RIC Airport

Yup, not giving up hope since the Euro has been more consistent and colder for us! I added the total QPF and the Kuchera map to my above post. Unfortunately, I'll be away from my computer most of the afternoon and won't be active when the Euro runs. I'll try to peak at my phone at least when I can, but later this evening, I'll be fully available to comment for our region, which you won't see in the forum long-range thread. (aka the DC only ).

Interestingly, the GFS gets us very cold following the storm. GFS has widespread single digits and low teens inland, with RIC hitting 10°F Wednesday morning and only 24°F for a high. If it's true that RIC only reaches 24°F, it would be the coldest high temperature since 12/23/22. I went back to 2010, and below are the coldest high temperatures since then. Threshold Exceedance Summary Station: RICHMOND BYRD AP State: VA ID: 447201 Latitude: 37.51 degrees Longitude: -77.32 degrees Elevation: 166 feet Station period of record: 01/01/1897-01/10/2024 CLIMOD product: Thresholds Creation time: 01/11/2024 11:54 EST Element: Maximum Temperature Units: degree F Threshold: <=23.00 Years: 2010 - 2023 Season: November - March Column delimiter: tab Date Value 01/07/2014 22 01/22/2014 23 02/16/2015 22 02/19/2015 23 02/20/2015 21 01/06/2018 23 01/07/2018 23

12Z GFS is still a snow event, particularly for the Richmond area, but as usual, the devil is in the details. GFS depicts some mid-level warm concerns for a portion of the storm. Although surface temps are around freezing when the precip starts, the 850 MB temp starts around +1°C at 15Z Tuesday and drops to 0°C by 18Z and -2°C by 21Z. It’s during this time the bulk of the precip is falling, and so that’s why things are complicated along, south and east of about US Hwy 360. So, its hard to say exactly how much this cuts down totals. But, I think RIC should see its first inch. Not as confident about Hampton Roads, although even the southside could see falling snow as the storm pulls away.

FWIW, the 6Z EPS only goes out to hour 144 so the event is not quite over. I do not see anything alarming. I think this indicates that 12Z EPS will probably be decent.

Definitely gonna be interesting. Hopefully, this doesn't slip away from us. The 6Z GFS was a step back but produced snow on the backside. Here is the 6Z GEFS, though. Most hits are centered around 1/16 to 1/17, which the below maps focus on. Looking at the charts, snow threats beyond early next week were weak, @ldub23. Today's 12Z could very well have a SE ridge at 384. I also added ECG for you, @Stormpc.

EPS

Here was the 00Z Euro. A nice stripe of snow for most about Williamsburg north and west.

Yup, I agree. I stayed up to look at the GEFS for the 16th-17th threat, and they certainly didn't take away the chances. GEFS is still running, so these maps are only through Wednesday afternoon to cover the first threat. The operational run did have the next snowstorm threat around the 20th and I'll check the rest and EPS when I wake up.

00Z GFS keeps us in the game and seems closer to a decent event early next week. This is definitely not the end solution. I will not be staying up for the Euro. I will be looking at everything when I wake up.

The 00z 3K NAM has Friday's rain arriving between 5pm and 6pm and moving offshore by 3am Saturday. Rainfall amounts look nothing like yesterday's storm, generally under a half inch, with the most in the northern and western areas. Totals across far SE VA and NE NC were the driest this run, which is on par with the NBM model. The 3K NAM still had high wind gusts exceeding 50mph in many areas. SPC added a marginal risk of severe across our part of the region, probably due to the strong winds. They might expand the risk area in tomorrow morning's update.

Ah, no worries. I can see how that can happen. For the calendar year, 2018 was the last to reach 20" thanks to the 12/9/2018 storm. But, there have not been many since about 1990, which seems to have been a turning point when looking at the period of record data back to 1897.

I am unsure where that came from, but that is incorrect, assuming it is for Richmond. 1957-58 was a 20"+ season (20.2") and also 1959-60 (32.2"). It looks like the current stretch of 13 seasons from 2010-11 to 2022-23 ties the record longest with 1996-97 to 2008-09. Should we make it the rest of 2023-24 without reaching 20 inches, it would become a new record of 14 consecutive seasons without reaching 20". Although not specific to your post, I would also like to point out that the 30-year averages are tallied by calendar year. For example, the 1991-2020 30-year norms, means, and extremes, currently in use by NCEI, runs from 1/1/1991 to 12/31/2020.

Definitely an improvement from 12Z, too! Here are the 18Z GEFS.

The entire run was great! The charts and ensemble maps are still processing, but I'll post when they are done.

Yup, looking that way as well. Plenty of time for improvements.

EPS was great, too for early next week. This is only thru the 18th.

The 12Z Euro was a major step in the right direction and puts down accumulating snows for most of the state. Although surface temperatures remain below freezing at RIC for the event, Euro has some mid-level warmth at 850mb that causes RIC area to mix for a time.

I know what you're trying to convey, this winter has been frustrating. We all feel that way. But as I've mentioned to you before posting the 384hour GFS to prove a point isn't helpful, because things change so drastically beyond 200 hours. It's better to look at the 500mb, particularly the ensembles, to identify trends in the large-scale pattern. Then you can determine whether the pattern will be favorable based on past outcomes.

Here is another slowed down version of the individual members starting at 00z 1/18 to 00z 1/22 that covers the period of interest for the 2nd threat. You can see there are snow hits, but also some rainy ones. I also added the snow maps that includes both threats. Plus, the 500mb picture also show a somewhat favorable look, with the western trough, continued blocking with that vortex over SE Canada which hopefully helps to support a colder look and track farther south, but maybe that is wishful thinking, lol.

The 12Z GEFS continues to signal the 16th threat. But, there are still a fair share of shutouts. We are still several days out and things can improve.

Still a close call on the 12Z GFS for early next week.

One can dream, right? e-33 gave Norfolk 20" and Richmond 14". Almost looks like the blizzard of 1980 at the end.

The 00z EPS wasn't as great as yesterday's 12Z, but it still signals the potential for accumulating snow for the 16-17th and increasingly for the 20th-22nd period. @Rhino16 pointed out that since some members can sway the mean, such as the one that gives Norfolk 20" of snow around the 21st-22nd, I included the 50th percentile.

Thank you, I found it! I never went into that drop-down before. And yes, I can start posting those maps.