line.
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1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:
Not yet.
Sorry - could not let that slide.
"Performance" is a multifaceted thing, including speed, driving distance, fueling convenience, costs, build quality, etc. etc. If the performance of the average EV and the average combustion vehicle in the US (what most of us care about) matched, their sales would be roughly equal, but they very much aren't; even before the recent subsidy removal.
Yes I know what performance is. All the things you mention and more will improve significantly with solid state batteries. The US market doesn't tell you much about EV performance because the best EVs come from China, not the US, and those vehicles are excluded from the US market. However this new announcement may allow other countries to catch-up or even leapfrog China. We will see.
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33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:
La nina being basically dead does not mean it's not going to torch. In fact, the last time a la nina dissipated (in 2023), January and February absolutely torched in the East.
Remember, the East has been in a cool pattern since August. We are due for a well above average temperature departure month.
The subsurface temperature distribution in the Pacific is similar to 2023, but the surface is different. Relative warmth is more west-based this year.
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A Finnish start-up has introduced the first commercial solid-state battery: light-weight, durable, fast charging, and inexpensive. If product claims pan out, EV performance, which is already matching combustion vehicles, will improve dramatically.
https://insideevs.com/news/783380/first-production-ready-all-solid-state-battery-official-specs/
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17 hours ago, WolfStock1 said:
Weather vs Climate.
When looking at climate looking at single month, or even a single year, is meaningless - it's noise. You have to look at multi-year or even multi-decade averages to determine what's really going on.
Agree. A global temperature average with an 11-year running mean takes out almost all the variability due to: weather, enso, solar, and volcanoes.
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Hunga Tonga volcano assessment report is out. Large effect on stratosphere but relatively small effect at surface:
Professor Maycock said, "The Report shows that although water vapor is a greenhouse gas, Hunga had a net cooling effect overall and did not cause the record level of global warming observed in 2023 and 2024. This is a very important finding as understanding what caused the recent surge in global warming is a priority for the climate science community."
https://phys.org/news/2025-12-international-reveals-atmospheric-impact-hunga.html
https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1049154/files/Hunga_APARC_Report_full.pdf?version=1
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Pacific upwelling much faster at the equator than scientists thought
“It turns out that equatorial upwelling in the Pacific is about 10 times faster than we previously thought,” Karnauskas said. “And this could be really important because that water rising toward the surface in the Pacific covers a huge fraction of the ocean surface, and it affects things like temperature and nutrients needed for photosynthesis.”
His work, published today in the Journal of Climate, reveals the faster rate of upwelling and determines why older estimates were off. Karnauskas combed through old observations and analyzed vast amounts of new data from state-of-the-art measurement tools to get a more accurate estimate.
The findings point to a key discrepancy in global climate models, which currently predict significant warming along the equator in the Pacific. This new rate may help researchers understand why they have struggled to capture key climate trends in the region.
https://cires.colorado.edu/news/pacific-upwelling-much-faster-equator-scientists-thought
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/38/16/JCLI-D-24-0704.1.xml
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China has shown that it is possible to ramp solar very quickly. The main constraint is factories not resources in the ground like fossil fuels. With batteries dropping rapidly in cost, the addressable market for solar has expanded significantly. The ability to cost-effectively replace fossil fuels at scale has suddenly developed.
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4 hours ago, frontranger8 said:
Nature Retracts Study Predicting Catastrophic Climate Toll - The New York Times https://share.google/xRSyFAwbx54BMddiW
Below are a press release and a Q+A on the retracted paper. The problems with the original paper have been addressed and a new paper has been submitted.
How do the results in the corrected version compare to the original:
"The revisions did not significantly alter the central estimates, but did increase the uncertainty range they sat within.
Correcting the underlying data for Uzbekistan and introducing additional controls to make the model more robust to outlier data and anomalies resulting from the transition between data sources changed the global median income loss from 19% (18.8%) to 17% (17.4%).
Accounting for spatial correlation using ‘Conley standard errors’ did not affect the median, but did increase the uncertainty ranges, with the likely range of damages by mid-century increasing from 11-29% to 6-31%."
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/questions-and-answers-nature-study
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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:
That smaller part is a representative subset of the wider Atlantic part of the Arctic which is also at record lows for the date.
You can see record daily lows extending over to Svalbard on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.
Due to geography and season, the September records have been more Pacific focused like in September 2012.
So the record lows on the Atlantic side caused the entire Arctic to have a record low Jaxa extent on December 2nd. The extent is the lowest on record for the date at -425K below the previous record set in 2016.
Winter records are usually more on the Atlantic side over the years since it’s easier to have open water extending into the Barents and Kara seas due to Atlantification of the Arctic.
There is a much narrower opening to the Arctic near Alaska so it’s easier for the area north of Alaska to freeze over by this time of year.
Wider Arctic low matches regional lows across the Arctic.
Northern Hemi snow has also been running low for most of the cold season, record low at times. This can shift quickly. Currently Eurasia is very low, while N America is above average with recent snow advance.
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42 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:
Should be noted that the first graph posted is only a small part of the Arctic.
Sea ice is close to normal on the Pacific side; but well below normal on the Atlantic side and Canada.
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Global Average Temperature 2025
in Climate Change
Posted
CERES net radiation continues to increase off the El Nino bottom set in late summer 2024. The last net radiation peak occurred in January 2023, as the 3-year nina came to an end. With growing signs of a shift from nina to nino conditions another peak is probably developing this winter. If so the next net radiation peak will be well below Jan 2023 levels and more in-line with winter of 21/22 and other recent nina peaks since 2008. Indicates that a portion of the unusually high peak in winter2022/2023 was enso-related. In-any-case the current radiation imbalance would support a rise in global temperatures to record levels if moderate/strong nino conditions develop as forecast.