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chubbs

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Everything posted by chubbs

  1. chubbs
    Here is the American Meteorological Society statement on climate. I don't see any debate or disagreement. The debate is among non-scientists: conservative think tanks, politicians, science denial press (WSJ an example), blogs, etc. https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/about-ams/ams-and-climate-change/
  2. chubbs
    Same old story from Koonin. He doesn't get any traction from scientists, but will probably sell some books. https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2021/04/18/did-a-physicist-become-a-climate-truth-teller/ https://slate.com/technology/2014/10/the-wall-street-journal-and-steve-koonin-the-new-face-of-climate-change-inaction.html
  3. chubbs
  4. chubbs
    Yes with the right comparison, CMIP5 is close to observations and CMIP6 runs a little warm. Thought Spencers' SST values looked too warm. Wouldn't discount other errors. A while ago I estimated the following trends using KNMI explorer for the period 1975 to 2020: RCP6 globe - 0.218 (Tos, not SST blended so warmer than obs) RCP6 ocean only - 0.144 HADSST4 - 0.152 Finally how did you make the chart.
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  6. chubbs
    Yes tough sell for expensive solutions, fortunately its getting to the point where a push to net-zero isn't going to cost much, may even reduce costs in the long run. From ZekeH's twitter.
  7. chubbs
    Wouldn't modify sherwood 2020's conclusions based on my simple estimates. In addition to the caveats given above, the radiation paper notes that some forcing components are ignored - ozone and aerosol cloud. Agree with your last post though, ECS<2 seems very unlikely.
  8. chubbs
    Yes, CMIP5 mean was 1.8. So probably too high. The period is short and there is other uncertainty.
  9. chubbs
    Just noodling some #. Doubled CO2 is 3.7 W/m2 so forcing increase is roughly 0.9% of doubled CO2 per year. GISS temperature increase over same period is .0229C per year giving a rough TCR of 2.6. Plenty of uncertainty in slopes due to short time-period, but warming and forcing both increasing at a good clip. Giss trend - http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html
  10. chubbs
    Sun is waking up
  11. chubbs
    Yes, wind is a scapegoat for those want to shirk responsibility for rolling the dice and getting snake eyes. Wind turbines and other electrical infrastructure are working fine in Wisconsin. https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/environment/built-for-cold-wisconsin-grid-hums-along-in-temperatures-that-crippled-texas/article_f42cd474-67fc-5fd8-888e-03d69d9ba215.html
  12. chubbs
    Yes 2021 will be cooler than 2020, but so far there is no indication that the drop will be unusual for a La Nina. I posted this chart a few days ago in the 2020 thread. ENSO conditions currently are very similar to early 2011, but global average temperatures are much warmer. Note that Jan 2021 is above the long-term trend line, while Jan 2011 was below. If we can't get below the trend line, we are going to need a new, steeper one.
  13. chubbs
    Chart from Hanson's January update. January was only 6'th warmest due to nina. This years nina is very similar in strength to 2010/11. As Hanson points out, if warming is steady, 12-month running average should drop below the trend line, similar to 2011. If not, there has been an acceleration probably due to forcing picking up. http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/January2021.pdf
  14. chubbs
    I hope you are kidding about "limits of measurement". The ocean heat trend is very robust. Temperature measurement in water is more meaningful due to high heat capacity and there is much less year-to-year variability. Another record in 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-021-0447-x
  15. chubbs
    Per my #: 1.022 vs 1.018, a difference that could disappear in future updates. Did you collect your bet?
  16. chubbs
    Geological Society of London Scientific Statement: what the geological record tells us about our present and future climate A good read. Yes the climate has varied in the past. https://jgs.lyellcollection.org/content/178/1/jgs2020-239
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  18. chubbs
    Seeing a big Dec plunge this year as well in reanalysis - 2010 a good analog
  19. chubbs
    Here is the horserace chart. 2020 grabbed the lead. You're bet looks good.
  20. chubbs
    Could have gotten better than even money a couple of days ago on the site you linked above - I would have taken those odds
  21. chubbs
    Yes, wouldn't be surprised if 2020 grabs the lead after Nov. Interestingly, 2010, another nina, also set a Nov GISS record before plunging in Dec, so may come down to the wire.
  22. chubbs
    November has been very warm despite the nina. Record looks likely now.
  23. chubbs
    The pessimistic permafrost modeling study posted above was conducted by professors at a business school using a simple model they developed. Would heavily discount. Not that permafrost isn't a problem, but need better models to evaluate. https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-crisis-tipping-point-world-warm-b1721822.html
  24. chubbs
    GISS comparison through October below. Going to be a close race right to the wire despite ENSO being less favorable for warmth this year.
  25. chubbs
    yes it was warm: March 47 +6.2 T the last 1.2" of snow fell in April. Enjoyed the outlook.
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