chubbs

Clear we have passed an energy tipping point, with fossil fuels becoming increasingly uncompetitive. China's large manufacturing scale key in driving down costs. Countries without entrenched fossil fuel interests are leading the way and China will sell them the gear.   

https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-energy-transition-review-2025/

PIOMASS sea ice volume is currently number 2 behind 2012. Volume losses were unusually low this year in June, similar to 2017 in that regard.  

On 8/28/2025 at 1:03 PM, A-L-E-K said:

china ftw

 

Ocean heat content in the 0-2000m layer has jumped up this year, recovering from a nino-related dip. A sign that warming at a fast clip continues.

Solar is accelerating rapidly in Africa. This is mainly due to economics, lower cost of solar panels and batteries.

On 8/21/2025 at 8:54 AM, bluewave said:

 

 

It is interesting to compare the current standing and recent trends in SST vs global temperatures. Comparing to 2024, SST have risen through the year particularly in summer months, while global temperatures have cooled relative to 2024. Difficult to compare 2025 to 2023 because of the strong rise in temperature in 2023, but just looking at August, both SST and global temperatures are somewhat cooler in 2025 vs 2023.  Comparing 2025 to pre-2023 years, SST is currently warmer than any year by a good margin, while global temperatures are not well clear of the pre-2023 years. Taken as a whole, 2025 SST is like 2023, unusually warm for the enso condition; but, unlike 2023, global temperatures are not unusual for the enso state. Mid-latitude marine heat wave probably playing a role . Will be interesting to track as summer turns to fall. Guessing SST will cool will warm relative to other years and global temperatures will warm; but, we will see.

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like another season ending in the 4-5 sq million range for September average extent. Years like 2012 and 2020 dropping under 4million sq km have been the exception. So have years finishing over 5 million sq km like 2009, 2013, and 2014.

So a very stable September minimum regime since the record declines back in the strong 2007-2012 dipole era. This reversal of the dipole has prevented us from exceeding the 2012 minimum so far.

So we can say with confidence that 2007 lead to a regime shift in the sea ice. Extent and thickness have not been able to recover to the much higher pre-2007 ice. Even with multiple summer seasons with very favorable lower pressure circulation patterns for sea ice retention. The annual warmth in the Arctic has just been too strong to allow any type of recovery. 

 

2024…..4.38

2023…..4.37

2022….4.87

2021……4.92

2020……3.92…2nd lowest

2019……4.32

2018…...4.71

2017……4.87

2016……4.72

2015…..4.63

2014…..5.28

2013…..5.35

2012…..3.60….lowest

2011……4.61

2010…..4.90

2009….5.36

2008….4.67

2007…..4.28

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL114546

A regime shift is an abrupt, substantial, and persistent change in the state of a system. We show that a regime shift in the September Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE) occurred in 2007. Before 2007, September SIE was declining approximately linearly. In September 2007, SIE had its largest year-to-year drop in the entire 46-year satellite record (1979–2024). Since 2007, September SIE has fluctuated but exhibits no long-term trend. The regime shift in 2007 was caused by significant export and melt of older and thicker sea ice over the previous 2–3 years, as documented in other studies. We test alternatives to the traditional linear model of declining September SIE, and discuss possible explanations for the lack of a trend since 2007.

Current Jaxa extent 

After several decades of rapid warming, arctic warming ground to a halt in the past 10-15 years. while warming in the NHemi mid-latitudes sped up. Consistent with recent trends in arctic sea ice and our recent winters.

12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It just gets exhausting trying to explain this to the people that can’t synthesize global perspectives; probably as a native intellectual limitation. Which unfortunately is precisely what is needed if somebody’s going to understand how global warming works  

Dimes to donuts the majority of the people in the denier frame of mind are narrow perspective types

Yes, UHI and global warming are both happening. The presence of one doesn't diminish the other. This thread/board is littered with whataboutism. What about this, what about that. Many things can be true at the same time. That doesn't change the big picture. Scientists from the 1970s would not be surprised by the warmer world we have today or that Phoenix has a heat island.

52 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What is the website to generate these graphs?

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v4_globe/

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I've often noted that Phoenix's warmth is a combination of UHI and climate change. The scientific literature describes numerous impacts on the Southwest monsoon in a warmer climate, particularly a drier monsoon season, fewer rain events, and higher temperatures during monsoon season. 

This evolution is currently in its early stages. The outcome described in the literature won't happen all at once or uniformly.

Phoenix deserves focused attention because it represents both an extreme case and an early signal of how climate change and aridification interact in the desert Southwest. Phoenix’s accelerated warming, even as UHI amplifies the impact of ongoing warming, makes it a valuable barometer of what other communities may face as aridification deepens across the state.

 

Not sure about Phoenix as a whole. But the heat island effect looks saturated at the Sky Harbor airport which isn't far from downtown.  Actual and adjusted temperatures have warmed at the same rate since 1980. This means that the airport is warming at the same rate as regional sites outside of the Phoenix heat island. Before 1980 there is evidence of heat island warming at the airport (or some other site specific issue).

19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It would be interesting to compare the interior of Antarctic's atmospheric chemistry/constituencies, against the regions outside during strong +AAO circulation modes persisting. 

The arctic has much lower variability in the summer as melting sea ice holds surface temperature near freezing. That gives Antarctica more influence over the global mean in N Hemi summer. Unfortunately there isn't a similar plot for antarctica. 

As the year has progressed, 2025 has cooled at an increasing rate vs 2024. Remember that 2025 stayed stubbornly warm as the el nino waned. My take is that some of the typical  post-nino cooling was delayed until this year. We are still warm vs pre-nino conditions but not gobsmacking.

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This isn't surprising when one makes an "Apples-to-Apples" comparison. Philadelphia's heat island is relatively mature. So one sees a relatively constant UHI effect (I illustrated it below on the graph you created) amidst the year-to-year variability and a similar longer-term trend in temperatures. Most or virtually all of the recent warming is from climate change, as one would expect when a heat island is mature.

Reading is likely exhibiting a faster warming trend, as it has seen very rapid population growth (proxy for an expanding heat island that is amplifying its warming trend) since 2000 (population +350% 2000-24) relative to Philadelphia, which has seen a 3.7% increase in population over that same period.

Yes UHI at the Philly airport is saturated. UHI is non-linear with population density. Per chart below, the biggest UHI effect comes with the initial urbanization. In addition there isn't much year-to-year or decade-to-decade change in the area near the airport. Minor building in the flat part of the curve isn't going to move the needle.

Here's a chart and table combining the Chesco, Berks and Philly Airport (PHL) data from the previous page or two. No doubt about it, Chesco, Berks, and PHL are all warming at the same rapid rate.

15 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Some folks on my FB page asked me to start running some deeper analytic dives into Berks County climate data. Below is KRDG Airport average annual temperatures vs. KPHL Airport and Chester County. 1949 through 2024. KRDG and Chesco not too far off....but oh that PHL UHI pulling away!

PHL isn't pulling away though.  You are looking at the regression line, not the data itself. Reading (and Chesco) are warming as fast as the airport at the end of your chart., Note also that there are several years when Reading (and Chesco) is warmer than the Philadelphia Airport. That's a red flag for a data issue of some kind. Those years could have a big effect on the regression line. So what's going on here.

I found two sets of data. COOP data from Xmacis starting in 1999, with the first year of full coverage in 2000; and, ASOS data from IEM which starting in 1943, but with many missing or incomplete years before 1973. Note that I was only able to find info on missing data at IEM with a one month resolution, So there may be some periods with missing data included in this analysis. 

The COOP data starting in 2000 shows a close match between RDG and PHL, with RDG warming faster than PHL, 1.3F/Decade vs 1.0F/Decade

The ASOS data also shows a close match between RDG and PHL, but there is more scatter in the pre-2000 period, perhaps due to missing data. The difference between Reading and Philly is roughly the same in 1943 and 2024.

You are beating a dead horse. There is plenty of high quality data that shows that the Airport is warming at the same rate as Chesco and the entire region. Sure you can find incomplete/inconsistent data or conduct a faulty analysis that says otherwise, but that doesn't negate the findings from the high quality data. You have to look at all the evidence. A piece of evidence that disagrees with consistent results from high quality data is inevitably flawed in some way.  

22 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

The Chester County COOP data is contaminated by station moves and other station changes, particularly in the 1945-1970 period. The three COOPs in existence in 1945 all had major cooling moves in this period: Coatesville (1946-47), Phoenixville (1948) and West Chester (1970). The Coatesville and West Chester moves have been well documented in this thread. The Phoenixville move in 1948 was equally significant as shown in the chart below.

During the 1941-54 period covered by the chart, PHL tracks West Chester closely, along with with ABE and the Newark Ag station. I showed above that the airport PHL tracks Chester County station data very well when station moves are excluded: West Chester 1941-69, Coatesville 1948-current, Phoenixville 2000-25, and all the other Chesco stations. There is no evidence of a major heat island problem at the Philadelphia airport in previous page or two of material. 

You can't understand Chester County's climate without recognizing and accounting for the station moves and other changes at the Chester County COOPs. Your charts are just highlighting problems in the Chester county COOP data and/or your analysis methods.

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

See above added Morgantown and Hopewell....the stations analyzed are now only 34 feet higher on average than in the 1970's

Meh, your recent station table didn't include either station. Why the addition of these two stations now?  Per NCDC Hopewell/Morgantown isn't even in Chester County and only starts in 1979, so has minimal impact on the 1970s. Can't find any information on Hopewell/Elverson at NCDC or IEM. Note that West Grove the highest of the other 1970s sites ended operation in 1976. Only the 4 lowest sites operated throughout the 1970s. So you are overstating the average 1970s elevation, potentially by a lot depending on when Hopewell/Elverson started-up.

Its all a quibble anyway. PHL trends with Avondale for July high temperatures just like it did for annual average temperatures, I'm sure its the same story with the other Chesco stations. Why would July Highs be different than annual average temperature? 

One final point, The Phoenixville COOP is on the water company property. The water company property is not built up, with a few water company buildings, a small reservoir, woods and fields; and it doesn't change very much from year-to-year or decade-to-decade. Unlikely to have any heat island effects. Just another example of PHL doing a better job of matching individual Chesco station data than your network average.

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

To put a further fine point on this - Charlie's statement above is incorrect. The average station elevation has not increased by 100ft.  Below by decade is the average elevation of Chester County stations. They have clearly not changed much at all!

I get 339' in 1970: Phoenixville- 105, Coatesville 1SW - 342, Devault - 360, West Chester - 440, West Grove - 449. 

17 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

The PHL Airport recorded 21 days over 90 degrees in July. The average high temperature was 90.5 degrees. Our own little heat island spot at Phoenixville clocked in at a toasty 89.2 average high with 15 such days. The growing disparity between Urban Heat Island stations and more rural stations is best highlighted when looking at the average high temperature comparison looking at the airport since 1970 when the heat island problems began in earnest. Comparing there vs. The Phoenixville Cooperative data vs. All other Chester County average high temperatures since 1970. While Phoenixville (purple line) has shown warming during our current warm climate cycle they are now clearly being surpassed by the PHL Airport (red line). The rest of Chester County (blue line) has warmed much slower than both PHL and Phoenixville.

Yawn, Avondale and PHL are have similar trends for July Highs. All you are showing is that your station average doesn't match individual station data. Big change in the station network since 1970. The average station today is 100' higher. 

12 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Full disclosure as I'm long FSLR stock and ICLN etf shares as of a couple of months ago, but it's suffered on an important metric that doesn't ever seem to be discussed: profitability. For better or worse live and breathe in a market system, where component cost is only one part of the equation and the considerable firming costs get downplayed (esp. at high penetration, at low pen. they're negligible). There is no OPEC for RE and the oft cited negative power prices are a symptom of high volatility, something that's never good for bottom lines in a commodity space. If you rushed to buy in '21 during the initial wave of optimism without careful consideration of the downsides, you got rinsed for 70%+ of your investment.

The recent growth in PV+BESS is encouraging and I think the equity side has been pounded enough that it's a decent buy for LT positions, but we're going to have to spend a lot of cash upgrading the grid to handle this as well and that cost isn't going to be cheap, esp. at today's interest rates. If we're not honest about that up front, then well... the political backlash will be even worse than we've seen so far.

I agree this should have been 10 years ago -- I think rebound and network effects along with struggling profitability are going to result in it the transition moving slower than it otherwise could have. It still needs subsidies to fill the gap. Some companies are better than others, ofc.

Yes, renewables and fossil fuel are completely different industries: extractive vs tech manufacturing. Fossil fuels are very profitable if you control a cheap resource. In renewables China is the low cost-supplier, with an ever widening lead. Making it difficult for the rest of the world to compete. We are a laggard in renewables from a cost standpoint due to tariffs, permitting costs and other factors. With the current administration we aren't going to catch-up either. Another factor is natural gas prices, which are well below global levels in the US due to our local production. Which also hurts the competitiveness of renewables. In the future as US LNG exports continue to increase, the difference between our gas prices and the rest of the world could shrink. We could easily end up with high cost power, vs the rest of the world, particularly China. 

Batteries and solar are becoming increasingly important to energy economics supplanting oil and other fossil fuels. We are way behind China and falling further behind. Hitching our wagon to the wrong energy horse.  

https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/solar/us-solar-manufacturers-lag-skyrocketing-market-demand/

https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/global-cost-of-renewables-to-continue-falling-in-2025-as-china-extends-manufacturing-lead-bloombergnef/

The big difference between the Phila Airport and the Chesco station average occurred in the 1945-1970 period. That's when the Chesco station average cooled significantly relative to other regional stations. Before 1945, Chesco COOPs were as warm as the Philly Airport or the Newark DE Ag station. By 1970, Chesco COOPS were as cool as Allentown. The cooling was mainly due to station moves: Coatesville 1946/47, Phoenixville 1948 and West Chester 1970. A reverse heat island effect for Coatesville and West Chester. Meanwhile the Phila Airport tracked other regional stations and West Chester before the 1970 West Chester move. The raw data is very clear. The Phila Airport is a much more consistent source of climate data than the Chesco COOPs. PHL's consistency advantage grows when non-COOP data is added making the Chesco data even more inconsistent.

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! Scorcher today in Chester County, even in these carefully curated cool microclimates. That's a big pet peeve of mine... why spend all of this money on a "mesonet" and then place all of the equipment on farms or in parks, rather than in the communities where people live and work.

I don't mind the network, but it is different from our COOP stations, particularly the older ones. Night and day different. By the way, regarding your post of a couple of days ago. Per the last few pages, there are quite a few local sites at 1F/decade in recent decades. Won't change what I wrote previously, but will keep an eye on it.

16 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Below with the supporting calculations are Phoenixville longest complete data vs. PHL over the last 25 years. The 2 stations are clearly not warming at the same rate....but the trending increasing differences between the 2 stations and Chester County as a whole is due to UHI at the airport.

Meh. There isn't a big difference in the 2000-25 warming rate between Philadelphia and Phoenixville: 1.00 deg/decade for Phoenixville and 1.05 deg/decade for PHL. The difference is only 5% of the warming rate and is probably not statistically significant. 

I updated my table with the new Phoenixville and DEOS trends. No change in the main finding. Some plusses and minuses from station to station but on the whole the airport is warming at the same rate as Chesco stations.

8 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

PHL vs Longwood Gardens??? you guessed it - are any stations in Chester County warming as fast as our UHI contaminated PHL Airport?

Nice cherry pick among the DEOS. Per chart below, there is no difference warming between the 11 DEOS stations as a whole and the Philadelphia Airport. Some are warming faster than PHL and some slower.  The warming rate for the DEOS stations in the 2012 and 2024 period, when all stations were active, is 1.17F per decade. The rate for the Philadelphia Airport is 1.15F/decade. Note that the airport had a warm sensor issue in 2022, which caused a one year spike in temperatures vs other regional station.  That's not a heat island effect, since it disappeared in 2023. In any case the 11 DEOS stations and the Avondale USCRN station show conclusively that Chester County is warming rapidly in recent years, over 1F per decade. Can't blame it on heat island effects either. The stations are all remote.

20 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Below with the supporting calculations are Phoenixville longest complete data vs. PHL over the last 25 years. The 2 stations are clearly not warming at the same rate....but the trending increasing differences between the 2 stations and Chester County as a whole is due to UHI at the airport.

That's what I had in my table. Phoenixville warming faster than PHL between 1970 and 2024. However per the table the following stations warmed faster than PHL:  Devault (1951-88), Coatesville 2W (1983-07). West Chester (phl had more cooling, 1941-69), KMQS (2009-24), Avondale 2N (2007-24), and DEOS 3 stn (2010-24). As I said a mixed bag, but on average no difference.