Lookout

2 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Ended up with 7.9" of rain...unreal

Cold and breezy this morning..trees may have a hard time today

Thats nuts. Finished with 4.75 here...including a surprising down pour around midnight last night. And to think we have more inches on the way next week. 

11 minutes ago, Jonathang80 said:

Anyone receiving any snow in Georgia?

Got some rain/snow mix a moment ago here and I'm at 39. Only mixed because it was briefly heavy...although there isnt a thing on radar over me so these must be really low topped. Didnt last though. Fox 5 in atlanta showed it pouring snow at their studios a moment ago. 

4.25 of rain so far. Dont remember the last time I've seen gsp and ffc issue so many flash flood warnings. 

9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I know mby has had close to 4” of rain so far and if any of those winds mix down to the surface, it won’t be pretty  

New warning to the south of me. Hoping its shifted enough that I'm out of the highest severe threat..but not the rain. I  only had 1.6 inches when I posted that...now have 3.35.  The amount of water in the pasture here is as high as ive ever seen it...glad I'm not in a low spot. 

Only a few modest gusts so far wind wise

Warned stormed moved just west of me earlier but nothing of note here. Watching storms intensify to the southwest through. Storms look more impressive than the warned one earlier. Given the high winds aloft it's a bit worrisome.

78 freaking degrees for a high today....79 in athens.   Ridiculous. This winter sucks.

On 1/21/2020 at 2:35 PM, Lookout said:

Well tried as hard as I could to see flakes this morning but alas only managed virga. Its beyond sad and embarrassing that winter sucks so much that it I have to  resort to that.

I guess the next sad excuse/fail for  winter weather.... is there  could be a little sleet at the start of precip thur evening due to dry low to mid levels before our exciting  mid to upper 30s rain slams us. 

Looks like some sleet and even snow fell for a brief period at the start in parts of west ga with the heaviest stuff...from  around Carrollton to the north. As expected though it's been brief with a quick changeover to rain. The way this year is going they should consider themselves lucky.

19 here...almost forgot what it was like to be that cold. 

On 1/20/2020 at 11:33 AM, Lookout said:

Something to keep an eye on is maybe some light snow over north ga tonight..hrrr is showing some. (In fact up to an inch or more in the mountains over toward rome). Nav also has been consistent with a little. Despite the dry profiles and runs of everything else, still  wouldn't surprise me to see some meso effects create a small area of flurries/showers into tomorrow morning. Not a huge chance but better than zero which is a lot considering how   horrible this winter has been.

Well tried as hard as I could to see flakes this morning but alas only managed virga. Its beyond sad and embarrassing that winter sucks so much that it I have to  resort to that.

I guess the next sad excuse/fail for  winter weather.... is there  could be a little sleet at the start of precip thur evening due to dry low to mid levels before our exciting  mid to upper 30s rain slams us. 

Something to keep an eye on is maybe some light snow over north ga tonight..hrrr is showing some. (In fact up to an inch or more in the mountains over toward rome). Nav also has been consistent with a little. Despite the dry profiles and runs of everything else, still  wouldn't surprise me to see some meso effects create a small area of flurries/showers into tomorrow morning. Not a huge chance but better than zero which is a lot considering how   horrible this winter has been.

Picked up 3.5  inches of rain since sunday night. Quite a lot more than what I was expecting a few days ago.

1.80 so far....a bit less than west ga/sc. Top gust has been 31...glad those 40 plus gusts didnt happen. Losing power sucks...especially as a result of a cold rain storm. 

3 hours ago, strongwxnc said:

NWS gsp output for system... only if...


.

Would be a hell of a blizzard/icestorm. On top of all the precip 3km nam is showing 40 to 50mph wind gusts over north ga sunday night. .with gusts a bit above that in the higher elevations and around Atlanta. I would think it's a bit overdone but it's been showing gusts as high as 55 near atlanta at its peak. Gfs has gusts into the 30s to near 40 mostly.  Regardless, am a bit worried about power outages with the recent rains. Power was knocked off here the other day for an hour after the frontal passage.

Picked up 2.75 inches here...there was  4 to 5 inches though down toward Augusta. 

27 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I feel like our cold source just has to be rather unimpressive otherwise I feel the cold press would be much better given this look. 

The timing on the euro precip wise is better but compared to earlier runs   It's not as cold nor dry over the mid Atlantic thursday..some 5 to 8 degrees warmer with temps/dps..which obviously means temps downstream arent as cold either. Quite a spread/variability this week among the models that is for sure.

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah we need wave 1 to be slower or wave 2 to be quicker to maximize wintry chances...neither idea is far-fetched.  As far as the cold high goes, the CMC Ens at the surface has 32 deg with 20 deg dewpoint way down in south Georgia Friday morning - just shows the potential even if it's overdone

Yep..wouldn't take much. 

12 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

So the 6z GFS is probably the worst case scenario for this storm. The shortwave “survives” and pairs with a textbook (like, actually stick the modeled high placement and strength in a textbook) CAD scenario that returns the Carolina power grid back to the 1870s.

As I said yesterday these shortwaves that travel across the south west are finicky and praying that they “hold up” or don’t get “strung out” is usually a fools errand. And I still kind of think that.

That being said it is being pretty consistently modeled that a 1040+ high will cross the northern states. And that’s concerning. The “textbook CAD” is typically the toughest ingredient for these systems. 12z models will be worth watching with how that shortwave behaves, because the margin between “chilly day Thursday” and “ice storm” is pretty close.

Although it is more for the Carolinas ...the worst case for most of ne ga would be something a little slower than the 06z run. For north ga the 06z gfs is actually probably too fast with a good  bit of precip falling before temps are cold enough. Plus gfs showing intense precip rates which would cut down on accretion.  Those ice amount maps are way too bullish for ga. Slow it down by 6 to 10 hours and it's a different story. 

Quite impressive caa on that run though thur...30 to 40 knot winds at 925 to 950mb over ga/sc and quite the temp drop over a few hours time.

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Yeah Mr Euro has gone away from the initial wave scenario, and the GFS moved to it this run (and trending that way on the ensemble mean)

The low budget models (JMA & NAVGEM) continue to like the more wintry early wave scenario as well 

I think even if the Friday/2nd wave scenario plays out is correct there is a decent chance of at least advisory level freezing rain for ga/the upstate. Temps/wetbulbs are low enough that freezing temps should hang on through a decent part of the day friday. Depth of subfreezing layer is enough to see a decent wetbulb effect so The warm up the fv3 and especially the euro show friday is probably too fast by several hours at least as usual....with Wetbulbs Friday am in the mid to upper  20s. Euro shows Greater than half inch amounts through noon friday over ne ga and more than 0.25 over the upstate when I believe temps should still be subfreezing. So respectable glazing even with its run imo. 

17 hours ago, NEGa said:

Just waiting for lookout to pop in - he loves glen mf burns haha. It’s way too far out for me to bite but it looks like a good set up at this point. We haven’t had an ice storm like that in over 10 years 

Lol..just saw this ..hes really unbelievable. I cant believe he posted that based on one model run on an event more than a week out...seriously wtf? Hes a strange dude...will down play legit and promising storms in the near term but then do something like that. Him getting slapped down by fellow mets has been  awesome though. 

As for next week...seem like there is  potential if we can get the timing right...Not exactly earth shattering news i know but thats better than nothing. 

12z euro......

Just now, Queencitywx said:

Long way out but the last euro panel is probably a significant ice storm. 

Yep...been a while since we have seen such a promising look at the surface. It's a shame it's so far into fantasy land but it's pretty to look at meteorologically at least. Wonder what the odds of it even being close to what really happens are.

Expecting my 3rd in a row  100 degree high temp...was 101 yesterday. I cant believe this is October... Beyond ridiculous..wildlife and trees are probably confused as hell too lol. Just letting back to normal temps will be a shock to the system. And the dust...ugh...I really really hate drought. 

6 hours ago, gman said:

Finally! Almost an inch of much needed rain. The wind made a mess of the yard, but it was worth it. 

I second that...got .85 here last night and it was desperately needed. Now if only we can get this infuriating heat to go away. 

99 here currently at 2:15. Absolutely ridiculous. This summer and heat  will never end. 

22 minutes ago, ragtop50 said:

With gusts over 200 mph !   Strongest hurricane on record this far north in the Atlantic

Absurd to say the least. I'm amazed it's gone this long without a ewc...wonder what the record for that is too?

20 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Josh Morgerman, crazy person, is right in the path on Great Abaco Island.  https://twitter.com/iCyclone

Always liked josh but him tempting fate with storms like this are a real gamble. Is there anyway structures survive 200mph winds...never mind the storm surge.