RIC Airport

If I had to make a call for RIC officially, I'd go with 3.3". The daily snowfall record is 1.8" set in 1988.

If RIC reaches 6" tomorrow December 9th, it will be the 2nd earliest 6"+ snowstorm on record. The earliest is November 6, 1953, followed by December 11, 1958.

Those graphics are still from this morning.

18Z NAM just crushes the RIC area.

Watch just issued! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 VAZ048-061-062-068-069-509>516-090400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.181209T1200Z-181210T0900Z/ Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Mechanicsville, Bon Air, Midlothian, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights, Richmond, and Sandston 250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Wet snow, moderate to heavy at times will develop Sunday morning and continue through the day. The snow may mix with rain at times, especially closer to I-95, as temperatures rise above freezing. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Some light icing is possible Sunday night as temperatures drop below freezing. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia including the Richmond Metro. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and potentially dangerous travel on Sunday into Sunday night. The wet nature of the snow will also allow it to stick to tree limbs which could cause some isolated outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. && $$ MRD http://www.weather.gov/akq

Yeah, if anything, they should've issued a Winter Storm Watch and then downgrade it to a WWA later if necessary. I see that LWX has included Albemarle and Augusta, and Nelson Counties to a watch.

Definitely reason for concern. But, that won't be the dominate precip type.

They provided a late morning update, but of course, that was before all the midday runs were finished. Typically the afternoon package is sent between 3-5pm, so I wouldn't expect too much before then. Either way, I think we can make our own forecast with the information we have access to. AKQ is very conservative and typically catch up as we go along.

BTW, the RIC daily snowfall record for 12/9 is 1.8" set in 1988. Good chance it will be broken.

I like the trends on the models today. I think 3-5" is a solid bet for the RIC metro area which is not a bad way to start the winter. Been a frustrating week, never seems to be a slam dunk for this area.

Oh yeah, I know. It's just that AKQ may not get the numbers from the observers until after CLI is sent. I would hope that after all these years of bickering about the numbers, AKQ has addressed the issue. Hopefully, KRIC at least had the snowboard out today, lol.

The preliminary CLI shows a Trace of snow at Richmond today. Meanwhile, 0.1" was recorded at ORF. I'm actually shocked there wasn't a similar amount at RIC, maybe it'll be reflected in the final report sent around 1:30am.

Doesn't happen too often, but it does from time to time. Most recently was January 7, 2017 when RIC received 7.1" and DCA only 0.4". Also, January 2-3, 2002 where RIC received 7.7" and DCA didn't record ANY snow from that storm. If RIC gets a large total, just due to DC's proximity, it's hard for them to stay under an inch. The better question would be, how often does RIC surpass DCA's totals from the same storms? And that has happened lots of times.

RIC's first official snow of the 2018-19 season going on right now. Radar looks decent, may get up to a dusting in some spots.

For expectation management going into this weekend, here the official December snowfall events at RIC going back to 1950. Amounts are generally less than 6 inches (6"+ in bold). The two earliest snowstorms delivering 6 inches or more occurred on November 6-7, 1953 (7.3") and December 11, 1958 (6.7"). December events exceeding 10" have only occurred twice since Richmond's snowfall observations began in 1897. Those were December 12-14, 1917 (10.4") and December 22-23, 1908 (17.2"). 3.1” December 8-9, 2017 4.3” December 25-26, 2010 2.0” December 16, 2010 1.1” December 13, 2010 0.6” December 4, 2010 7.4” December 18-19, 2009 4.4” December 5-6, 2005 1.3” December 19, 2004 5.0” December 4-5, 2002 1.2” December 26-27, 2000 1.0” December 19, 2000 0.2” December 29, 1997 1.0” December 27, 1997 1.0” December 19, 1996 1.5” December 7, 1995 4.1” December 28-29, 1993 0.1” December 25, 1993 0.9” December 23, 1993 0.8” December 19, 1989 5.0” December 12-13, 1989 5.9” December 8-9, 1989 1.8” December 9, 1988 1.3” December 20, 1985 1.8” December 19, 1982 6.1” December 12, 1982 1.1” December 25, 1981 0.1” December 22, 1981 0.7” December 15-16, 1981 0.2” December 27, 1980 1.7” December 8, 1976 0.7” December 21, 1973 4.3” December 16-17, 1973 4.4” December 11, 1973 0.7” December 31, 1970 0.2” December 25, 1970 1.8” December 25-26, 1969 2.8” December 7, 1968 0.2” December 31, 1967 5.4” December 22-23, 1967 3.2” December 28, 1966 8.8” December 23-24, 1966 0.3” December 13, 1966 0.4 December 18, 1963 4.3” December 25, 1962 3.6” December 21, 1962 0.1” December 11, 1962 0.1” December 9, 1962 0.2” December 28, 1961 0.4” December 24, 1961 0.3” December 9, 1961 1.7” December 12, 1960 1.2” December 19, 1959 5.8” December 14, 1958 6.7” December 11, 1958 0.8” December 11, 1957 2.1” December 4, 1957 2.2” December 5-6, 1954 0.7” December 10-11, 1950 So, climatologically speaking, big events are not as likely to happen in December. If a decent event doesn't pan out this weekend, hopefully, there will be other opportunities during more favorable times of the winter.

Shucks! Yep, and as mentioned on the previous page, we are still fighting climo. :-(

Here are all of RIC's official December snow events going back 30 years. There aren't very many over 2" overall. That said, many of the larger ones did happen early in the month. Just posting these for expectation management. 3.1” December 8-9, 2017 4.3” December 25-26, 2010 2.0” December 16, 2010 1.1” December 13, 2010 0.6” December 4, 2010 7.4” December 18-19, 2009 4.4” December 5-6, 2005 1.3” December 19, 2004 5.0” December 4-5, 2002 1.2” December 26-27, 2000 1.0” December 19, 2000 0.2” December 29, 1997 1.0” December 27, 1997 1.0” December 19, 1996 1.5” December 7, 1995 4.1” December 28-29, 1993 0.1” December 25, 1993 0.9” December 23, 1993 0.8” December 19, 1989 5.0” December 12-13, 1989 5.9” December 8-9, 1989 1.8” December 9, 1988

In addition to this, we are fighting early December climo. At this point, I'm not going to entertain anything more than 4 or 5" at RIC. I know strange things happen and records can be broken, but amounts more than that just don't happen very often this early in the season.

AKQ is already highlighting a potential winter storm threat for next weekend. Hope it pans out before the flip to a milder pattern. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=AKQ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Today's rain puts Richmond at 60.28" for the year, which ranks as the 4th wettest on record since 1887. Another 3.02", which is clearly possible in the next 30 days, would put 2018 as the 2nd wettest year. Additionally, there has been 16.22" of rain since September 1st, which means fall 2018 (Sep-Nov) ranks as the 8th wettest fall on record.

Anyone in the RVA area see sleet? We missed out on this one, maybe will be lucky next time.

RIC officially at 32 now and since it's before midnight date goes down as 11/10.