RIC Airport

Even Richmond reached 19°F this morning. This doesn't happen in November very often. Note below going back to 1950 the last time Richmond recorded teens during the month was in 2014. It did reach 20°F in November as recently as 2019, 2013, 2008 though.

Norfolk finally reached freezing for the first time this morning, a day earlier than any model had. Richmond dropped to 27°F, its lowest temperature since March 21st. Wakefield is now going with 20°F at RIC tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, overnight Euro and morning GFS backed off on upcoming rain amounts. There are two rounds of rain Friday afternoon into Friday night, then Sunday into early Monday. Below are the projected totals from Euro (top) and GFS (bottom) thru 7am Tuesday.

NWS Wakefield is going with a low of 22°F for Richmond and 26°F for Norfolk Wednesday morning. If realized, it would be one of the colder November temperatures of the previous 20 years at both stations. These are the lowest November temperatures going back to 2003 at both Richmond and Norfolk sorted lowest to highest.

The latest 12z GFS operational run highlights this as well. Not as cold as the Euro for lows, but no prolonged warmth. However, temps in Hampton Roads could exceed 70 in spots on Monday 12/4. The colder days, while certainly below normal, won't be that impressive from a historical sense. It also looks like we are mostly dry.

Nothing groundbreaking on the models today. The overall picture still looks favorable if you do not want prolonged widespread warmth. And there have been snowstorm signals on the models from time to time and that continues to be the case, but nothing is getting within 7-10 days. It's not even December yet so I am not getting alarmed just yet. Meantime, the Euro was a hair colder for mid-week with highs mostly in the low 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, by next Saturday, highs could be back in the low-mid 60s and then we warm up, possibly close to 70°F for far SE VA, ahead of the next cold front. That said, there was still some variability on the models for exactly how warm we get ahead of that next system. Below are the recent Euro 2m temperatures Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Enjoy some decent November cold and what looks to be the first hard freeze for many.

If today's 12z Euro is correct, Norfolk should hit freezing for the first time this fall soon. Below are the projected 7am temperatures for Wednesday morning with ORF at 32°F. The Euro then has a low of 30°F for Thursday morning. Time will tell as the GFS wasn't as cold. Although Richmond made it to 32°F back on the 2nd, next week will feature the first hard freeze of the season, about 2 to 2.5 weeks later than usual.

Happy Thanksgiving! 34 years ago today, it was a white Thanksgiving in Richmond as everyone woke up to snow on the ground. Officially 1.1" fell at the airport in the early morning hours. It was a surprise as the snow was forecasted to stay well north and west of the city. There was also sleet and freezing rain that caused some power outages. Here is the next day's RTD summarizing the event.

RIC is at 1.92". 1.16" of that was thru midnight 11/21.

Your 11/21 prediction will be definitely be close. Looks RIC was up to ~ 0.80" at 10pm. The heaviest bands are entering the metro area now although hard to say how much will make it to the airport, which is on the east side of town by midnight. As for snow, I'm always super bullish with Ninos. 15-20" is always a good number for Richmond in any Nino season. But, we all know there have been some Nino duds in the past, too.

NWS Wakefield published a video earlier today with a discussion about winter temperatures and emphasized snowfall in Richmond, VA and Norfolk, VA during El Nino, La Nina and Neutral years. Richmond's snowiest winters were during El Nino winters, while there was little to no signal for Norfolk. I would argue that Norfolk and far SE VA, in particular, actually has higher snowfall during La Nina seasons if you include all data in the period of record.

John Bernier from ABC 8News released his 2023-24 Richmond, VA snow prediction. He is predicting 18.6" of snow RIC in his winter outlook. He basically factored in past snowfall data at RIC during El Nino years. I think it's very reasonable. In fact, in the Mid-Atlantic 2023-24 snowfall contest thread, I believe I went with 24.7" for RIC. https://www.wric.com/weather/stormtracker8-john-berniers-2023-winter-weather-outlook-for-central-virginia/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR0CVE0tznzpz9uCrrSm1_5_UT8yawQyhDDiGm-XHDhzQ9H3gc_z3Q63wh4

0.55" at RIC while 0.05" at ORF thru 5pm. Will easily finish as the wettest day for most places since 9/23 during Tropical Storm Ophelia. The worst of the rains will be late this evening into the early hours of Wednesday morning.

I think you're on the right track with those first guesses. There's some pretty heavy rain showing up on the models tomorrow late evening into the overnight. Here is the GFS showing the 6 hour totals up to 07Z Wednesday. Also, the GFS has been persistent in developing a secondary low to our S and E on Wednesday afternoon before exiting the coast. It brings additional rain mainly from RIC and points SE Wednesday evening and into the overnight. It looks like Hampton Roads could really cash in if that low forms and tracks as depicted on this GFS run, although other models haven't been as bullish about this 2nd batch of rain. Totals for all rain from this mornings 6z GFS. This would be the most rain since Tropical Storm Ophelia came through the region back in September.

Most of our region was running slightly below average for most of this month, largely due to the first several days where daily departures from average were -10°F to -15°F. Richmond and Norfolk are officially running +1.5°F and +0.1°F for 11/1 to 11/18 respectively. Both stations should peak there, but are likely to finish slightly below average overall for November. And while Richmond has hit freezing for the first time this fall back on 11/2, the Norfolk airport has only reached 36°F so far. Should Norfolk not reach freezing this month, it will be the first time since 2020 when the first freeze did not occur in November. Since 1876 this has only happened 30 times. The average first freeze at Norfolk is November 21st with the latest not having occurred until December 28th back in 1918. Meanwhile, it's starting to becoming clear that the next 10-11 days won't be as cold as it initially appeared. It looks like low to mid-50s for highs on the coldest days, but there has been quite a bit of variability for temperatures on the models from run to run.

Today's 12z Euro model maintains its earlier solutions and timing for next week's storm. Rain is gone by early Wednesday morning as it develops the 2nd low later in time and does so well north and east of our area. As a result, while there are still good amounts, the rainfall amounts are lower than the 12z GFS.

Richmond picked up a trace of rain between 1am and 2am this morning. The last time there was measurable rain was back on Halloween when 0.07” was recorded. The most consecutive number of days without measurable precip is 36 days (10/15/2001 to 11//19/2001) and RIC currently stands at 17 days. The 10/1 to 11/17 period currently is the 3rd driest such stretch on record standing behind 1941 and 2001. Interestingly 1965, which is a top winter analog being thrown around for this year, had the 9th driest October to November on record. All of that said, today's 12z operational run GFS had a very healthy and much needed dosage of rain for the region. The timing of the rain is late Tuesday morning into the early morning hours of Thanksgiving Day. There are two rounds of rain as the GFS develops a second low that tracks to our south and east Wednesday evening into the overnight. There are widespread 2-3" of rain per this run. (see below)

Today's 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS provided more hope for decent rainfall totals next week. This looks to be the best chance of rain in two months since Tropical Storm Ophelia came through the area. Timing looks to be Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. 18Z GFS 12Z EURO

***Posting for Fun *** If you've been following the long range thread you may have learned that the weather pattern could become interesting as we approach the end of November and the beginning of December. Today's 12z GFS operational run threw most of this area a bone. Its ensembles, however, were not nearly as exciting. But, that doesn't mean we are completely out of the woods for this timeframe. Anyway, there were actually two snow chances just a few days apart on today's 12Z GFS, something this area hasn't seen in a meaningful way since January 1996 or in January 1987. Hopefully this is a sign of the times. Here is storm #1, you can see storm #2 already coming out of OK and AR. Now below is storm #2, coming in more south of the first one. And here was the resultant snowfall map after the two storm. Like I said, just posting in here for fun. We all know this will change at 18Z. Richmond recorded 0.9" on November 12, 2019 so if something like this was to happen, it would be one of the earliest accumulating events since the December 4-5, 2002 snowstorm where KRIC recorded 5.0". Then of course there was the big one on December 9, 2018 when RIC recorded 11.5".

Saturday November 11th is the anniversary of the Veterans Day snowstorm of 1987. RIC officially recorded 4.5 inches from the storm. According to area COOP stations, many places in the metro area saw on the order of 3-6". Accumulating snows even fell in the Hampton Roads area with parts of the southside reporting up to an inch in places. ORF recorded 0.3" officially. Below is a page from the Richmond Times-Dispatch from the morning of November 12, 1987 about the storm.

The latest GFS and Euro has the warmth peaking during the middle and end of next week before we cool off Veterans Day weekend and into the next week. RIC could even hit 80 degrees next week. In fact, the record high for Thursday is 81°F set in 1986 and Friday's record is 79°F from 1966. Outside of some spotty rural areas, most of us may not reach freezing again until the Sunday or Monday before Thanksgiving. The 12Z GFS did show what seemed to be a glancing blow of cold beginning that week before implying a warm up in time for Thanksgiving Day. But, that's way out there and could change, of course. Either way, we still look very dry with limited chances of precipitation for the foreseeable future, although things may turn wetter the closer we get to Thanksgiving.

That's exactly how I feel. A bona fide shutout and wall to wall warmth two years in a row has to be unlikely.

The cold snap was impressive, Wallops Island and Elizabeth City broke record lows this morning.

It was RIC's earliest freeze since 2013, which was the last time it hit freezing in October. 11-10 to 11-15 seems to be becoming the new normal. The last spring freeze, although it has trended earlier, seems to be more on par with the historical average.

BWI: 42.1” DCA: 36.5” IAD: 47.3” RIC: 24.7” Tiebreaker SBY: 28.4”

Time for a new thread as the old one was 6 years old. This thread is mainly for those in the NWS Wakefield CWA but not necessarily exclusive to it as anyone is welcomed to chime in. Lets hope there will be plenty to talk about this winter. The current chill is already something to talk about as the freeze at Richmond airport this morning marked KRIC's earliest freeze since 2013, which was the last time the airport officially hit freezing in October.