RIC Airport

4 pm Temp on Monday, 2/15 DCA 33°F DFW 14°F DEN 21°F Low temperature for Tuesday, 2/16 DCA 29°F DFW -1°F DEN 4°F

The main thread is not always our friend since it's very DC centric. Just gotta put some of the comments, analysis in context. Wakefield likes Saturday and evidently more than tonight, lol.

Was the last time we've seen it here, too. Doesn't happen very often.

AKQ kept the watch up, just extended the time it appears.

I have a hard time believing RIC will transition from RA to ZR, IP, and then +SN. That never happens and last time we thought it would was February 2003. That storm, like I said the other day, did transition from RA to IP, but the SN, at least enough for apprectiable accumulations, stayed well north of the metro area toward EZF. No scenario is ever really the same, just going on climo and what tends to happen around here. Obviously, I'm hoping for mostly snow and if everyone can get a widespread 4-8", that'd be cool.

I remember it, we really haven't had anything since. There was a pretty good ice storm a few days after the 1/25/2000 snowstorm, which to this day, is still my favorite snowstorm of all time in Richmond.

The high was 58. Ironically, the last time RIC reached 60 degrees was back on January 2nd. Not very many warm days this winter compared to the last couple. That said, it hasn't been all the cold either, January finished solidly above average thanks to fewer super cold nights.

I was shocked.

https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/first-guess-snow-map-for-feb-10-12-53a4d7b1f16e

Hope this doesn't continue trending too far south and dryer. Not long ago, a good chunk of this was in PA.

The set up for Wednesday night into Friday reminds me of the President's Day II storm (February 14-18, 2003). I mean, it may not be an exact match, but it more or less FEELs like that scenario based on what I am seeing. 2003, like the upcoming event looks to be, was a long duration event in the form of different waves of moisture with the main event happening on the 16th. It was supposed to be a historic event with easily 12-18" widespread across C VA, especially just north of RIC. It started off as rain and went over to sleet, but it simply did not get cold enough aloft for the snow accumulations forecasted. The metro area only received 3-4" of sleet, which was enough to shut schools and make for a nice wintry scene, but it was a big bust and huge letdown for us back then. During the height of the event, RIC was at 20°F while PHF, only 60 miles SE, was 60°F so there was a lot of warm air nearby which makes sense why we never got rid of the sleet. We also got dry slotted while DCA went on to record 16" of snow. Eventually, the sleet made it up there, but by then the storm was winding down. I am not saying a good snow (6"+) at RIC won't happen, but I remain skeptical given what I'm seeing. Hoping the one early-middle of next week is better for us. But, that said, at least we have storms to track unlike the last couple winters.

The LR continues to look very active. I'm seeing three additional opportunities on the GFS.

Its hard to get subzero temperatures at RIC when you get into mid February, really because the sun angle is much higher, thus longer days. The latest subzero reading on record at RIC happened on February 28th, so it's not impossible. Just need a really good airmass and solid snow cover. It came close in 2015, not sure why it didn't.

JB showed this on air tonight, emphasizing the airmass arriving next weekend. I'm personally more excited about the next snow and then getting some old time cold. Going to be a nice period coming up, maybe this February will be 2015's twin?

Quite a spread among the local TV stations.

Exactly why we started making this thread years ago.

Different algorithms.

I wonder if climate change has something to do with it. Who knows.

There are other scenarios such as January 25, 2000 and February 16, 1996 where the primary forms off the SC/ NC coast and track northward. We do well in those, too. Sometimes they are too far east such as January 3, 2018 and December 26, 2010.

Yup, I guess we technically had one recently, February 12-13, 2014, where RIC recorded 5.8", but we flipped to IP/ZR pretty rapidly. I don't recall the details, but the pattern was NOT a favorable one. In fact, the NAO was raging positive among other things so it makes sense we flipped with such a storm track, probably was a bootleg airmass, too. Maybe March 1-2, 2009 was one? I honestly can't remember the last one where we scored 10"+.....maybe February 10-11, 1983?

Yup, I love the overrunning events! December 9, 2018, February 16-17, 2015, January 30-31, 2010, etc come to mind. Bona fide Miller A's, where the primary low forms in the gulf and move up the coast, are better. But seems like they don't happen anymore, lol.

I apologize for just joining in on the discussion. I'm not on here as often as years past. I would be concerned about a faster changeover from snow to IP/ZR than we would like. And then of course there is the dreaded dry slot while we look to the north at DCA, PHL, etc. getting creamed. We saw this January 23-24, 2016, February 5-6, 2010, December 18-19, 2009, February 12-13, 2006, February 14-18, 2003 and January 6-8, 1996. Sometimes we are lucky, as was the case in 2016, 2010 and 1996, where RIC ADDed to its totals on the back in, but often times RIC is too far south and precip doesn't build back our way as it's getting colder. That said, I am really hoping for a solid 4"+ on the front end before things begin to go downhill. I am not confident about what the coastal will bring once it gets going.

18z GFS shows frigid temperatures around Xmas with a storm threat a few days later. Hope the storm delivers.